I’ve read Kenya’s full statement regarding the severance of diplomatic relations with Somalia. I’m trying to understand whether Kenya can force its neighbour (Somalia) in using a non-existent “soft power”? Clearly, Kenya’s attempting to punch above its weight but is the potential fall out ever worth it considering that Somalia is not the same Somalia of 1991.
Claim:
Kenya claims, that in a recent conference in London, Somalia auctioned off oil and gas blocks in Kenya’s maritime territorial area.
Reality:
Presenting 2D seismic data does not correspond to auctioning off. The purpose of presenting seismic data to potential investors is to help them decide whether the data is sufficient to justify drilling an exploratory well.
Claim:
Somalia has violated the Somalia-Kenya maritime boundary dispute by including the disputed maritime border in its offshore “auction”.
Reality:
This is categorically and fundamentally false. The map (see attached image) drawn by the Norwegian Seismic surveyor Spectrum clearly does not include the contested maritime space. In the map, blocks 218 and 219 are the closest towards the disputed border so what foreign infringement are they referring to unless they consider Jubbaland as part and parcel of Kenya. If Kenya’s central argument rests on Somalia’s inclusion of the disputed area, then how on earth did they lodge a protest and in the process create a diplomatic fiasco based on non-existing evidence? A quick google search would have saved them from this undiplomatic embarrassment.
Claim:
Kenya takes a jab at Somalia’s statehood, citing that it lacks the tenets of political maturity and diplomacy often found in functioning modern states.
Reality:
Notwithstanding Somalia’s painful road to recovery, I’m pleasantly surprised that Somalia has taken the necessary precaution in not mapping the disputed area when presenting the data. Clearly demonstrating Somalia’s mature and proactive diplomacy in not derailing the ongoing maritime delimitation dispute at the ICJ. Somalia is clearly learning the ropes of diplomacy and its accompanying bureaucratic trail – a hallmark of a modern functioning state.
Claim:
Kenya’s rehashed rhetoric that they have helped and supported Somalia on numerous occasions—from hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees to kicking al-Shabab out of Jubbaland.
Reality:
Since 1991, Kenya has been repeating this ad nauseam and this pathetic attempt of Kenya’s so-called “soft power” has been hovering over Somalia’s head since then. Yes, Somalia is grateful to Kenya for a number of reasons, but these reasons are entwined with Kenya’s strategic self-interests, and only a naive mind would consider Kenya’s motives to be altruistic in nature. First, Dadaab refugee camp is one of Kenya’s well-oiled business hub generating 100s of millions of dollars in revenue for the Kenyan government as well as maintaining 10,000 jobs mostly held by Kenyans. Second, Kenya’s army in Somalia profits heavily from the illegal sugar and charcoal trade in Kismaayo, earning min. of $50 million a year from illegal taxation. Somalia can’t be coerced in putting its territorial boundaries in jeopardy because Kenya has at one time “supported” Somalia.
All in all, this is a poor attempt in using a thinly veiled pretext to derail the Somalia-Kenya maritime border dispute. Kenya knows that since the case has gone to trial, the chance of Somalia winning the dispute has increased dramatically. Thus, since Kenya’s repeated pleas to settle out of court has been met with deafening silence from Somalia, it wants to create a smoke screen by pre-emptively taking measures (i.e. cutting diplomatic ties) in an attempt to force Somalia to come to the negotiation table and settle the territorial dispute of out of court. Somalia is adhering to the international law, and the same is expected – no, demanded from Kenya.
Gone are the days of political arm-twisting, whereby Kenya could force crooked and myopic Somali politicians into signing dubious agreements and get away with it.
