Kenya's Security Council vote against Ethiopia this week is a game changer in the Horn.

[Voltage]

According to chatter, its effects will not be seen immediately and will manifest publicly as "contained rage" but it will have the same impact as Somali Irredentism/Ogaden War had on the Horn.

It is astounding how much bad blood has seeped in. There was already the disagreement in Somalia----but that was foreign policy.

What Kenya has done is diplomatically akin to the US switching on Isreal.

1. Kenya and Ethiopia have the longest mutual defense pact on the African continent.
2. They both formulated their entire defense and diplomatic strategies mutually against the threat of Somali Irredentism.
3. They were not competitors, they did not speak against each other, and most of all each was a solid ally for the indepedence of their internal affairs.

It is over.

Virtually an entire foundation of Horn status quo has been upended by Kenya's vote.

Kenya did not have to do this.

China, India, and Russia's votes already precluded the conclusion of the resolution.

Kenya could have easily abstained given its strategic historic relationship with Ethiopia on top of arguing the African neutrality for their internal affairs.

It is over.

The Ethiopians will now move forward identifying further Kenyan power as a strategic threat to their position in the Horn.

If you can't rely on a power; that power is a threat to the State.

1. I predict Ethiopia, particularly as the war in Tigray dies down, will turn sharply to Somalia and aggressively work to integrate Somalia at all levels (politically, economically, militarily) into the Greater Cushitic heartland.
   • Understand this is not about Farmajo or this moment; I am talking project going on the next HALF CENTURY.
2. I also do not see Eritrea falling back into hostilities with Ethiopia, even after Isayas. Both countries have psychologically and politically accepted the terms of their separation---and this joint action in Tigray is "sowing of the oats" --- each will have as a security for their friendship the threat of Tigray.
3. Tigray will also, in my opinion, become sort of like the "Igbo" of Nigeria or the Luo of Kenya.
   • Each of those groups are individual powers with large constituency---but in the face of a national socio-politico coalition united in preventing them from accessing power-----the Tigray will stay a controlled regional issue.

Times will be very interesting this century for the Horn.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Ethiopia and Kenya fighting is in our interests but being bedfellows with our historic enemy doesn’t sit well with me. Maybe it does to you but to me it’s ethnic suicide.

[Voltage]

Saddam, the Greeks and Romans were enemies. The Visgoths and Celts were enemies. The Franks and Lombards were enemies. The French and Germans were enemies.

If you study history, the entire foundation, development, qnd even civilization of Somalis is centered on what is called the Great Cushitic heartland (Ethiopia).

Even look at our Islamic states... Ifar, Zaylac, and Adal----they didn't form on Hobyo sxb.

I actually FORESEE the much faulted Horn integration.

I literally foresee it because I see the signs on the road already.

We had to do Irredentism fight, we had to do 5 star, we had to go into civil war, Somaliland had to break away.... even this clan oriented federalism has to be tried---and ultimately fail.

There has never been a politicized Somali ethnic group before colonialism and it will never be what underpins a state existence on the Horn.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Saddam, the Greeks and Romans were enemies. The Visgoths and Celts were enemies. The Franks and Lombards were enemies. The French and Germans were enemies.

If you study history, the entire foundation, development, qnd even civilization of Somalis is centered on what is called the Great Cushitic heartland (Ethiopia).

Even look at our Islamic states... Ifar, Zaylac, and Adal----they didn't form on Hobyo sxb.

I actually FORESEE the much faulted Horn integration.

I literally foresee it because I see the signs on the road already.

We had to do Irredentism fight, we had to do 5 star, we had to go into civil war, Somaliland had to break away.... even this clan oriented federalism has to be tried---and ultimately fail.

There has never been a politicized Somali ethnic group before colonialism and it will never be what underpins a state existence on the Horn.

