Nice Analysis from another website PkDefence
A lot of UAE-based and Gulf-based members accused me of making things up when I said that the UAE was planning to break up Yemen and that it was building military bases in Socotra and Somaliland. Well, recent events show that everything I said before is turning out to be true.
So why is Qatar against the UAE's plan to break up Yemen? Well, there are many answers to that question:
1. Qatar believes that if the UAE breaks up Yemen, then South Yemen will become a secular and anti-Islamist country, which will strengthen the UAE's regional influence and weaken Qatar's.
2. Qatar also believes that this will strengthen the case for officially balkanizing other countries as well, such as Somalia, Libya, Syria and Iraq. This means that the north Somalian breakaway state of Somaliland will eventually receive international recognition. Somaliland, just like South Yemen, will be an anti-Islamist and secular state, which will no doubt mean that both Qatari and Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa will decline, just as Qatari and Turkish influence in Libya and Yemen will decline.
3. The UAE is also secretly supporting Kurdish and Kurdish-aligned secular groups in Syria and Iraq. The UAE has already publicly stated its support for Kurdish independence. Again, Qatar doesn't like this since it will diminish Qatari and Turkish influence in the Levant and Mesopotamia. Also, Kurdish statehood will weaken Qatar's best ally in the region, Turkey.
Okay, so what about Israel? Why is Israel with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and against Qatar?
1. Israel shares the UAE's goal of officially breaking up countries like Libya, Yemen, Somalia, etc. It also shares the UAE's policy of promoting anti-Islamist secularists at the expense of Islamists.
2. Israel shares the UAE's goal of helping the Kurds achieve independence. Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia all believe that an independent Kurdistan will act as bulwark against both Islamist Turkey and Islamist Iran.
3. Israel and the UAE are secretly planning to oust Hamas from Gaza and replace them with a secular pro-UAE Palestinian group. In order for this to happen, Hamas must be weakened, and this means that both Qatar and Turkey must be stopped from helping Hamas.
Here's something interesting. A few weeks ago, Hamas declared that its cutting its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and that it no longer wishes to see the destruction of Israel. Many believe that this was Hamas's desperate attempt to convince Israel not to go with the UAE's plan of invading Gaza.
So what's going to happen? Who will win and who will lose? What will America do, if anything?
Well, a number of things might happen:
1. The UAE might stage a coup against the current emir of Qatar and replace him with elements of the Qatari ruling family who are willing to play second fiddle to Abu Dhabi and willing to cut all ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamist movements. Of course, in order for this coup to happen successfully, the Americans must accept it, otherwise it won't be allowed to take place. Another obstacle is Turkey, which already has a military base in Qatar, with well over 500 Turkish troops.
2. A coup might not necessarily occur, but Qatar might make a number of big concessions to the UAE, which includes staying out of the Yemeni war, staying out of the war in Libya, and not hosting Islamists in Doha.
3. The UAE might overextend itself and things might begin to backfire on Abu Dhabi. Increased hostility towards Qatar might strengthen Qatar's resolve and, ironically, push the Qataris even closer to the Iranians and Turks.
4. The American deep state might ironically use this as an opportunity to play the Qatari bloc and UAE bloc off against each other to ensure that neither bloc gets the upper hand.
Personally, I don't think Abu Dhabi or Riyadh will succeed in this current rift. Although the UAE and Saudi Arabia wish the Americans/Westerners will side with them against Qatar, the truth is the United States will not allow the UAE to establish a strong upper hand in the region, even though the UAE has helped the US in many places across the Middle East, particularly in Yemen. The truth, however, is that the Americans won't throw the Qataris under the bus. They will continue ensuring that there's a balance of power in the region, which obviously means that they won't allow the UAE or Saudi Arabia to succeed in subverting Doha.
Moreover, many foreign powers already have vested interests in Qatar's sovereignty. None of them will allow Abu Dhabi to cross the red lines.
So I actually think this is where the UAE might fumble for the very first time since the Arab Spring began. The UAE was bound to stretch itself too thin at some point, and this might just be the point where it does.
I think Qatar's resolve will actually strengthen and not get worse. Just like in 2014, it might offer a few symbolic gestures of goodwill to its neighbors, but it will continue pursuing a foreign policy that will run contrary to those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This will especially be true as Turkey, Qatar's best ally in the region, becomes more assertive in the region.
