I recently gave the allusion of the ethiopian incursion in lower shabelle in line with sharif hassan tactics so I decided to make a thread about the whole amisom
Ethiopia has joined amisom after the letter began to advance into the regions and subsequently proceeded to baidoa
during the last operations, ethiopia was campaigning for to reach as far as jowhar, barawe and kismayo
When this policy did not succeed, they denied uganda to capture jilib wich has forced the amisom boss to resign
Ethiopia has two agendas: firstly by securing these regions it will take the original contract from amisom/uganda like the training of the SNA and giving them logistics or supplying them ammo wich uganda benefits from!
In the security meetings with the donors they often express how they know the somali society more than the rest, not just that they also have a somali region within ethiopia!
Uganda would talk about how they restored peace after ethiopia was defeated and caused the raise of al shabaab, not just that but also mention the communal sensitivities between the two countries!
The other more important reason is to solidify the ethiopian hegemony over the regions and establish a pro-ethiopian alliance in there wich will decide the outcome of the next elections!
As for kismayo, ethiopia has taking advantage from kenyas problems with the somali govt, despite all the AU meetings kenya doesnt seem to give up so ethiopia has suggested djibouti wich could pave the way for her hegemony but all these attempts did not come to fruiton specially after the departure of syralion in a dangerous area
To accelerate the kenyan withdrawal, the somali govt has taken kenya to an international court to settle the water dispute
as expected, if kenya loses it will also lose its interests in the region besides the 2017 elections and will be replaced by ethiopia
Weeks ago, the kenyan FM has claimed that somalia has agreed to settle the issue out of court but this claim was snubbed by the somali govt
Kenya has its eyes on 6 oil blocks inside the somali waters but the somali govts move has kept the foreing companies away for lack of legal clarity.
@dark caucasian...half recognition? Datoore your right its not my analysis rather real politics....right now burundi is accusing ethiopia for cooperating with al shabaab through the D&M wing who may have been infiltrated by sharif hassan. Those who attacked leego have been given safe passage by them....ethiopias strategy is to push back these amisom to xamar and replace them in the shabelle region for the above mentioned reasons.
moryaanta waa iska gun oonan dhaqan misee sharafi laheyn iimaanka leydin ka qaad 