You don’t know Ethiopians nor does your clan border them. My “reer miyi” clan does my friend. They are expansionists at heart. This globalist regional bloc is to curtail Somalia’s power and so it can be ruled from Addis Ababa. That’s what the west always wanted. To curtail the state power of Somalia not the group or land. Maybe your cosmopolitanism has rendered you guys as soft. But once a snake always a snake. Idc if they are Oromo, Amhara, or even Tigray. End of the day they are against Somali interests and power. Even the Afar we subdued in Djibouti is pro Ethiopia. I see no strategic gains in this new “Horn Bloc.” Abiy Ahmed was in military intelligence before he rose to power. It’s his job to fool his assets. But who he surrounded himself with. Tells me he wants to complete Menelik II’s dream of conquering the east (Somalia proper). Intellectuals are good teachers but they aren’t born rulers

[Voltage]

Saddam, both of my paternal and maternal families are from Ethiopia brother. My paternal side is actually the single most dispossessed Marehan subclan due to Ethiopian imperialism. My position is not a subclan position and in fact the biggest skeptic to my position above has been my old man.

Also sxb, your sub-clan is in Nageyle.

It is we as Marehan and Somalis who are clearly expansionist in your example. It is also not "Ethiopians" who expanded into the lands my paternal side was dispossessed from but rather other Somalis.

This entire example is fascinating for what it says about the subject; even the fact that your sub-clan camels are not heading towards the coast but deep into the Ethiopia heartland and in Nageyle no less!

But I agree, there is an intensity of identity and concepts of equity involved that is very heavy.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Saddam, both of my paternal and maternal families are from Ethiopia brother. My paternal side is actually the single most dispossessed Marehan subclan due to Ethiopian imperialism. My position is not a subclan position and in fact the biggest skeptic to my position above has been my old man.

Also sxb, your sub-clan is in Nageyle.

It is we as Marehan and Somalis who are clearly expansionist in your example. It is also not "Ethiopians" who expanded into the lands my paternal side was dispossessed from but rather other Somalis.

This entire example is fascinating for what it says about the subject; even the fact that your sub-clan camels are not heading towards the coast but deep into the Ethiopia heartland and in Nageyle no less!

But I agree, there is an intensity of identity and concepts of equity involved that is very heavy.

This part of the convo isn’t for the public but I agree with your analysis here. A lot of things are wrong I’ll leave it there.

[nine]

Ethiopia and Kenya fighting is in our interests but being bedfellows with our historic enemy doesn’t sit well with me. Maybe it does to you but to me it’s ethnic suicide.

Egypt and Sudan are focusing on the dam. If we weren't a failed state this would be the time for us to form a new alliance/bloc.

[Canuck2]

Dear Voltage : You can not form union or confederation with country like Ethiopia that has her army in your country & who had invaded your country in 2007. It is called occupation. Things do not happen like that. As for good attention, Ethiopia army must withdraw from Somalia & Ogaden state must return to Somalia. I guess new police can take place of Ethiopian forces in Somalia. Do not forget to join www.Somaliwave.com

[nine]

Saddam, the Greeks and Romans were enemies. The Visgoths and Celts were enemies. The Franks and Lombards were enemies. The French and Germans were enemies.

If you study history, the entire foundation, development, qnd even civilization of Somalis is centered on what is called the Great Cushitic heartland (Ethiopia).

Even look at our Islamic states... Ifar, Zaylac, and Adal----they didn't form on Hobyo sxb.

I actually FORESEE the much faulted Horn integration.

I literally foresee it because I see the signs on the road already.

We had to do Irredentism fight, we had to do 5 star, we had to go into civil war, Somaliland had to break away.... even this clan oriented federalism has to be tried---and ultimately fail.

There has never been a politicized Somali ethnic group before colonialism and it will never be what underpins a state existence on the Horn.

The Prophet (ﷺ) said: Let the Abyssinians alone as long as they let you alone, and let the Turks alone as long as they leave you alone.

Real negotiations can happen when Nageyle to Jigjiga is surrendered by diplomacy or force. Then we can sign deals as equals.

[skywalker25]

Voltage is what call in the UK as a waffler.

