Most south have militarily fallen expect the unexpected!

[sahal80]

Abgaal army has been evacuating mahadaay, buurane, kanaalka China wich will make jalalaqsi and jowhar militarily fallen.


I said declare banaadir state muuse suudi is right for refusing farmaajo invitation and saying "farmaajo gedo ha tago mugaas uu i casimi karaa"" quoted from boss.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

This will be Hiraab last stance. Darood will finally finish what they should've done 30 years ago.

[Sagax]

Muusi suudi waa libax libax dhaley, he played a pivotal important role within USC in expelling reer gedo in the 90s, so it's no surprise he still views them as inferior shisheeye hence he tells Farmaajo to f off to gedo.

Anyway sahal, why is Farmaajo begging Hiraab HG and Abgaal these days, isn't his Langaab reer Kuwait and MX militia enough to secure the security.

Farmaajo is acting pathetic begging constantly Hiraab to protect him, he should've known that he made his bed when he antagonized reer Hiraab while pleasing his in-laws, and now he must face the music alone.

[Nubis]

Informative news.

[sahal80]

Muusi suudi waa libax libax dhaley, he played a pivotal important role within USC in expelling reer gedo in the 90s, so it's no surprise he still views them as inferior shisheeye hence he tells Farmaajo to f off to gedo.

kkkk the guy is funny as hell. Farmaajo invited him bc Suudi was invited by xalane and kampala after they seen his army so he wanna keep the momentum going. Suudi may form govt without kheyre if the situation gets out of control.

[sahal80]

Abgaal-damjadiid shirar are going to invest in muuse suudi rebellion and its implications on xalane. Kampla2 targeting kheyre in favour of abgaal PM is on the way. Damjaadid, abdulqadir osoble are fighting on this candidate. . muryrsade all aha idiin barakeeyo labadii sano waxaad liqdeen kkk

[Sagax]

Sahal it looks indeed like Farmaajo is heading Abdulahi yuusif style where he too will be overthrown by his PM.

I hope sahal that the next PM is Hiraabist to the core and not some Darood stooge like all geedi or jeele

[original dervish]

Sahal....did you really just say Suudi would form a Govt?

[sahal80]

Sahal....did you really just say Suudi would form a Govt?

not literally what I'm saying is reaching heshiis with him and the larger abgaal imposed by the SFG backers in migadishu to avoid al shabaab direct control till hiiraan where abgaal army are evacuating. Today one hirshabelle mp said some hotels in jowhar have asked them to leave the hotel after they were threatened by al shabaab who control between balcad and jowhar and qalimow(30k from balcad west of the highway yo jowhar) it's possible abgaal politicians are the ones who are targeting the hotels in the name of al shabaab. Every thing got mixed and this what the IC fears(qabiil resistance)

Amisom relies on hiraab national army HNA checkpoints all the way to baraawe and hiiraan. If these troops evacuate their positions Amisom will be on danger so they are gonna impose solution. Abgaal army have evacuated their positions on jowhar airport. There is a possibility of warsangali/harti abgaal militia controlling jowhar and waare may move to baladweyne....some chaos is taking place now in jowhar but as hirshabelle fellow i dont care because we all know is jowhar is back garden of xamar so what's going in xamar will impact on it so let them be banaadir state and we gonna be hiiraan state until winds settle. Waare stays in xamar anyways. We and abgaal are not mixed at all except the name we have our plans and policies for hiiraan and leave theirs for them and all the UN agencies are based in baladweyne.

Farmaajo may try to appoint yarisow who's a
wacbuudhan or thaabit who's waceysle but hes under the control of murursade who are threatening to kill him if atleast they didnt pick who succeeds kheyre. They are also telling him every thing is alright and should leave kheyre to deal with situation.

[original dervish]

Thanks your detailed analyses are invaluable.
Perhaps you can answer this question....I've asked you this many times and have received a satisfactory response.

What is the end game of all these reoccurring "political" disputes?

Each ruling faction is continually at war with the opposition.....then when the roles reverse the battle continues.

What is the policy apart from having different foreign sponsors....and does anyone of them have a vision for the country or even just Xamar?

[sahal80]

Thanks your detailed analyses are invaluable.
Perhaps you can answer this question....I've asked you this many times and have received a satisfactory response.

What is the end game of all these reoccurring "political" disputes?

Each ruling faction is continually at war with the opposition.....then when the roles reverse the battle continues.

What is the policy apart from having different foreign sponsors....and does anyone of them have a vision for the country or even just Xamar?

somalia needs a national unity Govt composed of all the major politicians like Lebanon even if they are in disagreements it's better than these confrontations. Other other factor is to agree upon a dastuur each one follows it.
ANC has scored majority yet formed a govt with the smaller parties including the whites
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governm ... th_Africa)

Farmaajo is one clueless delusional person because he thinks he can rule in the name of wadaniyad(wich is a fake one)without the people who make the majority of the army and the police. Hes too weak for leadership because picking a PM from his in laws was a decision by his wife according to the murursade themselves. One of khayre waraabe who manages hotel jarsiira and arranges politicians for him is half hawadle and told me this. Actually I'm not against murursade or kheyre I'm just with the reality. If it was Yousuf cdynte he may have able to to work with all HAG but kheyre has this imaginary hiraab enemy.
Can you run puntland without mj if not maxamuud saleebaan? We had 30 years of qabiil based populations and Mogadishu is not different than garowe and hargeysa.

