Lessons for state formation

[James Dahl]

With many decades in the wilderness as the Somali nation cobbles their nation back together again, there have been some hard lessons learned. When states, groups or alliances could reach past Qabyaalad and form big tent groups that welcomed everyone to the table for a share of power and success, from the great clans to their rivals, down to the smaller clans and even to the powerless and despised, the further they reached beyond their own clan and their desire to monopolize power, impossible things became possible.

The strength of people like al-Shabaab, hate what they do and what they represent but they did this, and it was and remains an enormous source of strength for them that they have drawn from. Somaliland in earlier years strived for this goal as well, though they have been having a lot of problems with what could only be described as "political Isaaqism" alienating former partners in the state.

Galmudug's successful conference bringing together a region famous for its disunity is an example of this policy of welcoming everyone to the table and an almost overzealous power sharing agreement that succeeded where 30 years of war had failed.

It appears though that the most enthusiastic backers of the Jubbaland State initiative and the Hiiraan/Shabeelle Dhexe project are ignoring the troubles that came from single clan ambitions and the successes of clan pluralism, and going full steam ahead towards clan dominated states. This process has been especially bad in Jubbaland and the exclusion of smaller clans and high stakes brinksmanship between Absame and Mareexaan in Jubbaland spells big troubles down the road, especially seeing how they each have a foreign power next door backing their ambitions with military and political force.

Jubbaland should take a page out of the successes of pluralist groups and states, and worry more about getting everyone to buy into the state as an equal partner. As it is, we will end up with a state where the majority of the population will feel like they live in occupied territory regardless of which "side" is victorious, because Jubbaland has a diverse population, noone is the majority. Jubbaland is like Galmudug demographically, diverse, fractious, and a historical powderkeg, and those who want to see her bloom should be taking as great pains to ensure every clan buys into the state as Galmudug did recently in her conferences.

[Even123]

James Dhal how can you compare Galmudug with Jub(kenya)land, its like comparing orange with a corrupt apple, Galmudug came to being through the power of the people i.e democracy, while jubkenyaland came through the power of a foreign bullet to subjugate, and I promise you that the same people who came through the power of that foreign back will leave with them.

All in all, Jubkenyaland failed and will stay failed till kenya leaves (and takes with them their garissa stooges) and then a new maamul will be created that consists of its real inhabitants not some fake ones.

[grandpakhalif]

Jubbaland will not succeed because its sheer existence is not supported by the political reality on the ground, a small group supported by the Kenyan Defense Forces cannot continue to survive unabated. Jubbaland requires inclusion for all and that is what is currently missing in its core structure. Deep mistrust coupled with nembedded foreign interference have caused many to despite that state. In fact I can tell you majority of Kismayo's natives (Sheekhal, Marehan, Cawrmale, etc) rather trust Al Shabab than Madoobe. This is not because they entirely oppose the creation of Jubbaland but feel they have little to no political representation in the higher echelons. This spells disaster for the future of this state whose very foundation is rotten to the core, only seeking to profit from Somalia's misery.

[sahal80]

Good observation

these politicians care more about getting votes than resolving the conflict itself but I think its the benefit of who rules in areas of conflicts to take more exclusive measurements and win their support on their own inclination

Jl is a very different region, in the rest of somalia, clans live in a separate settlements so theres no land conflicts....all they have is to come together and form one political entity like galmudug did

Even a sub-state like hiiraan, in beledweyne, all the govts institutions, hospitals, airport, business r found in one clans territory wich comprises 75 percent of the town and the rest r like suburbs

This natural barrier makes it stable town clan-wise bc if others cross the border it will be considered as transgression

In kismayo you got the port in this area, the security in that area, military base in this area, this clan in the center of the town, that clan lives in the town and has no suburbs, coastal and near by clans, this clan lives in the reverine areas, alliance of regional clans....

So its the benefit of who rules to be exclusive and gain more support instead of forming alliance with far off entities that wont help in reality.

[thegoodshepherd]

James since you are an expert on Somali clan matters you will find this easy to understand. Jubaland, that is the administration currently in Kismayo does not plan to expand to areas settled by minorities. It would be foolish to include most of the clans east of the river.
Jubaland will be the three states minus the parts of Jamame and Jilib districts which are on the east side of the river.
Kismayo will lay claim to all three states, but in Lower Juba and Middle Juba it will not attempt to impose itself on the other side of the river.

