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great analysis. yes ahmed madobe has publically asked mps to vote for sharif. this will split JL mps on clan bases where mx will stick to farmajo

do I really care! That herd mentality has long deserted me. I dont even know how and when! May be it just realised that I wasnt the right habitat for her! While most Somalis pretend to see the bigger picture while always rooting for their Qabiil. I came to the conclusion that my Qabiil is my constituency, I will use it to attain personal power and once I gain that power, I will use it to further the welfare and protect the wellbeing of the Somali nation and its beautyful beaches for I realised that my Ogaadeens interest lies in the strenght of the Somali state. For me thou, my Ogaadeen must always be strong before I take any other step forward. Mine is sophisticated Gandi strategy, while urs is feebleminded tribal Admed Madobe strategy

TeeriReturns

I absolutely enjoyed reading your post, the strategy is marvellous, I can tell you right now the whole of Galmudug will be voting for Xidig as speaker.

You have done something unprecedented in history, your chess move has caused a run of panic I haven't seen before, Farmaajo is the most Anti P/land Darood that I have ever known, is now grovelling at their feet.

Your biggest risk right now is this rift between Sakiin and Jawaari which it looks like the Farmaajo/CC camp have instigated, as long as Sakiin doesn't announce he is no longer running, it's game over and the speaker position is yours and you are right, he can't be sacked like the PM.

You have to realise the reason why each MX PM was being sacked and not the MJ, it had little to do with HAG, most of it was being orchestrated by the self anointed Boqoro in puntland, whom weren't happy with MX surpassing them, the same way they were the first to rebel against Barre.

HAG tried the strategy to get MX the PM but time after time they blow it when they return from Garowe, they end up becoming more Pro Puntland then Puntland themselves, they would come back insulting HAG and taking very brazen Anti Xamar stances falling right into P/land traps they have set for them. They were counting on them being so stupid and shallow and take this Darood mantra literally.

Which resulted in the subsequent motions, remember the famous Saacid "wiilka quruxda badnaa" cheer leading protests for him when he went Garowe, only to stab him in the back with a motion they sponsored.

My Problem with MX/Dhullo'z and Warsangeli's in general was never about patriotism, I don't doubt their patriotism at all, I just despise how when things go tough they always grovel towards the self appointed Boqoro to not just their own determent but the entire nation, and to be honest they are not even Somali anyway.

I warned about this with Farmaajo and my prediction has come through, he is now grovelling at their feet, if they pull this off and it looks very likely now, Beesha O.G will go down in history books. All this "Doqonka" talk will come to bite them right up the ass.

O.Gs proved during USC, they are not tribe patriots but always go for the greater good, and history attests to this, I am praying this comes true, welcome to the game sxb!

Btw, what do u mean an Ogaden will never be PM or President? Are u saying other Somalis are not going to vote for them? Last I checked Marehan MPs were 14 and Majerten had 18 MPs while Ogaden MPS were 13! A difference of only 5 the biggest and 1. Are u saying if a President appoints an Ogaden PM, he is not gonna be endorsed by the Somali Parlaiment?!

i remember hussein halane iyo war ha nagu barinina kkk

the man had huge enemy

madobe strategy is aligned with xamar but he had prior clash with gargurte so he may be looking for someone different

why xamar? bc OG officials in kenya, kenya itself and PL have a post- al shabaab plan wich is an autonomous democratic JL and only anti-xamar guys like Gandhi, yuulka who r aligned with PL and foreign companies can work here

madobe wants to rule as a warlord and thats why hes inclined to ethiopia as intersection meet between him and garguurte or farah abdulqadir to be exact.

Btw, what do u mean an Ogaden will never be PM or President? Are u saying other Somalis are not going to vote for them? Last I checked Marehan MPs were 14 and Majerten had 18 MPs while Ogaden MPS were 13! A difference of only 5 the biggest and 1. Are u saying if a President appoints an Ogaden PM, he is not gonna be endorsed by the Somali Parlaiment?!