All those words, just so he can squeeze his little tribe in between Ethiopia and Kenya...

I wonder if someone’s paying him for all this. No sane person would be wasting precious time on some lonely forum writing essays daily.

[Voltage]

Voltage is what call in the UK as a waffler.

All those words, just so he can squeeze his little tribe in between Ethiopia and Kenya...

I wonder if someone’s paying him for all this. No sane person would be wasting precious time on some lonely forum writing essays daily.

Your fixation with me is extremely unhealthy.

Notice how many times I try to police any aspect of yours?

.

I mean there is absolutely nothing about this topic that specifically targets or concerns you beyond some authoritarian tendency to try to control what I can express.

If you can't appreciate what or anything I have to express; maybe you should stop caring about it.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Ethiopia and Kenya fighting is in our interests but being bedfellows with our historic enemy doesn’t sit well with me. Maybe it does to you but to me it’s ethnic suicide.

Egypt and Sudan are focusing on the dam. If we weren't a failed state this would be the time for us to form a new alliance/bloc.

Somalis are a incompetent and backwards nomadic society that can’t think beyond what goes in their stomach while our rivals and neighbors are trying to build their state and increase their geopolitical power in the world. I blame the incompetency on the older generation really

[nine]

Ethiopia and Kenya fighting is in our interests but being bedfellows with our historic enemy doesn’t sit well with me. Maybe it does to you but to me it’s ethnic suicide.

Egypt and Sudan are focusing on the dam. If we weren't a failed state this would be the time for us to form a new alliance/bloc.

Somalis are a incompetent and backwards nomadic society that can’t think beyond what goes in their stomach while our rivals and neighbors are trying to build their state and increase their geopolitical power in the world. I blame the incompetency on the older generation really

Abyssinia will never be our ally for the foreseeable future. Eritreans and Ethiopians are Habashis waa wiil iyo Adeerkiis we are outsiders to them. Farmajo should be in Khartoum not Addis or Asmara.

[Murax]

Nobody is denying Ethiopia is a long term strategic enemy, but any country civilization has enemies. The one throwing combinations, punching you in the chest requires more of your attention then the one that wants to fight you next week.


-Ethiopia’s attention now is dedicated not to the East but the West, and North. The Nile dam, Western border with Sudan, conflict with Tigray are more immediate priorities than Somalia. Smartly, N&N has worked on rearranging the dynamics of the relationship with Kenya from a previous TPLF dynamic, to more a equal counterpart dynamic. Don’t forget folks, people like Gaas, Cabdishakur signed off the Somali seas for pocket change. So it’s not surprise Kenya thought they could dangle Madoobe in front of the Government as bait, to negotiate with the maritime boundary. Suffice it to say Kenya has been caught off guard by the FGS responding see you in court. In the coming 6 months there will be a fully demarcated maritime boundary with Kenya, and things should cool off by then. By the time Ethiopia turns to Somalia we should be in a stronger negotiating position.

[Phinks]

Voltage, take a look at this

'Is there a campaign to remove Somali Muslims from eastern Ethiopia, by any means necessary?'

https://www.trtworld.com/africa/there-s ... lims-20603

How can we integrate with people that want to dominate our coasts? What can Somalis GAIN from this? I know the Ethiopians will gain something from this, but no matter how much I think on it, Somalis can only stand to lose from a HOA integration scheme.

There have been reports surfacing lately of Oromo/Afar militias attacking Somali settlements, whenever we push back the Ethiopian army would intervene and support the militias. Jigjiga has amahara death squads killing Somali shop owners and setting up turf, Oromo are requesting political representation in PL/SL/Xamar. Let's be real here, if a Somali was to do the same he would be dragged on the streets and stoned to death.

You have to understand the fear/hatred/jealousy Somaliweyne evokes in these people, it's no wonder Ethiopia and Kenya signed that defence pact, Somaliweyne territories combined is larger than WESTERN EUROPE. This combined with our low population could have made us a wealthy nation, but alas that's a task that has been proven to be too difficult for Somali men to solve.