The Fall of Farjaamo and The Birth of Mogadishu State

[Nolol cusub]

For Somalia to move forward and learn from its current blunders there has to be a democratically elected representative institution of Mogadishu's 3 million population: A Mogadishu State. Without that I am highly confident that Somalia will be under the total control of Sunni insurgent group: al-shabaab.

1. A model for this can be found in India's federal electoral system where the city Dehli functions both as the seats of the federal state as well as the state of delhi's own institutions, both democratically elected of course.

2. We should re-examine the role of the UN, and AU. UN and the AU both make 1 billion dollar each year from the chaos in Somalia but their contribution to an effective nation building democratic institution is at best minimal. Each extra year they stay would mean an extra billion dollar for them which makes them part of problem in Somalia. This will eventually lead to a real confrontation in Mogadishu's street.

3. The opportunity to reverse al-shabaab's influence in southern Somalia has come and gone. Central and Northern parts of Somalia should be given a high priority through local institution building, democratic representation, good governance, military training and cooperation. Galmudug should be given an extra attention. This state is crucial in checking out al shabaab's Northern movements. Without a sizable aid and mobilization I expect Galmudug State to fall within 5-10 years. With the fall of Galmudug alshabaab will stroll into Somalia's red sea coast and connect with al Qaida's Yemen faction, thus creating a new threat to Saudi Family.

4. Solely relying on Mogadishu's politicians or Somali politicians for that matter is at best childish. They should be dictated to when it comes a democratic institution building, re-allocating funding for crucial local governance for various states. The childish individually centered Somali politics should be discouraged through legal consequences, aggressive asset seizing, jail time.


--

[Gubbet]

How naive. You always were completely out of step cosplaying Karl Marx in fantasy league Xaafadee.

You have had 30 years of real, on the ground experimentation.

It is irrelevant to "predict" option when there are "results" from conclusion.

1. Warlordism
2. Shabaab


Thankfully, President Farmaajo has learned from the experiment and the nation is headed to a better future.




You are really bad at this cosplay. Maybe it is time for... another character?

[Gubbet]

[Nolol cusub]

How naive. You always were completely out of step cosplaying Karl Marx in fantasy league Xaafadee.

You have had 30 years of real, on the ground experimentation.

It is irrelevant to "predict" option when there are "results" from conclusion.

1. Warlordism
2. Shabaab


Thankfully, President Farmaajo has learned from the experiment and the nation is headed to a better future.




You are really bad at this cosplay. Maybe it is time for... another character?

kid, what is your point?

[Nolol cusub]

Your boy Farjaamo, is like Barre, really uneducated fella. He has the lowest IQ of anyone in pastoral Somali politics.

[SunFromNorth]

Hawiye can kick an entire government out in few days but can not defeat Al Shabab for a decade ?

[Nolol cusub]

Hawiye can kick an entire government out in few days but can not defeat Al Shabab for a decade ?

There are several factors contributing to the success of al-shabaab or rather the failure of the Southern Subclans. Locally, good governance is the key to local institution building. Such efforts will create shareholders within the the community and believe that local institutions are their to benefit.

The issue regardless of which BS somali politician running the cities, the states, local gov, national organs: THEY ARE PURE BANDITS, INSANELY CORRUPT ACROSS THE BOARD. Like afghanistan, billions of dollars have been wasted and western donors are caught between lesser of two evils.

Al-shabaab is winning by default for just being uncorrupt.

[paperino]

I think Nolol cusub as usual, due to being emotional, prematurely declared the fall of 'Farjaamo.'

[Nomand]

same Mogadishu birth we saw in 1991?

[Murax]

[tweet][/tweet]

[Nolol cusub]

I think Nolol cusub as usual, due to being emotional, prematurely declared the fall of 'Farjaamo.'

Once you become irrelevant in Mogadishu it is impossible to recover from that. He is basically an enemy warlord hiding in Mogadishu. He has zero capacity to issue orders, collect tax, change his destiny. I predict he will move to Baydhaba and drag himself into total irrelevance.

Another stat in pastoral black hole.

[Nolol cusub]

I am still predicting alshabaab will overrun Somalia within 15 years. The issue of Gedo warlord is nothing compared to what needs to be done to keep the radicals out. Mogadishu opposition lacks both the vision and institutions to move the people of Mogadishu forward.

1. Delay the national election for a year. Have the country run by a caretaker organization made up of the states.

2. Create two important states in Somalia. Mogadishu State and Gedo State.

3. The national bank of Somalia should be run by a non Somali, preferably a respected Muslim. All support and donated money should directly be deposited to that bank and be shared with real representatives of the states.

4. Each State should collect its taxes and keep its income. Mogadishu should never subsidize other states again.

5. Open communication channels with al shabaab. They should join the democratic process. They must renounce all violence and become a political party.

6. Hold 1 vote 1 man election within 4 years or kick the UN and AU out of Somalia. Why are they in Somalia?

7. Iraq and Afghanistan had 1 man 1 vote within a year of the US invasion, why? Because they are white? Is Somalia black that is why it cannot have 1 man i vote election?


Time is running out.

=

[gobdoon]

It's called back to basics and democracy must be built from the grass roots and local level, every mamul good example being Banaadir must be left to the local people without dictating them, they must choose people representing them, work that way local and national level

[paperino]

I predict he will move to Baydhaba and drag himself into total irrelevance.

Another stat in pastoral black hole.

He's still in Xamar, still the president, and would probably be reelected. Another stat of spectacularly failed prediction.

[Nomand]

It's called back to basics and democracy must be built from the grass roots and local level, every mamul good example being Banaadir must be left to the local people without dictating them, they must choose people representing them, work that way local and national level

do you support grass roots for the people of kismaayo?