[RoobleAlWaliid]

Jubbaland is bound to fail

[Jabuutawi]

Were you head of the Somali Desk at Canada's spook agency? Offer your services to one of the provincial governments or the SFG. I am sure they would love to have a grey-haired white guy at their midst, makes them look and feel "international" .

[PrinceNugaalHawd]

James I agree Galmudug Shared their seats fairly.

But in Jubbaland my friend, the 2 Major Clans are Sade & Absame. they need to learn to share and rule together, the Harti are a major power in Kismaayo and the coast. the rest are on the borders of the region but should be given atleast 50% of the seats so they feel included. Jubbaland parliament should be expanded to 89 . The cabinet is 5 Darood 5 others. it should be expanded to 12 others & 12 Darood.

[Bandit]

Hutus ferocious and them other nobody's in the north

[Tanikaze]

As I see it there is no such thing as Jubaland and I doubt there will be for some time to come. This region/s is conflict prone and Somalis never learn their lesson.

[knet]

James, your either fully do not understand the Somali state formation process or are being totally bias.

You praise Galmudug and step on Jubbaland. Both have errors in them but Galmudug stepped over the whole state formation process and it's creation is a step back rather than a step forward. It's a complete violation of due process and the Federal Constitution. It doesn't today and will not in the further qualify to even be a Federal State if the constitution is to be up held.

And if the Constitution does not get up held, well there is no Somalia let alone a state called Galmudug.

It's unfortunate but lesson have not been learned, the mistakes taking place today are on course to undue the whole state formation process.

[theyuusuf143]

James since you are an expert on Somali clan matters you will find this easy to understand. Jubaland, that is the administration currently in Kismayo does not plan to expand to areas settled by minorities. It would be foolish to include most of the clans east of the river.
Jubaland will be the three states minus the parts of Jamame and Jilib districts which are on the east side of the river.
Kismayo will lay claim to all three states, but in Lower Juba and Middle Juba it will not attempt to impose itself on the other side of the river.

thats your own opinion. jubaland constitution does not exclude any of the places you mentioned.


@James Dahl

One isaaq group may sometimes take most of the political power in Somaliland temporarily like HJ does today . but the Somaliland country is not based on qabil. unlike other states Somaliland is capable to keep its people together by Force, tolerance,persuasion and compromise without using any foreign assistance. no matter who is power Somaliland government uses all the above methods to ensure its rule over the whole Former British protectorate.

Non isaaqs who integrate the system have better political chances than isaaq themselves. in fact Somaliland's longest serving leader Dahir rayale was not isaaq and yes he was not nominated by few people. he was directly elected by the people defeating the most popular isaaq politician Silanyo the former leader of SNM democratically. no matter how Somaliland clans don't like each an other the state government see them equal.

[Grant]

The Gosha/Jareerweyn have a large population in the Jamaame to Buale area. Any chance of a Rahanweyn or Lower Shabelle alliance?

Where do you see them fitting into a Federal state?

[PrinceNugaalHawd]

Grant what large pop? have you checked Jamame & Jilib on google map? its a villages with few buildings, Jilib & Jamame are settled not only Jareer but others like Bimaal, Sheikhal, Galjecel, and so on? from Kismaayo to Lower shabelle were all these people are concentrated its like less than a hour drive, with no major Degaan , while you have the Darood from Kismaayo to Gedo, and multi medium size towns and villages. Rahanweyne settle the Badiye outskirts of JL border with South west state. Galmudug has 60+ hawiye seats and JL has only 49 Darood seats, and half the Cabinet is non darood.

Yusuf Sl is a just a Isaaq state sxb.

[Arcturus]

Majority rule minority rights!

2 x Darood states with 5 x provinces (constitutionally 5.5 provinces)
2 x Hawiye states with 4 x provinces (constitutionally 3.5 provinces)
1 x D&M state with 3 x provinces (with the intention of 6 provinces)

Everyone else is a spectator or passenger in federalism. devolution of the 4.5 system to a 2.5 system.

Somalia was never intended to get past the structural phase of federalism. For when it does, Every election system you try to apply to "Somali-federalism" creates an instant stalemate. How many federal states will suspend their association with muuqdisho daily/weekly/monthly.

In other News Djibouti president is likely to change constitution once again to allow him to hold office for a 4th term! which ranks low on the comical scale as compared to Ethiopian ruling party staying in power another term with victory of 100% in 2015 elections!

fallback plan required not for "IF" but rather "WHEN" this system fails or stagnates!