I don't comment about Pres Farmaajo's reelection strategy since I said I wouldn't right before the September Agreement was signed. I may comment about what is going on in different parts of the country like what was behind Galmudug fighting or why the elders in Puntland rebuked Deni, but I won't give even my smallest thoughts about Pres Farmaajo's strategies. More people than I thought hang on to it apparently.
I will say this; Pres Farmaajo may be the single greatest Somali politician in recorded history. He is arguably better than even Siad who held power for 21 years.
I have believed all along Farmaajo will be reelected.
Not only do I believe that even more now, but I think we may even be witnessing the beginning stages of Somalia's own Erdogan movement.
I don't know how long his tenure might last without an already defined constitution and/or term limits or even if he may wish to seek more than 2 terms, but I would say it is a solid bet Somalia will see at least 3 terms of his presidency.
President Farmaajo has shown a mastery of something I call "the politics of disruption."
Oh and it is no surprise to me Hussein Aideed turned out to be an Ace, remember what I said about him when he first came back to Somalia earlier his year;
I don't think Hussein Caydiid is interested in Somali politics or is under any illusions anymore it is his forte just because of who his father was.
Hussein, in my estimation, came back to be a force multiplier against the shenanigans of Mahad Salaad/Abdirahman Abdishakuur, etc or any of the HG they have been pulling to their side.
I would wager an arm and a leg, Hussein has been promised an elder Nabadoon statesman title with the same shaxaad Cali Mahdi was milking since Abdullahi Yusuf
Cheers!