Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki are racing toward peace because they both face the same threat: hard-liners in the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front.
The bad news for Abiy is that his maneuvers will probably have minimal effects. After 27 years of autocratic rule, the TPLF has patronage networks that run deep and are rooted in ethnic demographics. Although Tigrayans represent only 6 percent of Ethiopia’s population, an analysis of the Ethiopian military several years ago found that 57 of 61 generals in mission-critical positions were ethnically Tigrayan. It is estimated that two-thirds of the broader officer class is, too. The entire ethos of the Ethiopian army is based on the mythology of the Tigrayan liberation fighters who defeated the Derg in 1991 — the same people who still personally hold most key security and intelligence posts.
Ethiopia situation is far from check mate, let's enjoy the show fireworks have not started yet.
There are some risks for Eritrea, too. Given the TPLF’s dominance of the military chain of command, it’s not entirely clear that Abiy can unilaterally withdraw Ethiopia’s troops from the border. So even if Isaias and Abiy form a full-throated alliance, Eritrea will find itself in the awkward position of announcing a peace with Ethiopia while still defending its border against TPLF aggression
Faced with the threat of a civil war in Ethiopia if the reform effort fails, Eritrea has no choice but to accept that risk and throw everything it has behind Abiy — but the clock is now ticking
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/12/et ... plf-eprdf/
Great inside read, so many moving parts this gonna be fun to watch!
