From V:
Before I thought there was a 10% chance Farmajo will win in the 1st round and 90% chance Farmajo will win in the 2nd round. This was because I thought Farmajo would like to drag out the process to taunt the opposition backers chiefly the UAE. Then he and Dahir Geele would go to round 2 where he would sweep round 2.
Now I believe Farmaajo will outright win in the 1st round as a show of complete dominance.
Dahir Geele will still be in distant 2nd place.
Everybody else is white noise even the Puntland seats Deni wrestled will be bought from under him by the UAE and Saudi Arabia for Dahir Geele.
Unfortunately for them, Ethiopia, Qatar, Turkey, the US, and even the UK and rest of the West having been compelled by the IMF and World Bank have already essentially thrown their support behind Farmajo's reelection.