Absame has 12, (Ogaden has 11 of that and one for Bartire,)

Majeerten has 12,

Marehan have 14 (abdullahi yusuf gave them 9 but took a few more from Ogaden and MJ after MR threatened to side with Hawiye, reluctantly Ogadena and MJ agreed swalloed their spit and agreed to shed a few MPs from amongst themsleves and give it to MR to appease them.

Dhulbahnate has 8, warsengali has 5, leelkase has 5 and the remaing 4 is split between awrtable/dashiishle 2 mps each.

arab salax has one but from the .5 minority camp, embarrassing we pushed arab salax to the minorty camp, i blame the puntland groups,

12+12+14+8+5+5+2+2= 60

Absame= 12
MJ=12
MR=14
dhulbahante= 8
warsengali= 5
leelkase =5
dashiishley=2
awrtable = 2

=60

if MJ and Absame did not give 6 more to MR, Absame would have had 15 and MJ 15, but they were so worried of MR being in the hawiye pocket they agreed to it reluctantly, but that shows they are the nobles of darood for agreeing to do that, thus MR has 14 MPs even though MR has only 5 degaans from gedo and galgaduud purely resided by whilst OG has 11 degaans from the two jubbas and bakool purely resided by them,

@ Terry,

You are the one who quoted me, go back and see for yourself dhilayahay shawaad Xabashi qudhquudhisa. Who is following whom then?

I could care less about your (zoo) politics. I am blessed to have a country and a region the size of Virginia within Ethiopia as my own, .

Wallahi BILAAHY I HAD A DREAM THIS MORNING ABOUT SOMALI ELECTIONS AND CUMAR BUUR HAD WON IT ... MIND YOU I HATE THAT FUUSTO WITH PASSION.

Jawaari said he is running for the speaker of the Parliament, he said he received requests from many politicians to put his hand up again for his current job so I think he will be tough to beat.

But the D&M deal with Sakiin was that they will run only for the presidency, the fact that he announced it and Sakiin hasn't announced he is no longer running for presidency, but in fact got his other D&M stooge to also announce he is running for speaker today, tells me there is a rift and shift of politics, they never really liked each other anywa.

Btw, what do u mean an Ogaden will never be PM or President? Are u saying other Somalis are not going to vote for them? Last I checked Marehan MPs were 14 and Majerten had 18 MPs while Ogaden MPS were 13! !

The other Darood's won't vote for you, they see you as a minority and compared to them within Somalia you are, I personally don't have this problem myself, your greatest obstacles are your own kin and have always been.

If a HAG picked an O.G as a PM all hell will break loose, hell it even almost broke loose when MX was appointed PM, you have the poison of a self anointed Boqoro amongst you, according to them, they lead Darood and according to myself I don't think they are even Somali, but there you have it.

Good analysis smooth,

but i want to add some points, no hell will break lose, shit changes in political constantly, i dont see what influence MJs have in somalia anymore, hawiye no longer needs daroods, in fact i thing D&M has more influence now and jubbaland and south west state have same infleunce if not more than puntland, infact jubbaland and south west have more MPs residing there with various tribes than puntland which is pure darood, thus the clans leading jubbaland and south west, OG and D&M have more influence now, things have changed in somalia, smell the coffee chaps,

who ever in a million years thought ethiopia will be in such a turmoil that ahmara and oromos will be united against an alliance of Ogaden/Tigre and Canfars? who ever thought Tigres will be asking for Ogadens to make peace with them and beg for an alliance against ahmara and oromo, who thought ethiopians will be so confused with civil war it will leave somalia to focus on her internal strive? it will request foreign diplomats can not leave adis ababa in fear of spies for foreign nations like egypt trying to distablise ethiopia?

who ever thought eriteria and the US will become freinds again after years of sactions with an axis of UAE/US and eriterian that will worry ethiopia?

