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Deni miscalculated his strength and popularity in Puntland. Deni is very popular among the diaspora of puntland an among the political elite of aaran jaan. however among the ISIMO and general population he is very unpopular. And the only reason why the diaspora put up with his nonsense is because he is using the "FARMAAJO" card.

Deni also does not have an army capable of being deployed to a location which can then complete their assigned mission. Notice how he had to get clan militias and their leaders to fight the PSF. Also notice how the first decree of the ISIMO was that Diano had to step down however his weapons are clan weapons and until all clans are disarmed bah dir won't be disarmed.

When Deni refused and waged war on bosaaso the ISIMO 2nd decree was even more harsh and included Diano to remain as head of PSF and he removal of PO from bosaso port and other aspects like 17 percent of bosaaso port going back to bosaaso.

The head of FEIT is ali salebaan who are the biggest MJ subclan in bosaaso they make up the majority of PMFP militia that refused to fight the PSF.

i think Geele is another miscalculation of deni similar to the 1p1v vote miscalculation deni done in 3 degmo of which he lost 2. till this day the new council has not taken office yet.

People like the paint Deni as a political savvy individual but that is the farthest from the truth he followed a script from UAE with his political battle against Farmaajo and the outcome was 17 September agreement which favours farmaajo, even though deni wrote the whole thing. then when he refused to uphold the 17th September agreement. Farmaajo allowed another agreement the 22 august agreement that gave the majority of the powers to the FMS. Again this was a win for Farmaajo and loss for Rooble and MM.

Anyway the current situation he sees himself in Puntland does not have a script from UAE which is why we are seeing for the first time the political naivety of Deni and his ultimate undoing.

Cali Saleebaan may hada kaa maree
he is one of Denis Kaah party cadres.

Sahal, you put a lot of emphasis who that person was affiliated with in the past. When we all know siyasada somalia has no friends but only interest and things change and move daily let alone what was what 2 years ago.

i am 100 percent certain Geele will put his own personal interest above that of Deni. If he is loyal to clan then he will put his sub clan's interest above that of Deni as they (ali salebaan) want to be free to pick their own MP's.

so it is either

1) his interest (money)
2) clan interest (cali selibaan)

If it is number 1 then he can be bought by the highest bidder if it is number 2 then that is bad news for Deni.

This means nothing and will not effect the competition, the new Gudoomiye has little to no power compared to the Mamuul SIET which selects the ergo and candidates. They also control warqadda dambi laanta CID and Booliska. This is no loss for Farmaajo as GM, HS and KG elections have already started.

I expect

Cali Yare to replace Mahad Salaad and Saadaq Joon to win the Cadaado seat against Abshir Bukhaari! Fiqi already sheekadiis wa dhamaatay Xaaf ba kursigaas iska leh

The real losers are Mucaaradka who have nothing, Saciid Deni only has Garowe seats and few Abgaal votes in HS LOL

Nomand,

Like has been known by anyone with 1st grade intelligence, the election from day one was Deni Vs Farmaajo. Tbh, I’m not saying this out of Qabil but it’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where Deni beats him. But hey I could be wrong.

This means nothing and will not effect the competition, the new Gudoomiye has little to no power compared to the Mamuul SIET which selects the ergo and candidates. They also control warqadda dambi laanta CID and Booliska. This is no loss for Farmaajo as GM, HS and KG elections have already started.

I expect

Cali Yare to replace Mahad Salaad and Saadaq Joon to win the Cadaado seat against Abshir Bukhaari! Fiqi already sheekadiis wa dhamaatay Xaaf ba kursigaas iska leh

The real losers are Mucaaradka who have nothing, Saciid Deni only has Garowe seats and few Abgaal votes in HS LOL

I wonder why they're silent & when they're gonna start their usual qaylo.

Nomand,

Like has been known by anyone with 1st grade intelligence, the election from day one was Deni Vs Farmaajo. Tbh, I’m not saying this out of Qabil but it’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where Deni beats him. But hey I could be wrong.

I think they both prefer it that way to be honest. If it is farmaajo vs deni in round 2 Farmaajo wins. Deni then can go back to puntland and do two more years of anti farmaajo stance and also be the last remaining anti farmaajo camp with some power thus all anti farmaajo funds will go to him. If farmaajo looses and Deni looses then it is over for him in puntland, aaran jaan and the diaspora will throw him under the bus.

but as you said i don't see a HAG President.

This means nothing and will not effect the competition, the new Gudoomiye has little to no power compared to the Mamuul SIET which selects the ergo and candidates. They also control warqadda dambi laanta CID and Booliska. This is no loss for Farmaajo as GM, HS and KG elections have already started.

I expect

Cali Yare to replace Mahad Salaad and Saadaq Joon to win the Cadaado seat against Abshir Bukhaari! Fiqi already sheekadiis wa dhamaatay Xaaf ba kursigaas iska leh

The real losers are Mucaaradka who have nothing, Saciid Deni only has Garowe seats and few Abgaal votes in HS LOL

governa Deni might not even get Garowe. tha nigga was begging tha islan of rer mahad for help against Diyana. tha islan said if u want omar mahamud help u ask our chief new politics chief Dagaweyne. dagaweyne told Deni we ain't sending shit against Diyana. 'cause habargidir waiting tha wings


u bet ur ass omar mahamud will do everything they can to prevent Hawiye prez. u got dolbahanta n isse mahamud mahamud. n Hidhidland state tribe. otha than ardent stealth secessionists in north nugal, no votes r guaranteed governa deni