kenya and ethiopia want to externalize their ogadeni problem while still ruling the ogadenis with iron fist
kenya is using the briggs plan in counter insurgency, they are creating terror act and provide the solution.
the two Spanish women kidnapping was a perception operation to justfy invasion of somalia by kenya
while ethiopia is using abiyemania to trick the ogadenis with self rule while the security apparatus is still in full force and is about to be unleashed in 2020
according to qalbidagax, the somali regional president nor ONLF are allowed to visit the oil facilities in the ogaden
ethiopia is already courting the border clans and regions, the kenya ethiopia border is now heavilly securitised
the stage is set, all the actors are in play, this will be great movie, yet we have seen this movie before
noting changed in ethiopian inteligence service, its only yamamoto that is keeping the ethiopians in check, once he gives the green light, we are back in usual business
the ultimate game plan of ethiopia is have deep relations with boderering clans as to forever deny any potencial insurgent group to ever cross from somalia into ethiopia, this plann worked well in western somaliland, SSC puntland and galmudug, now jubaland is the only place that ethiopians view as a wickspot especially in Gedo region and Bakool so now they are courting the clans
the tribal wars in the ogadeen is being done by ethiopia, to resecurities the ogaden region using fals pretext
strategy
1) aqlienate the ogadenis from the rest of somalis by otherizingthem(change the somali citizenship law)
2) offer ogadenis sweet deal for their cooparation (never honor while having golden deal with other clans)
3) keep them in perpetual vassalage status while blamining everything on TPLF
4) keep ONLF in perpertual talks while systemticlly tribalising the Ogadeniya region ito clans and sub clans.
5) convince the international community that the somalis in ethiopia never had it so good and that their needs are met its just they are squabeling among themselfs.
6) convince the somalis in ogadeniya they are better off in kilinka then somalia(see my thread about qalibagax)
7)anytalk of a referendum is a green light to unleash full ethiopian forces who are now hiding in baracks and using liye politice as their trojan horse for indept inteligence gathering
8) destablise kenya inorder to have joint hegemonic structure in jubaland (ethiopia views the reqruitment of ogadenis in kenyan security sector as a potencial threath
9) kismaayo regime should be courted but in the long run should be removed due to the potential heavy weapons importation without regulatory mechanisim of the coast of jubaland, kismaayo and buurgaabo
10)the autority of the somali federal goverment should be used to legitimise operational needs of ethiopian security establishment
