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I've noticed there's a poltical alliance between Mj and Abgaal which is used to undermine hg and marexaan. I want to see a habar gedir weliba sacad siciid president

I think an Isaaq candidate has batter shot than a darood

The reality is who has the most $$$ Dooros are Broke. There will be a fierce competition among dooros on who will become the PM

I want this guy to win 2016 elections

Not a chance. It makes no sense for Darood to close their "borders" and yet eat HAG cake in Xamar.

This is what I said previously.

Awr rastaale are u saying sh dalxiis or culusow will come back what about farmaajo u mean he is wasting his time lol

Cullusow returning I put him in the odds of 25-40%.

Abgaal becoming president in 2017/2018 is the 99.98% mark.

Marehan PM 70%

Isaaq FM 75%

Ogaden defence portfolio 68%

MJ finance minister 73%

HG interior minister 62%

Dhulo aviation portfolio 56%

Rahawein Speaker 98.28%

Rahanwein education portfolio 69%

Who wants to bet $800 with me?

Sahal come in.

I expect some kind of Abgaal, Marehan, Rahanwein, Isaaq, Dhulo alliance to keep things balanced and ensure not only they deny MJ PM but they keep Marehaan PM and Abgaal President in cohesion.

If Abgaal president appoints Farmajo as his PM the neighbors will create all kinds of obstacles.

The gentleman agreement is deny HG president/MJ president and MJ pm.

Too much conflict otherwise and neighbors and IC have agreed Abgaal is the most stable leadership in the south.

Nope. The likelihood of daarood man sitting in Villa Somalia as a president are as real as SL getting fully recognized as an independent country by the rest of the world. So yeah, not happening in our lifetimes.

It will depend on the D&M king makers aka Sharif hassan but this guy dislikes Dblock for two reasons

1/ he hails from the asharaaf minority within the D&M that's why hes moving the capital to barawe and the big liisaan and hadamo guys like adan madoobe, saransoor are anti-HAG shaaati gaduudists who were allied with yeey

So he's careful of the repeat of that scenario and sees a leader from these guys is abit stronger and untrustworthy than the HAG leader also a HAG leader means they r in the second position per realpolitik

2/ He wants to be the godfather of " the 6 regions" and this puts him diract clash with ahmed madobe like the issue of kismayo parliament and a dblock president will use kenya but there maybe some exceptions like CCC who has been cooperating with sharif hassan since sh sharif era and this time. The UAE ambassador was campaigning for CCC bc hes closer to Russia and can be used against Turkey so he was suggesting to all regional leaders to vote for him including Sharif hassan but the latter have suggested to him that they can take just garguurte without his dj group like he did with sh sharif-ditched his own al sheekh crew like janaqow, sh abdulqadir, abdikarim jamac etc wich made him weaker-

So the UAE have invited garguurte about funding his campaign if he ditches his dj crew and you know this guy is so desprate he already has issue with cabdikarim guleed who's a sacad so he's bringing in some saleebaan ala sheekhs(was his name shabeel? I forgot it...the owner of hotel SYL besides odowaa) seems like casha haji will not be back

Saleebaan have order and more organized than the rest of HG...ever heard of sir saleebaan? The reason is bc they have been at war with some mx janjawiid in 1985 so they have seen wars and were looking for stability by 1991

So looks like he won their three seats li anoo waa is dhageystaan just like hawadle

But he got all these abgaal candidates; like sharif, osoble, jibriil, badiyow, geedi, hassan, americo

Plus the HG candidates

Reer waqooyi are now allied with Sharif hassan in another anti-HAG scenario kkk

At the end Sharif hassan will vote for who has more support so he can continue with the next stage

It's real hard to predect im just sure garguurte is out

Anaga sideedeena ukun meel fiicanaa dhiganeynaa.warqada UN waad aragtaa ugaas hassan aa masuulka ah. Baladweyne lagu doorani xalanaana toos loogu diri meesha doorashada ka dhacayso

good points there sahal u are right the dm group are the most decisive in the elections most of the time, how about sharif dalixiis what are his chances dabin case wants to make a try and i am hearing he is teaming up with his old fellow Faroole. the HG candidates horta as hawdian said HG and MJ have it very difficult to run for president and with in the darood MJ seems to be the most active of trying to lead.

