Guriceel vs. Balanballe.. Guriceel point of view

[SultanOrder]

Each side blames the other for years of aano qabiil between Cayr (Habar Gidir) and Bah Xawaadle of reer Diini (Marehan)

[SultanOrder]

The problem is grazing (daaq). Voltage tried to explain this a number of times, but opped before fully explaining. I will ask him to explain in his own way if he can, but basically the problem is no one wants to go east. Everyone wants to go WEST.

Marehan have occupied the best grazing spots and eastern boundary of the Hawd.

Their neighbors to the West have been closed off from accessing the richer grazing. Guriceel itself formed because Cayr were prevented from accessing the West by Balanbale. All the main towns of the eastern clans (HG) from Gaalkacyo to Beled-Weyne are right outside this boundary zone just outside the Western clans (Darod).

Guriceel, Dhusamareb, Cadaado, Gelinsoor are right outside Galdogob, Dhudub, Caabudwaaq, Balanbale closing them off from where the rich Hawd grazing starts.

This is why it is never Reer Balanballe going east and wanting to graze outside Guriceel, but reer Guriceel always needing to go West to access the rich grazing that starts at Balanbale.

Especially now with drought, the eastern Clans are even more desperate to access the better grazing in the West. Grazing is finite and even in the West is limited, so this means rer Balanballe are not welcoming wishing to conserve the limited resource. Otherwise it will lead to over grazing and depleted land.

Ever since Voltage made me understand the true reality about land value and battle for resources in central Somalia, I realized this issue is probably the least understood issue in Somalia.

It led to the migration of Marehan and Darod in the Jubba regions forever changing the southern 1/3 of Somalia. It led to the narrative of the civil war. The repopulation of Mogadishu and the Shabelle Valley.

And it is still leading to the continuing instability of inter-clan fighting in Galmudug which is the only place in Somalia today where clan clashes are taking place.

Less than 30% of the land in central Somalia is valuable and only for nomadic grazing, not even agriculturally valuable.

And over 80% of that 30% valuable land is occupied by the Eastern clans (Darod) while the Western clans (HW/HG) occupying the vast 70% of the desolate land only access less than 20% of the valuable land.

The story in central Somalia is not about the size of land. It is about the quality of land.

Everyone is a victim of limited resources there.

[Kees70]

SO and Voltage,

Perhaps you are right, that currently all of clashes Galmudugs Reer Baadiyaasha are having is over grazing rights within lands that are deemed valuable today, but one can not deny the fact that those 70% of lands you considered ''desolated lands'' are in fact lands filled with untold Riches (Among the many Riches found are valuable metallic minerals such as are deposits of gold, silver, iron, lead-zinc ore, vast oils and huge uranium 2nd biggest in the world found in GM ), with the amount of Uranium found and proved in Galmudug we can have continuing Electricity for +100M Population for 500 years.

As we all know that Galmudug already has proven oil and uranium that's waiting to extracted, so it will be a matter of time before the State and its Society reaches the same level of wealth found in the Middle East.

So having said this my Galmudug compatriots, we all have a brighter and richer future if we remain steadfast and work united as 1 Citizens to make Galmudug and us prosperous.






P,s its an known Fact that an Oil and Uranium Rich lands are 100X more valuable than any fertile Arable lands, so today's fight may be over that 20% arable land but tomorrows future is with the other 80%.

[Sbashi]

HG overall are moving en mass to lower shabelle and Mogadishu today. Soon a very low amount of population will be left in the desert lands. Mx was ahead of the curve by 200 years. Mashallah our ancestors despite having the best land had the foresight to go conquer and explore better lands. Mx is always forward thinking and ambitious. These lands just were not enough.

There's a funny story about this. Once Aideed called all of HG cadres in Mogadishu for a meeting after they spread to afgoyee all the way to baraawe. And saw the greenery there, different kind of fruits and coconuts. He gave each one a plate that has dates and honey on one side and a stone on the other. They ate the dates and asked why the hell would he give them a stone. He told them, "the stone is where you came from and the honey and dates are this new land so capture it!"

[Sbashi]

Kees you're 100% right. The red sands of mudug and galgaduud are rich in tons of different minerals. They will definitely be the future, especially those places where not much grass grows. Galmudug could potentially power all of east africa. However, in the meantime since they can't be commercialized, and it won't put food inside the stomach of a starving nomad they will continue to be abandoned. It's going to be a long time before we take out those riches.

I do believe when we reach the stage where we take out those minerals, we will have a peaceful and prosperous somalia. One where clans don't have to kill each other over things as basic as water or food.