[theyuusuf143]

Thanks your detailed analyses are invaluable.
Perhaps you can answer this question....I've asked you this many times and have received a satisfactory response.

What is the end game of all these reoccurring "political" disputes?

Each ruling faction is continually at war with the opposition.....then when the roles reverse the battle continues.

What is the policy apart from having different foreign sponsors....and does anyone of them have a vision for the country or even just Xamar?

You don't have to ask too much questions, xamar dadkeeda baa taladeeda leh. Waxad uga hadasho baaba faduula.

[original dervish]

Yusef sxb......you've been too active lately.....perhaps you should fall back for a while.

[Cunaaye25]

90% of the problem will go away,
If they move the F capital.

Who ever controls the capital will always have the upper hand or could cause chaos both security and politically.

We are back to 90s for f sack.
If you move the capital you could have a neutral army, where everyone is represented.

Hosting the capital comes with many benefits
You can't have your cake and eat it (too) HAG extremist.

HAG extremist will be a thing of past if they f move Capital.

[Nolol cusub]

[/quote]

Amisom relies on hiraab national army HNA checkpoints all the way to baraawe and hiiraan. If these troops evacuate their positions Amisom will be on danger so they are gonna impose solution. Abgaal army have evacuated their positions on jowhar airport. There is a possibility of warsangali/harti abgaal militia controlling jowhar and waare may move to baladweyne....some chaos is taking place now in jowhar but as hirshabelle fellow i dont care because we all know is jowhar is back garden of xamar so what's going in xamar will impact on it so let them be banaadir state and we gonna be hiiraan state until winds settle. Waare stays in xamar anyways. We and abgaal are not mixed at all except the name we have our plans and policies for hiiraan and leave theirs for them and all the UN agencies are based in baladweyne.

Farmaajo may try to appoint yarisow who's a
wacbuudhan or thaabit who's waceysle but hes under the control of murursade who are threatening to kill him if atleast they didnt pick who succeeds kheyre. They are also telling him every thing is alright and should leave kheyre to deal with situation.
[/quote]


I think it is too late for the south now.

Anyone seen the Day After Tomorrow, where Jack Hall(Denis Quaid) draws a line on the US map and says, "evacuate anyone south of this line" The Veep looks at him and says what about the people on the North,. Jack looks at him and says, "too late for them"

I really think it matters little what Hiraab does or doesn't. There is 95% chance that south will sink. The new defensive line will have to be drawn in Baladwenye all the way to cost of Harardheere. South of Baledweyne will be lost to Islamists, North of Baledwenye can be defended if Habargidir wakes up and starts to think strategically.

Survival and consolidation

I think it is time that GM state(Habargidir) and Somaliland(Isaaq) should actively cooperate to fortify this line. Within a few years this line of thinking will be mainstream in both groups. GM state has always acted as a strategic buffer for Somaliland and a defensive umbrella for Hawiye subclans. I think this type of arrangement has served its purposes. Alshabaab and other Islamist groups will gradually overrun the south and consolidate their grip on south of Baledweyne to Raskamboni. GM state, Somaliland will have zero choice but to develop a single security strategy to keep that line intact. Unless I am giving too much credit to the collective intelligence of the duo. I think the Sacads always sense danger from afar, but I could be wrong about this generation.

New Somalia (Geography, religious, political and historical identity would be a crucial factor. )


South of Baledweyne(Wahabi Somalia)

North of Baledweyne (Free Somalia). I think the Saudis and free world would have to throw their lot on this side.


Anyone who thinks this is far-fetched scenario would only need to examine two developments.

1. None of the sub-clans in the South have had a genuine control over their territories for the past 30 years. This starts early in 1990s and continues until the present. Look at the level of dysfunctionality and lack regional political identity(a prime example would be Marehans.) Save Somalia when their region is literally infested with Alshabaab and African Union). Mudulloods have had 8 years of their own president and could not create a regional political identity of their own. If Southern clans could not do what needed to be done in peaceful and opportune time how can we expect them to do under constant alshabaab threat.

The opposite picture emerges if you look at the political identity and the level organization on the sub-clans that live north of Baledweyn.
This starts with Somaliland in 1991, few years later Puntland, then 2004 GM state. More importantly there is a strong local political and religious identity that makes it harder for an outsider to impose his wahabi crap.

2. In terms of pure power politics you have a delusional Haraadigii Bare character who thinks he can restore the lost days of "Barre civilization" . Next, you have the usual local opposition groups that have 90% of the economy, 90% population and who will always smell Barre's mouth from Afgooye. In the meantime you have the foreign people, the ones that drove their anti terror state apparatus on the back of Ethiopian tanks into Mogadishu, watching and waiting for democratic and united Somalia to miraculously take shape.

---

Final thought,

- Somalia would break up into two ideologically opposed camps, with Baledweyne being the dividing line. Think of North and South Korea.
- Hawadle needs to join GM state to survive.
- The sooner GM state and Somaliland start making plans for survival contingency the better.
- GM state business groups should make plans to move their investment away from the south. Population would have to follow.
- This would eventually mean the break up of Hawiye sub-clan alliance, one that started with United Somali Congress.


What about Puntland?


This state could go both ways. Strategically their interest perfect aligns with GM state and Somaliland. The question is can they put aside useless clan emotions(Darodism) and make hard decisions to survive. History shows they will not, but the younger generations could be different.


Lenin used to say the reward for political stupidity is death. This is certainly true for the South, one half of Somalia is gone. Will the other half make better decisions. We will know soon.



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