This so called "election" will be staged and the candidate is already selected by international community in my opinion. all the MPs will just be paid off, like the previous "election".

chances are his going to be a Hawiye due to the fact that they inhabit the area around the capital, the most unstable & volatile part of Somalia at the moment.

good points there sahal u are right the dm group are the most decisive in the elections most of the time, how about sharif dalixiis what are his chances dabin case wants to make a try and i am hearing he is teaming up with his old fellow Faroole. the HG candidates horta as hawdian said HG and MJ have it very difficult to run for president and with in the darood MJ seems to be the most active of trying to lead.

PL+JL have 80 mps, galmudug+hiirshabelle have 79 mps

Southwest has lesser number but the biggest number per state followed by waqooyi then PL, JL, hiirshabelle, galmudug

So the southwest has the decisive number and more organized or fully controlled by sharif hassan

Waqooyis have no leader and their votes r the most on sale since they don't care but this time they feel like being targeted so they have been gathering and making deals with anti-xamar and PL camps like baydhabo

There is a scenario of waqooyi speaker, D&M pm and HAG and Dblok have to fight on the president

If CCC accepts this deal HAG will be in trouble....so these waqooyi-baydhabo contacts r still going on

If we speak for the two rival traditional camps, CCC has more support in JL and PL than garguurte has in GM and hiirshabelle

Even if a HAG candidate wins this time he will not have not power as some mjs like faroole have another card of a weak HAG president and strong mj pm

I don't like to clash with my HAG friends as i rebented lol but this is what we have bee warning from; Refusing cooperation. CCC house is save now he wants to take hiiraan and dhuusamareeb by putting hiirshabelle fate in madasha so if he postpones it to the next govt like our mps asked for why not when gargarguurte supports his clan and jowhar.....politics r about interests atleast we expect different arrangements or different place...still there is cadaado vs dhuusamareeb

He can't fire him bc he has no constitutional power after Sept 10


Garguurte was using ina carte for jowhar while CCC was away....CCC knew this but he wanted inuu beerta galsho so he can take the other half!

We don't like it but if your refusing cooperation what can I do.
http://www.jowhar.com/saraakiil-ka-soco ... ay-jowhar/

He stopped going to dhuusamareeb bc of garguurte insisting mahad salaad to be part of his wafdi wich is not welcomed in dhuusamareeb! Now he will be in his own watch out!
http://saadaalnews.net/?p=113240

Yap. Farmajo

good points there sahal u are right the dm group are the most decisive in the elections most of the time, how about sharif dalixiis what are his chances dabin case wants to make a try and i am hearing he is teaming up with his old fellow Faroole. the HG candidates horta as hawdian said HG and MJ have it very difficult to run for president and with in the darood MJ seems to be the most active of trying to lead.

PL+JL have 80 mps, galmudug+hiirshabelle have 79 mps

Southwest has lesser number but the biggest number per state followed by waqooyi then PL, JL, hiirshabelle, galmudug

So the southwest has the decisive number and more organized or fully controlled by sharif hassan

Waqooyis have no leader and their votes r the most on sale since they don't care but this time they feel like being targeted so they have been gathering and making deals with anti-xamar and PL camps like baydhabo

There is a scenario of waqooyi speaker, D&M pm and HAG and Dblok have to fight on the president

If CCC accepts this deal HAG will be in trouble....so these waqooyi-baydhabo contacts r still going on

If we speak for the two rival traditional camps, CCC has more support in JL and PL than garguurte has in GM and hiirshabelle