[Kees70]

HG overall are moving en mass to lower shabelle and Mogadishu today. Soon a very low amount of population will be left in the desert lands. Mx was ahead of the curve by 200 years. Mashallah our ancestors despite having the best land had the foresight to go conquer and explore better lands. Mx is always forward thinking and ambitious. These lands just were not enough.

There's a funny story about this. Once Aideed called all of HG cadres in Mogadishu for a meeting after they spread to afgoyee all the way to baraawe. And saw the greenery there, different kind of fruits and coconuts. He gave each one a plate that has dates and honey on one side and a stone on the other. They ate the dates and asked why the hell would he give them a stone. He told them, "the stone is where you came from and the honey and dates are this new land so capture it!"

The Hungry Hordes indeed captured a vast land in the South that provides bountiful supply of fresh foods, it will be very hard and difficult for the Beesha to ever return to Dhagax Galmudug anytime soon.

[Sbashi]

HG overall are moving en mass to lower shabelle and Mogadishu today. Soon a very low amount of population will be left in the desert lands. Mx was ahead of the curve by 200 years. Mashallah our ancestors despite having the best land had the foresight to go conquer and explore better lands. Mx is always forward thinking and ambitious. These lands just were not enough.

There's a funny story about this. Once Aideed called all of HG cadres in Mogadishu for a meeting after they spread to afgoyee all the way to baraawe. And saw the greenery there, different kind of fruits and coconuts. He gave each one a plate that has dates and honey on one side and a stone on the other. They ate the dates and asked why the hell would he give them a stone. He told them, "the stone is where you came from and the honey and dates are this new land so capture it!"

The Hungry Hordes indeed captured a vast land in the South that provides bountiful supply of fresh foods, it will be very hard and difficult for the Beesha to ever return to Dhagax Galmudug anytime soon.

[SultanOrder]

The problem is grazing (daaq). Voltage tried to explain this a number of times, but opped before fully explaining. I will ask him to explain in his own way if he can, but basically the problem is no one wants to go east. Everyone wants to go WEST.

Marehan have occupied the best grazing spots and eastern boundary of the Hawd.

Their neighbors to the West have been closed off from accessing the richer grazing. Guriceel itself formed because Cayr were prevented from accessing the West by Balanbale. All the main towns of the eastern clans (HG) from Gaalkacyo to Beled-Weyne are right outside this boundary zone just outside the Western clans (Darod).

Guriceel, Dhusamareb, Cadaado, Gelinsoor are right outside Galdogob, Dhudub, Caabudwaaq, Balanbale closing them off from where the rich Hawd grazing starts.

This is why it is never Reer Balanballe going east and wanting to graze outside Guriceel, but reer Guriceel always needing to go West to access the rich grazing that starts at Balanbale.

Especially now with drought, the eastern Clans are even more desperate to access the better grazing in the West. Grazing is finite and even in the West is limited, so this means rer Balanballe are not welcoming wishing to conserve the limited resource. Otherwise it will lead to over grazing and depleted land.

Ever since Voltage made me understand the true reality about land value and battle for resources in central Somalia, I realized this issue is probably the least understood issue in Somalia.

It led to the migration of Marehan and Darod in the Jubba regions forever changing the southern 1/3 of Somalia. It led to the narrative of the civil war. The repopulation of Mogadishu and the Shabelle Valley.

And it is still leading to the continuing instability of inter-clan fighting in Galmudug which is the only place in Somalia today where clan clashes are taking place.

Less than 30% of the land in central Somalia is valuable and only for nomadic grazing, not even agriculturally valuable.

And over 80% of that 30% valuable land is occupied by the Eastern clans (Darod) while the Western clans (HW/HG) occupying the vast 70% of the desolate land only access less than 20% of the valuable land.

The story in central Somalia is not about the size of land. It is about the quality of land.

Everyone is a victim of limited resources there.

I mixed up some of the directions (east and west) above and fixed it in the following.

The problem is grazing (daaq). Voltage tried to explain this a number of times, but stopped before fully explaining. I will ask him to explain in his own way if he can, but basically the problem is no one wants to go East. Everyone wants to go WEST.

Marehan have occupied the best grazing spots and boundary of the Hawd with central Somalia (Western Galmudug).

Their neighbors further East have been closed off from accessing the richer grazing in the West. Guriceel itself formed because Cayr were prevented from accessing the West by Balanbale. All the main towns of the Eastern clans (HG) from Gaalkacyo to Beled-Weyne are right outside this boundary zone just outside the Western clans (Darod).

Guriceel, Dhusamareb, Cadaado, Gelinsoor are right outside Galdogob, Dhudub, Caabudwaaq, Balanbale closing them off from where the rich Hawd grazing starts.