who ever thought Ogaden will stop fighting Ethiopia and focus all her energy on jubbaland creation? 5 years ago OG was having soldiers trying by Yusud Haji former OG kenyan defence minister near garrisa, 5 years ago, and now they have this state with 52 maps, almost 20% of somalis MPs of various tribes udner her control, more mps than puntland or galgaduud combined,

our MJ cousins had a unique situation where we were absent from Jubbaland let alone somali politics as we were so focused on DDSI, MR were so aligned with HG and dhulbahante and warsenglai just did not give a shit and actually had scores to settler against their harti cousins to the point they would give las canod to the idoors and prefer to join somaliland

we are back and fully focused, OG has not been involved in somali politics since Siad bare AUN was ousted, MJ have this self delusion to claim leadership for darood but the sleeping giant, the lion has been absent from somali poltiicics but is now back with several cards on his sleeve no hawiye president want to be can ignore,

there is a group daroods have to be concenred about, they are rising, D&M have clout nowadays and they have support from dir, there is potentiall 120 mps there, dont forget a lot of somalis dir reside in south west state, and their Mps are not scarred around Somalia, just south west, i belive they and OGs will disturb the current status quo because both OGs and D&M have states like MJs and are fully focused on getting their share of the cake, OGs were focused on DDSI and D& M was absent for so long but they have their focus fully on somalia, i think they are a power to recon with, watch rthis space from these two

OG doesn't need darood votes, it amounts to not much any way when there are only 60 mps and jubbland has some 30 of those MPs, they have two cards to play with, first is the MPs they can influence in jubbaland of various tribes and the influence they can provide to the somali president in Ethiopia and Kenya. jubbland alone has 20% of somalias MPs and 50% of darood MPs under her control, this is why they are constantly being visited by candidates,

i believe before it was what your tribe can bring in votes to the president, now its what can your tribe bring to somalia across the east african regional influence too, we can bring more infleunce to somalia from the regional side but we want speaker position, we dont want weak PM position who can be sacked by president if her dares disagrees with him, and hawiye will have the Presidency no matter what any one thinks,

OG and D&M just want from being the equivalent of Alaska in terms of electoral influence to becoming Texas or California and worst yet for MJ and MR is they are Hungary and influential as they have states they control and more MPs of various tribes they can influence and sweeten the deal with potential jobs in jubbaland/south west state if they fall inline.

@ Terry,

You are the one who quoted me, go back and see for yourself dhilayahay shawaad Xabashi qudhquudhisa. Who is following whom then?

I could care less about your (zoo) politics. I am blessed to have a country and a region the size of Virginia within Ethiopia as my own, .

shut up and behave your self warya,

Btw, what do u mean an Ogaden will never be PM or President? Are u saying other Somalis are not going to vote for them? Last I checked Marehan MPs were 14 and Majerten had 18 MPs while Ogaden MPS were 13! A difference of only 5 the biggest and 1. Are u saying if a President appoints an Ogaden PM, he is not gonna be endorsed by the Somali Parlaiment?!

i remember hussein halane iyo war ha nagu barinina kkk

the man had huge enemy

madobe strategy is aligned with xamar but he had prior clash with gargurte so he may be looking for someone different

why xamar? bc OG officials in kenya, kenya itself and PL have a post- al shabaab plan wich is an autonomous democratic JL and only anti-xamar guys like Gandhi, yuulka who r aligned with PL and foreign companies can work here

madobe wants to rule as a warlord and thats why hes inclined to ethiopia as intersection meet between him and garguurte or farah abdulqadir to be exact.

sahal Ahmed madoobe had the votes of somali tribes just the way galgaduud, Pl and south west state and hirshabeel had votes, he was democratically elected by electors, dont forget hirshabeel has ethiopian, Djibouti soldiers, southwest and Xamar all have foreign armies,

great analysis. yes ahmed madobe has publically asked mps to vote for sharif. this will split JL mps on clan bases where mx will stick to farmajo

sahel, Mr has 14 MPs, there are 52 Mps in jubbaland of various clans, Mr can vote for farmajo all they want, mr only has 7 federal mps from gedo,

HSM has become desperate since we endorsed sharif, we dont really care who gets what as long as we get speaker position, hawiye will win presdeint, heck abgal will win it any ways, this is why we told all OGs to fall behind Xidiq and not to compete against him, whilst MJs have 5 guys running for pm, and Mr has another dude running against farmajo, its good not to have lots of guys running for pm, president etc,. they should just have one man running for one position other wise you will spread yourself too thin and confuse potential supporters,

Sad state of affairs in the once proud nation. The Hutu are nothing short of opportunist criminals masquerading as politicians. They will sell everything from the trees, to the seas, to their women.