Even if a HAG candidate wins this time he will not have not power as some mjs like faroole have another card of a weak HAG president and strong mj pm

I don't like to clash with my HAG friends as i rebented lol but this is what we have bee warning from; Refusing cooperation. CCC house is save now he wants to take hiiraan and dhuusamareeb by putting hiirshabelle fate in madasha so if he postpone it to the next govt like our mod asked for why not when gargarguurte supports his clan and jowhar.....politics r about interests atleast we expect different arrangements or different place...still there is cadaado vs dhuusamareeb

He can't fire him bc he has no constitutional power after Sept 10


Garguurte was using ina carte for jowhar while CCC was away....CCC knew this but he wanted inuu beerta galsho so he can take the other half!

We don't like it but if your refusing cooperation what can I do.
http://www.jowhar.com/saraakiil-ka-soco ... ay-jowhar/

Our fate is in D&M

at farhan


Cumareey oo isbuufinaaya oo la soo baxay wajigiisa dhabta ah baa kulokulomo badan wada iyo garguurtoo xanaaqsan

At xasilooni siyaasadeed

good points there sahal u are right the dm group are the most decisive in the elections most of the time, how about sharif dalixiis what are his chances dabin case wants to make a try and i am hearing he is teaming up with his old fellow Faroole. the HG candidates horta as hawdian said HG and MJ have it very difficult to run for president and with in the darood MJ seems to be the most active of trying to lead.

PL+JL have 80 mps, galmudug+hiirshabelle have 79 mps

Southwest has lesser number but the biggest number per state followed by waqooyi then PL, JL, hiirshabelle, galmudug

So the southwest has the decisive number and more organized or fully controlled by sharif hassan

Waqooyis have no leader and their votes r the most on sale since they don't care but this time they feel like being targeted so they have been gathering and making deals with anti-xamar and PL camps like baydhabo

There is a scenario of waqooyi speaker, D&M pm and HAG and Dblok have to fight on the president

If CCC accepts this deal HAG will be in trouble....so these waqooyi-baydhabo contacts r still going on

If we speak for the two rival traditional camps, CCC has more support in JL and PL than garguurte has in GM and hiirshabelle

Even if a HAG candidate wins this time he will not have not power as some mjs like faroole have another card of a weak HAG president and strong mj pm

I don't like to clash with my HAG friends as i rebented lol but this is what we have bee warning from; Refusing cooperation. CCC house is save now he wants to take hiiraan and dhuusamareeb by putting hiirshabelle fate in madasha so if he postpones it to the next govt like our mps asked for why not when gargarguurte supports his clan and jowhar.....politics r about interests atleast we expect different arrangements or different place...still there is cadaado vs dhuusamareeb

He can't fire him bc he has no constitutional power after Sept 10


Garguurte was using ina carte for jowhar while CCC was away....CCC knew this but he wanted inuu beerta galsho so he can take the other half!

We don't like it but if your refusing cooperation what can I do.
http://www.jowhar.com/saraakiil-ka-soco ... ay-jowhar/

He stopped going to dhuusamareeb bc of garguurte insisting mahad salaad to be part of his wafdi wich is not welcomed in dhuusamareeb! Now he will be in his own watch out!
http://saadaalnews.net/?p=113240

Check your inbox

Baydhabo is the actual power house of koonfur indeed who looks after the interests of the region...remember when garguurte let us down by letting ahmed madobe go away with his kismayo parliament without many native clans untill he added 10 more clans including us bc of Sharif hassans motion?

Now baydhabo is backing xuquuqda unionist against PL! Kkk

There is where the majority vote comes from. Yaasaatir! Just hope they don't vote for garguurte.


Listen to this analyst
http://www.radiodalsan.com/2016/09/07/d ... aha-dhexe/

Sharif hassan has some thing in common with sheikh ali jimcaale
"He knew how to play a clan politics card"