Amhara state spends 11 million birr on ammo?

[Waachis]

There are reports that the Amhara Regional state spent 11 million birr on ammunition recently...
Are they preparing for war, and if so, against who?

[Khalid Ali]

Amxara is going to fight tigre on some villages in gonder i think they are ready to establish the gonder dynasty. Amxara are very strong military and they are laandhere.

[dalalos101]

There are reports that the Amhara Regional state spent 11 million birr on ammunition recently...
Are they preparing for war, and if so, against who?

Do you trust Oromo who identify strongly with their Christian identity which they adopted from Amxaarka who they are close allies with.

[Khalid Ali]

That would be true during mengitst xayle maryam. Oromo were very much xabashesised amxarisized. In places such as shewa Addis and wollo. But since Meles oromo have had allot of self rule. And regained their lost identity stolen by amxara. But allot of oromo are actually amxara. Amxaradu waxay ku mahmahaan geesiga oromadu amxaar bu is mooda. Christianity needs to die in Ethiopia I agree it's time for oromo to embrace Islam all of them.

[Waachis]

Oromo are more united today than ever, at least in modern history. Religion isn't our issue, it's just we just need to learn to share power fairly. Opdo cannot expect to always rule. It has to share power for the sake of oromo unity and for Ethiopia itself.

Now,
Amhara see tplf as an existential threat and may be preparing to once and for all handle it.
Tplf is inciting the agew and other minority groups in amhara state to press for self determination, and the amhara won't tolerate the break up of their state.
Tplf has deployed troops who opened fire on protesters in raya who were saying they're not tigrayan. Things may get ugly without intervention and mediation.
There are many layers to it. Sides will be chosen.
Even those who don't get involved may seek to benefit from it.
The only reason tplf is hesitant is because it is afraid to fight on more than one front. Who knows if eplf may seek to even the score from their defeat in the last war... Tplf cannot afford to fight on two fronts....
Especially if they have hostile neighbors who may cut off their access to the sea to import arms.
They may have arms now but they'll eventually be used, then what?
The roads to tigray were closed for a while until pm abiy deployed forces to open up the roads.
But people may just close it again.
Oromo won't side with either of them, to be honest. Unless tplf goes too far then we have to secure the region.
I don't think tplf fears one on one war with amhara or anyone, but they fear multiple enemies fighting them at the same time.. (afar, oromo, amhara, gurage, etc... )

[Khalid Ali]

So if amxara and tigre start killing each other. Oromo will not side with either of them interesting.

[Waachis]

We would rather they solve the issue peacefully even for selfish reasons like peace in our region, but we don't have the capability to stop a major war even if we wanted to. Oromo, somali, etc, none, can stop a war between amara and tigray, let's be honest. It would take maybe amisom and the region together.
Tplf is untouched for a reason, they're heavily armed, dangerous, and will get the sympathy of their people if tigray is invaded, because that switches the issue from anti tplf to being anti tigray.
They can tell tigray, "I told ya so"!


So the key is to separate tplf criminals from the average peace loving, law abiding, tigrayan.
At least, that's what justice loving people try to do.

The issue of welkait and other lands have pretty much sparked Amhara nationalism, which is growing strong. It's still recent compared to oromo, Somali nationalism, but is getting strong.
Oromo are more worried about peace within oromia first, because we need stability at home, before we can help others.

[Khalid Ali]

Amxara have numbers and they have been out of power since mengistu xayle maryam. But the problem is tigre is willing to take the back seat for now. Because of maxamad jawar lemme meqershe and the oromo urprise qeero. I think oromo should make peace between the tigre awrajas and amxara. Since amxara now respects Oromo not like in the past I think oromo should be the bigger guy and be mature axmed abiye need to lower the tensions there no one wins with war. Also ask afewerqi what he can do to stop a major conflict welkait. The xamasien Kristen dictator knows these tigre since they are closely related that is if afewerqi is sincere.

[Waachis]

You are probably right. Any war would effect the entire region. I just don't know what to make of isayas visiting amhara state at a time like this.
If he's there to make peace, not bad, if he's there to make a military alliance, that's not good.
Oromo will always try for peace for sure, but may need help, these are two heavily armed states Here, not minor skirmishes between nomads or farmers.

[Khalid Ali]

Afewerqi is now a sacuudi agent he is a dictator who controls all aspects elements of Eritrea. Knowing him being a jabhad I believe he sending signals to Eritrean Muslims that he is foremost a xabasha who sides with amxara against tigre. But it's a game of thrones. He is there to prolong his stay but also keep amxara groups loving him since Eritrean Muslims hate him and even some Christian Eritreans hate him. He just want his ego to be boosted since Axmed abiye made peace with him. About the border conflict but I wouldn't trust afewerqi he is a snake if I was oromo. Amxaras are now becoming more kililinized which is an improvement. But war is no good with war there is no peace bussines or life.

[dalalos101]

War is necessary, and Eritrea wants alliance for trade, the only option they have is Amhara, and Tigrayans are probably not going to sit by and let it happen.

Not everything is about Oromo, I don't think this war will effect Oromo at all, if they do not involve themselves.

Christendom is going to come back to Ethiopia in a big way, and Oromo will play a role in that, especially the regarding the pacification of Oromia, Abiye has already started the process of disarming them.

Somalis as per usual live in their own bubble worrying about rer hebel, but in all honesty, I think it is good to have Amhara back on the throne, we have always traded with them, the only problem is when their christian fanaticism acts up and they invade our lands, but they as every other nation knows Somalis are not easily occupied and managed like that, so I think they will probably prefer trade, and we should welcome it albeit be vigilant..

[Khalid Ali]

Actually Christianity is dying Meles killled the tewexedo church . Around 60 percent of oromo are Muslim and 25 percent of amxara are Muslim. Gurage half of them is Muslim and also Somalis are Muslim and cadaris are also Muslim and also many sidamas.