Waachis,
The Tigrays want a separate state, they are inciting somali separatism as a pretext of balkanising ethiopia.
after ethnic federalism, there is no going back, and the tigray know in a democratic ethiopia, they lose and they also lose in amhara unitary state.
the tigray are cunning and fearful, their ethnicity is at a crossroad, they highly intermarry with oromo and amhara, so their population is drastically declining.
the reality of the tigrey is gloom in the next 30 years, their plan for the horn of africa is multiple states in accordance with balance of power principle.
the tragedy of the tigrey is, that they used all their political capital on ethnic governance and divide and conquer and now they seek the support of marginal somalis (act of last resort)
the tigray will plunge ethiopia chaos here are the two options availiable to them, war with eritrea or civil war, there is no other option because a peaceful transfer of power is not their their strategy, they know they are endangered species, hence why they are looting ethiopia and moving military hardware close to the ethiopian border anticipating major revolt directed against them and moving money offshore, panama papers.
we somalis had the most brutal civil war but the principle upon which our state is build is ethnological so even after the civil war our common destiny is not disputed and am not sure about ethiopia.
Ethiopia politics saw the arousal of ethnic nationalism and once that pandoras box is opened, civil strive is inevitable.
19 century european nationalist movements only came to end after 2 world wars, and saw over 80 million deaths.
PS: I thing the amhara will find a way to unite ethiopia by brut force and they will trick the oromo christians and they will be heavily supported by russia and the west.
the cost of future ethiopian unification will see the biggest migration of people across horn of africa.
northern somali regions demographics will change for the first time in history not by conquest but migration.
majority of people will die of famine prompting international community to intervene(of-course on the side of the Amharas)
-Herr Eaglehawk is a legendary political analyst and military strategist who is a professor at the university of SNET
I agree with the majority of what u said, except for-the civil war part.
also, tigray cannot secede, as long as eritrea is hostile to the north. eritrea knows tigray would eventually try to annex large parts of eritrea, to add to tigray, so eritrea is very wary of tplf and is ready to pounce on them from the north. the UAE and egypt also would back them, especially if they see it as an ethiopian attack on eritrea-that'd give egypt the excuse to go further than just defending eritrea too.
egypt has troops in eritrea, albeit, it's a lowkey thing. they are definitely gathering intelligence on ethiopia and the dam, if/when possible.
as far as ethiopia goes,...
Ethiopia has seen worse. the derg was by far worse. when the derg collapsed, all out chaos, like in somalia, didn't break out.
they the derg-were literally bombing entire areas with napalm and bombs they got from russia. (the derg was)
these days, even tplf cannot do this, because the majority of the pilots are oromo and amhara.
i'll give u an example; when the gondar amhara were uprising, the tplf wanted to use the air force.
they sent oromo pilots, to bomb them, and the pilot missed his targets on purpose, and then defected to eritrea.
the pilots are nationalistic. he's an oromo, who refused to bomb gondar, an amhara region.
many people remained law abiding citizens. they love their country. even in areas with no government presence, the soldiers would sell their guns for food, and go back home, they wouldn't cause trouble, even though, they could, they were armed and desperate.
now, you have more than 1 government, the regional ones, so if one collapses, the others will step in.
as long as u see a strong opdo, andm, u will have an ethiopia.