The Ogaden on the other hand are zombies, directly controlled by enemy foreign powers. They will work restless till they please their masters...

It pains me to say the only sane people left seem to be the Marexaans...sad times ahead

but i want to add some points, no hell will break lose, shit changes in political constantly, i dont see what influence MJs have in somalia anymore, hawiye no longer needs daroods, in fact i thing D&M has more influence now and jubbaland and south west state have same infleunce .

Teeri

Dude I enjoy reading your post, I haven't seen you on here before, were the hell were you? Your spot on, as I wrote a while back, Qabiil has become totally irrelevant in the Somali political sphere, it's all about interest based politics now.

While you were busy in DDS and NFD, the first people to split into interest based camps was HG, followed by MX and now Abgaal joined the block, no matter what I did, I couldn't explain to people why there was so many fraction in Galmudug even those that were well informed.

DDS played a big role, so did Iran and Turkey in the interest based divisions rather then Qabiil, you had Sacad/Saleeban/Ceyr on both camps and since the Turkey-Qatar-Ethiopia (DDS) Axis have united with each other, the frictions went away, Iran was cornered as a result and the Ahlu sunnah opposition died.

Everyone was surprised about this except me, the same story when madoobe had conflict with HSM, P/land were used as pawns to put pressure on Damul Jadiid camp, while undercover Guleed was running the negotiations to smooth over the differences and once that was achieved P/land was tossed to a side, because the old lady served her purpose. This is why you saw Gaas talk about independence for the first time in their history.

The same occurred during the Mudug conflict, the same happened during the Kaxandaale/Dhacdeere conflicts with DDS, they weren't really DDS conflict but provoked by some Wegerdhac militia's within, instigated by P/land but these guys were itching for a fight with us for years.

Ileey reprimanded them and fired the lealkase commander of that unit, and you saw the rapprochement in Jigjiga with Guleed, I was amazed when an insider told me the story, that same wagardhac militia's was later on used to massacre their rival MX sub-clan in Caabudwaaq to cause Galmudug collapse, due to the P/land orchestrated Galgaluud Sare failure.

It's now or never for her, if CC doesn't do anything now, and it looks highly unlikely he will, it's game-over for the foreseeable future, and we will move towards interest based camps and axis, so far, walaalaha wardheere if they pull this off, it will be recorded as the greatest coup and chess move in this century for Somalis, you have my full support.

Sad state of affairs in the once proud nation. The Hutu are nothing short of opportunist criminals masquerading as politicians. They will sell everything from the trees, to the seas, to their women.

The Ogaden on the other hand are zombies, directly controlled by enemy foreign powers. They will work restless till they please their masters...

It pains me to say the only sane people left seem to be the Marexaans...sad times ahead

Stop crying, it looks like your suffering from Stockholm Syndrome which your love for Barre fantasies and his planes, no tribe is more of a stooge then your treacherous double whammy Habro alliance, you can't even do justice to your own kin never mind others.

In fact as a HJ your only half Somali, so you have at least an excuse for your beggary, worship and mourning for Xabashi cock, no clan sacrificed more man in the war against the Xabashi's then O.G, while your masters were handing over their people without even being threatened.

At that same time more then 30 HG were slaughtered in Dhuusamareeb protecting a single O.G from the Xabashi's, with far weaker weapons, your shamelessness went so far you didn't even resist handing over innocent O.G women to them, you sick twisted buffoon, don't ever talk about Somali pride, you Habar Habusheed spawn.