This is why it is never Reer Balanballe going East and wanting to graze outside Guriceel, but reer Guriceel always needing to go West to access the rich grazing that starts at Balanbale.

Especially now with drought, the eastern Clans are even more desperate to access the better grazing in the West. Grazing is finite and even in the West is limited, so this means rer Balanballe are not welcoming wishing to conserve the limited resource. Otherwise it will lead to over grazing and depleted land.

Ever since Voltage made me understand the true reality about land value and battle for resources in central Somalia, I realized this issue is probably the least understood issue in Somalia.

It led to the migration of Marehan and Darod in the Jubba regions forever changing the southern 1/3 of Somalia. It led to the narrative of the civil war. The repopulation of Mogadishu and the Shabelle Valley.

And it is still leading to the continuing instability of inter-clan fighting in Galmudug which is the only place in Somalia today where clan clashes are taking place.

Less than 30% of the land in central Somalia is valuable and only for nomadic grazing, not even agriculturally valuable.

And over 80% of that 30% valuable land is occupied by the Western Clans (Darod) while the Eastern clans (HW/HG) occupying the vast 70% of the desolate land only access less than 20% of the valuable land.

The story in central Somalia is not about the size of land. It is about the quality of land.

Everyone is a victim of limited resources there.

[SultanOrder]

SO and Voltage,

Perhaps you are right, that currently all of clashes Galmudugs Reer Baadiyaasha are having is over grazing rights within lands that are deemed valuable today, but one can not deny the fact that those 70% of lands you considered ''desolated lands'' are in fact lands filled with untold Riches (Among the many Riches found are valuable metallic minerals such as are deposits of gold, silver, iron, lead-zinc ore, vast oils and huge uranium 2nd biggest in the world found in GM ), with the amount of Uranium found and proved in Galmudug we can have continuing Electricity for +100M Population for 500 years.

As we all know that Galmudug already has proven oil and uranium that's waiting to extracted, so it will be a matter of time before the State and its Society reaches the same level of wealth found in the Middle East.

So having said this my Galmudug compatriots, we all have a brighter and richer future if we remain steadfast and work united as 1 Citizens to make Galmudug and us prosperous.






P,s its an known Fact that an Oil and Uranium Rich lands are 100X more valuable than any fertile Arable lands, so today's fight may be over that 20% arable land but tomorrows future is with the other 80%.

There is no doubt Galmudug is high on the list of possible places containing potential mineral resources in Somalia, but as of yet, this is still speculation like all things where Somalia's unexplored or underexplored potential natural resources are concerned.

You make a good argument though about the need to define what constitutes value seeing as land value can be judged in very diverse ways.

I am strictly talking about the ability of the land to be able to support the livelihood of pastoralism as the main socio-economic practice of the majority of the people in central Somalia.

The land value for that purpose is grossly disproportionate and land settlement/use is highly inequal.

Altogether, the resource is finite and universally threatening to all.

[Thecoolguysomali]

HG overall are moving en mass to lower shabelle and Mogadishu today. Soon a very low amount of population will be left in the desert lands. Mx was ahead of the curve by 200 years. Mashallah our ancestors despite having the best land had the foresight to go conquer and explore better lands. Mx is always forward thinking and ambitious. These lands just were not enough.

There's a funny story about this. Once Aideed called all of HG cadres in Mogadishu for a meeting after they spread to afgoyee all the way to baraawe. And saw the greenery there, different kind of fruits and coconuts. He gave each one a plate that has dates and honey on one side and a stone on the other. They ate the dates and asked why the hell would he give them a stone. He told them, "the stone is where you came from and the honey and dates are this new land so capture it!"

[Thecoolguysomali]

Ceyr were so desperate they even tried to ally mx for land in kismayo and to get farms in gedo but failed.
Idk why hg are trying to take lower Shabelle and shit when they have the large amounts of fish in hobyo wtf? somalis in general don't exploit this.

[SultanOrder]

Voltage said "this is how central Somalia is settled."

1. The clan boundaries have stayed almost completely the same since 1899 and the Galti migration.

Since the Marehan Galti migration to the Jubba River in the late 1800's/early 1900's the boundary has stayed almost completely the same.

These are 3 maps between 1890 and 1940's by the British War Office, Italian military, and travelor Robecchi Brichetti.







2. Population Density and Settlement.

So again, I am not going to expand on this right now, but following the community boundaries, I want to go ahead and present the general population density and settlements.

Becausr population estimates in Somalia are controversial, I am presenting density with settlements to reinforce a general picture or outline supported by most authorities on Somali population estimates.

I am also going to use two different eras, with population density from the most cited of recent estimates (UNDP 2000) and for settlements I will post from exactly 1960 in a malaria field study.

