Isn't Xawaadle the 4 largest Hawiye subclan after Abgaal, HG, Murusade ?
i don't really believe Sanbalooshe or Kheyre stand a chance as president, but Kheyre could be PM again, but I reckon it will be an Abgaal PM if a split does happen as Sahal predicts, if not I look forward to 4 more years of political stability in Villa Somalia.
like Sanbaloolshe said Hawiye has power sharing based on three central powers; Banaadir(Abgaal) Mudug(HG) Hiiraan(Hawadle) murursade waa minority in banaadir and Mudug.
Hawadle are not after the pm post like murursade and to some point HG. if Hawadle becomes the president it will work bc abgaal wont be against it. we will let the hirshabelle vice president attend the meetings with the federal hawadle president. already hawadle became the governor of banaafir lfir 3 years under abgaal president but HG and murursade were never appointed for this post since the civil war. Hawadle r very smart like murursade they wont clash with HG instead will play the hawiye card to recruit HG. HG xajirka like Haji ingiriis love sh ali Jimaale. Goodax represents hawiye interests more than Kheyre in this Govt. Kheyre is pro Darood cause he thinks hiraab hates him.
I honestly don't believe Xawaadle holds more sway than Murursade, you are once again mixing local politics with national politics, you are drunk on federalism and losing sight of the bigger picture, you remind me of the kid that got new air jordans after they got out of fashion, Saxib while it is a good step to remove Kheyre from N&N you cannot use him against Farmaajo, it is fantasy, and Sanboloshe being a candidate for Hawiye is even more laughable. HG played their cards too early, and Abgaal held presidency for the past 3 terms. You have no real Hawiye candidate who isn't N&N, as for the Darood Mucarad they are even more in shambles than the Hawiye Mucarad, right now Farmaajo looks to be reelected and his PM looks like Kheyre, unless some last minute decision is made.
Murursade card is not about cause they r more hawiye than Hawadle just bc they live in Xamar and had isbaaro in there under qanyare. main N&N supporters who will do pro dawlad mudaharaat are murursade so if the president is Darood he should not go for Hawadle besides they r more anti-Darod and will use hawiye card it will make it worse. however, Hawadle have big HAG ally like Abgaal and can assure HG fears but murursade have no HG or Abgaal so uf Hawadle president is elected he will be accepted atleast by Abgaal. Hirsabelle the vice president will run publically.
hawadle is the third cause we have parliament 10 seats and murursade 8. we had more saraakiil and agaasimayaal their situation changed under kheyre they took from us two agaasime in exchange of deputy bank governor. We have more saraakiil in SNA like taliyaha 12 oct col tawane(Bandir and shabeelooyinka) besides we have Hirshabelle and hiiraan region. they dominate banadir security but im speaking federal level and hawiye wax qaybsi.
HAG wax qaybsi is based on three cenntral subclans that is why we lead hirshabelle andd HG Galmudug annd Abgaal banaadir/Viilla soomalia. darod waxqabsi is based on kablakah. you need to understand the local dynamics.
see this abdullahi yuusufs ambassador to ethiopia becoming against him defending hawiye interests
he defends "hawiye warlords" calling abdullahi yuuauf himself a a warlord. he us hawadle passed away au
my current ideology of lack of hiraab support said by laqanyo 10 years ago
"Farah said external intervention to raise the issue of
political accommodation with Yusuf could be "very effective"
in overcoming "the current deadlock," but needed to occur
immediately, as much had to be done before the NRC. Such
intervention, if known by Somali clan leaders, could also
encourage greater Hawiye support for the TFG, he said.
According to Farah, the GOE's control over President Yusuf
was limited: Yusuf had been summoned 3-4 times to Addis
Ababa, but Yusuf "doesn't always listen."
5. (C) Defending the recent appointment of Hawiye leaders
Mohamed Dhere and Hassan Qeybdiid (as Governor of
Benadir/Mayor of Mogadishu and National Police Commissioner,
respectively), Farah rejected the contention that their
appointment meant the TFG was "bringing back warlordism."
Even Yusuf could be said to be a warlord, Farah countered.
Farah said Qeybdiid, who had replaced a Darod, had improved
security in Mogadishu by taking control of Bakara market
(which had been renowned for arms smuggling), and by allowing
business leaders (who had formerly supported the CIC) to
retain and legally display firearms, once they had been
registered by the police."
https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/ ... 507_a.html