You were using Somali shillings before Kulmiye and were pro somaliweyne before that, now that there is a chance of you losing, there are videos of your members declaring their love for Somaliweyne and Xamar like the true beggar that you are, but I will welcome you to the Somaliweyne fold, we need your diversity, but until then, I will karbaash for every time you defecate and insult noble people.

TeeriReturns

I absolutely enjoyed reading your post, the strategy is marvellous, I can tell you right now the whole of Galmudug will be voting for Xidig as speaker.

You have done something unprecedented in history, your chess move has caused a run of panic I haven't seen before, Farmaajo is the most Anti P/land Darood that I have ever known, is now grovelling at their feet.

Your biggest risk right now is this rift between Sakiin and Jawaari which it looks like the Farmaajo/CC camp have instigated, as long as Sakiin doesn't announce he is no longer running, it's game over and the speaker position is yours and you are right, he can't be sacked like the PM.

You have to realise the reason why each MX PM was being sacked and not the MJ, it had little to do with HAG, most of it was being orchestrated by the self anointed Boqoro in puntland, whom weren't happy with MX surpassing them, the same way they were the first to rebel against Barre.

HAG tried the strategy to get MX the PM but time after time they blow it when they return from Garowe, they end up becoming more Pro Puntland then Puntland themselves, they would come back insulting HAG and taking very brazen Anti Xamar stances falling right into P/land traps they have set for them. They were counting on them being so stupid and shallow and take this Darood mantra literally.

Which resulted in the subsequent motions, remember the famous Saacid "wiilka quruxda badnaa" cheer leading protests for him when he went Garowe, only to stab him in the back with a motion they sponsored.

My Problem with MX/Dhullo'z and Warsangeli's in general was never about patriotism, I don't doubt their patriotism at all, I just despise how when things go tough they always grovel towards the self appointed Boqoro to not just their own determent but the entire nation, and to be honest they are not even Somali anyway.

I warned about this with Farmaajo and my prediction has come through, he is now grovelling at their feet, if they pull this off and it looks very likely now, Beesha O.G will go down in history books. All this "Doqonka" talk will come to bite them right up the ass.

O.Gs proved during USC, they are not tribe patriots but always go for the greater good, and history attests to this, I am praying this comes true, welcome to the game sxb!

i had an hawiye say to me in his shop the hawiye will no longer make mj or mr pm, he used that word, he said we will give it to more influential clans, not someone who bends over to our power, they want someone who can bring someong on the table toehr than tribe, they want influence, somalia wants money and unfortunately the UN sits in Kenya and addis ababa, let be hnest, this is where somalia is control from, the real government sits there,

are you aware Somalia was refused to get a new currency by IMF as we have 6 bllion in debt, dollars, mostly riba increasing due to previous loans, also the UN mostly wants kenya and ethiopia to agree to it before we can commence, this is how weak we are, but the next president wants more regional influence to rebuild somalia, and this is where we can help,

have you noticed how since hawiyes clinched presidency they have weakend the PM position so badly its a humiliation, i hear lots of MJs hate cumur bercause he is a lab dog for the president,

mjs are maskiin, they are not as influential nowadays as they were under cabdullahi yusuf, you lot should not fear them, when you bring the guns out they cower and ask for peace, not so good at fighting, look at how long sacad was attacking galkaciyo and they could not dislodge a small sub sub sub clan of HG. lets give them a break,

the biggest and silliest mistake HG like sacad has done was go to war with Ogaden DDSI, we brought cabdulkareem to jigjiga for peace talk, but we were so disappointed, DDSI has now two vice presidents, all OG, second one is Makaahil OG, they have always had good alliance with sacad, heck we even claim sacad is OG who got lost, we wanted an alliance with them but they fucked it up by attacking us, we know what happened when liyu police were sent, but i hope we can bring back the brotherly allaince, they should vote for Xidiq definitely and they should know we are not interesting in helping puntland in their war against them, liyu police will never get involved, we simply dont give a shit as long as an OG doesn't get killed on the border,