For settlements, it is important to show they have not been biased by Somali governments development schemes but actually show the same settlements existing today organically formed due to human reasons.

1. Population Density

The line for population density is a perimeter/boundary line between dífferent clusters (low density is separated from high density}




2. Population Settlement

The line for population settlements is the slope in XY graph (towns/village dots are the intercepts)

[SultanOrder]

And this is "why it is settled that way"

Almost all valuable resources for pastoralism in Central Somalia which is the primary socio-economic livelihood for Somali nomads is in the West particularly between Goldagob to Balanbale, with Caabudwaaq area especially privileged.

[SultanOrder]

An Update from Voltage:

It seems like the Wagardhac success and securing everything west of the Road at Gelinsoor from Sacad has started with Bah-Xawaadle and securing everything west of the road at Guriceel.

In the last major clash, the Bah-Xawaadle of Marehan moved all settlements east of Balanbale town back to Guriceel.

Now the Bah-Xawaadle (especially reer Siyaad) have gone SOUTHWEST into Ethiopia and burnt every settlement between Balanbale and Ceel Habreed.

It is important to understand the road goes southwest into Hiiraan and Matabaannto Beled-Weyn.

Starting at Matabaan the Cayr access Shilaabo/Ethiopia as Marehan land in central Somalia traditionally ended there.

Well in the last 30 years the Cayr that used to access Ethiopia grazing at Matabaan and traditionally used to go south to meet Xawaadle and Gugandhabe ar Feerfeer, started to go straight West to access traditional Balanbale grazing upto Laba Baar, Baar Magoog, Qalqalooc, and Ulasan.

It is also coincided with heavy reer Siyaad migration over 100 years to Garbahaareey in Gedo. Garbahaareey today is majority reer Siyaad---the same reer Siyaad who used to graze upto Khelaafo.

Yesterday, the reer Siyaad of Balanbale declared the same war Wagardhac declared against Sacad in 2015 when they attacked them on Dacdheer.

Reer Siyaad or more importantly Bah-Xawaadle (reer Siyaad and reer Warsame). ATTACKED INSIDE ETHIOPIA southwest nof Balanbale and burned all Cayr settlement between Balanbale and Ceel Habreed.

This is the beginning of a major, major, major initiative.

This is the 3rd such initiative of its nature where Marehan has declared such initiative "retaking."

1. Marehan/rer Hassan and Libaan Zone.

It was total victory. Deka-Suftu was birthed.

2. Marehan/Wagardhac and Saaxo grazing.

It was a total victory. The boundary at the road was reinstituted.

3. Now Marehan/bah-Xawaadle and Balanbale.

They have succeeded stopping encrochment east of Balanbale to Guricee, but last night officially declared this was not kust a "clash" but a planned, strategic, declaration of War when they scorched earth burned all Cayr settlements SOUTHWEST of BALANBALE IN ETHIOPIA.

In the last 15 years, it seems as though we have been seeing in action the origins of the infamous Somali saying "Qaan Mareexaan Waa Qaaxo Kugu Maqan."

It was ugly. It was barbaric. It was premeditated.

The irony is the historical continuity.

[SultanOrder]

Interview from Cayr perspective.

Three important disclaimers and things to keep in mind.

1. There is "Balanbale" the town and "Balanbale" the grazing land (from southern Dhusamareeb to inside Ethiopia). For example Balanbale is not even a " district. " It is a town part of Caabudwaaq district just like Guriceel is a town inside Dhusamareeb district. But both Balanbale "town" inside Balanbale the grazing land and Guriceel is at the periphery of it.

2. At one point, the Cayr witness claims "government troops" were the militia from Balanbale town but the "interviewer" immediately interjects that as a baseless assertion without evidence. The witness similarly responds flippantly, doesn't contests, and moves on anecdotally proving it was a baseless assertion by going back to "clan militia from Balanbale town."

3. The second witness says he is from GAALKACYO area and came all the way here for pasture. It puts into perspective everything Voltage has said about the environmental and resource scarcity at the heart of the difference between east and west of the Road. Although the majority of the land in Mudug/Galgaduud is east of the road, the valuable grazing/water rangelands is almost overwhelmingly West of the road. This is behind the clan problem with Hawiye being 100% east of the road, and Marehan being 95% west of the road (Xeraale the Dir/Fiqi Muxumud Quranic settlement that formed as religious priests to Marehan being the only non-Marehan settlement west of the road).

Also it shows the man who says he is from Gaalkaacyo area bypassed all the way down Saaxo, Dhabat, Caabudwaaq, etc to try to access grazing West of the road at Balanbale which shows really the extent to which the Darod/Hawiye boundary at central regions has reverted back to pre-1991 era.