MJs control the smaller daroods, MJs also know how to influence abgal HAG but never habar Gidir, the dont see eye to eye with mareehan, in fact they are like water and elctricty and Mjs know to keep their distance from the giant lion OG, , i remmeebr when Mjs from puntland were returned from ksimayo airport, we simply kicked them out because Ahmed gave the port contract to an OG guy with UAE money, they wanted to get the port , we told them bossoo belongs to them, berbera to idoor, xamar port to hawiye and kismayo port to OG, , the were shocked, they were depaotred from the airport, they learned their lesson,

OG doesn't need daroods now, they are not significant, things have changed in somalia, and each clan for himself, before it was the era of world lords of threatening to destabilize somalia with a few men with tecnicals and cabi bile with guns, things have changed, now its what can you bring to the table to help somalia, not cries and btiching

we have in 2016 increased the number of our Mps in federal ethiopia from 27 to 54, and senators from 6 to 12 (out of 100 upper house) ethiopia is on her knees, we are one of the most patriotic somali clans, we know what its like to see a weak somalia, we would not have lost so many sons during the last 20 years of OG single handedness war with wthiopia if a strong Somalia existed, we want to support a strong somalia where tribe is not the main influence but somalinimo and islam, you will not get that from certain somali tribes like Mj and MR and idoors, and you know what? we dont mind a hawiye being president, we already have enough land and our own federal region in Ethiopia that will be recognized if ethiopia breaks up insha Allah with its own flag, army funded by the british and parliament, so we are not hell bent on always being the first leader of somalia, alhamdulilah we have enough land, this is why somalia needs to watch out for tribalisitc tribes who will rather see Somalia destroyed if they are not in charge,

laslty, farmojo is the biggest hater of Ogadens, he hates them so much that he will grovel to putland to get a chance, he will be placed in prison by cabdi if he dares to get involved in jubbaland in a negative way, we ate two former marehaan PMs fro breakfast who were anti jubbaland =anti OG,

who ever is the nest president, the first thing he will do is visit Jigjiga to get some reality check, mark my words bro, OG is back in Somali politics and influencial like the days of Siad bare Aun.

One thing i really want to add is that i am really disappointed by hawiye bro, i have noticed a fear from the hawiyes for OGs, we dont mind if hawiye is president but they need to stop the fear, we need a united somalia but hawiyes i know are so fearful of OGs its unbelievable, as long as we get strong regional states where my rights are not infringed, i dont care who rules xamar as long as he doesn't curtail my economic or political rights, he can fly around the world calling himself president, he is after all a Muslim and a somali, also this other label hutus have of calling us OGs Ethiopians who dont belong to jubbaland, never mind the fact that i was fighting the British in kismayo in the 1880s and also how did i get to the NFD if i dont live in jubbaland? did i fly over it? its like saying a tribe lives in France and Poland but jumped over Germany?

i will fly the flag of Somalis above the jubbalnd flag, i will have the pciture of the presdeint of somalia in kismayom airport as long as xamar doesnt trying to take away my cosntituinal rights, if xamar demands money from kismayo port, it must also demand from hobyo, from berber and from bosaso, when they treat us equally i, i hear hawiyes threatening us in restaurants and radios and their websites, its how their politicns think, saying things like we will invade kismayo once the Kenyans are gone never mind the numerous foreign armies across Somalia and hawiye land,

OG has never lost land to the British,siad bare invading afmado and kismayo in the late 1980s, marehan, hutus, Mjs, he has never had land taken from him, invaders come and go, we always made sure they cannot stay, hawiye can come for war but wallahi it will be the end of hawiye, i am battle hardened, i dont want war but i will be ready because many hawiyes think we are weak and cannot fight like our MJ cousins. we have been trained and battle hardened by the biggest army in africa with $12 billion in US military aid annually,

like i said, i am not looking for a fight but every son of OG from DDSI, Jubbaland and NFD will join and defend Kismayo, may Allah put mercy in the hearts of all somali tribes like he did for the Warring arabs tribes after islam