Post Farmaajo Government will be very weak with a strong Parliament making case for further Confederation/Balkanization.

[Kees70]

As we all know the main number 1 reason Former President Farmaajo was fought by everyone, was because he tried to centralize the government by making federal states his subordinates beneath him and also unified and strengthened the Military into an centralized command, but now that Farmaajo's Centralist regime has collapsed, so too will the centralized system he created.

As we all know the Parliament has a very strong foundation filled with heavyweights MPs from all over the States, these heavyweight MPs will defend their State's and clans interests in the Parliament from any aggressive incoming government, thus making the next government very weak compared to farmaajos government who had an very weak Parliament at his time who were susceptible to corruption and fear-mongering.

Thus the question is, did we open an Pandora's box of Balkanization by overthrowing Farmaajo's centralism????

[SultanOrder]

That’s a very good analysis and that is a very important question that needs to be answered. The biggest issue is that these federal states cannot yet stand on their own two feet except Puntland. Jubbaland is a city state that pretends to be a federal state. Militarily and financially the federal states depend on the federal government that gets the money from Donors. The real question is, will the next administration give the same support as Farmaajo did?

[Kees70]

That’s a very good analysis and that is a very important question that needs to be answered. The biggest issue is that these federal states cannot yet stand on their own two feet except Puntland. Jubbaland is a city state that pretends to be a federal state. Militarily and financially the federal states depend on the federal government that gets the money from Donors. The real question is, will the next administration give the same support as Farmaajo did?

Yeah definitely sxb, its obvious by now that the Hawiyes shot themselves on the foot.

Hawiyes could have fought farmaajo/fahad while inheriting his Centralism authoritarian system, but now because of our zero-sum game we have empowered the Confederation camp inside Puntland, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, and Galmudug.

Do you honestly believe that the prominent oppositions inside the Parliament like AAW, Sanbaloolshe, Mahad Salaad, Firimbe, Fartaag, Odawaa, will suddenly cave in and submit to the next government if they dont get their way????

Among Hawiyes only Xawadle and HG dont mind if Somalia becomes Balkanized, among the Daroods its MJ and Ogaden, so i wonder will the incoming government be weak towards their demands of further balkanizations.

The real struggle will start Post-Farmaajo, so hate him or love him Farmaajo was the last Unifying figure of Somalia.

[sahal80]

The next elections will be general elections or one man, one vote elections so the next federal government will not depend much on the FMS presidents and will not try to eliminate the incumbents it will only be against their candidacy once their first term ends but the ex Damjadeed group especially Hassan Sheikh will not differ much from Farmaajo in polarization of society they will remove QoorQoor and Lafta gareen but may let Guudlaawe two finish his remaining two years as he doesn't fight the opposition but at the end they want one from them and solving the issue with Hiiraan.but as long the president is Abgaal they will have the upper hand in Hirshabelle. i personally like Damjadeed HG like Guueed or Rooble.

Sheikh Sharif is closer to cooperation between the main two clans in hirshabelle i think he will fix it some way hawadle prefers it its not only about the presidency but their kuraas in the parliament


Hassan Ali Kheyre will not differ from Farmaajo when we talk about totalitarian rule he is even worse than him in some aspects as he acts like a micromanager and will try to do the pm and ministers job but he may respect the end of his term thanks to being not Jeberti

Deni is going back to PL in the next 3 days


Next Govts priority will be one man, one vote elections and Security.

[Nomand]

Hassan sheikh for the first year of his term tried to form a powerful government he failed when kenya defeated barre hiiraale. since that point hassan sheikh gave up and was just there to enrich himself and his close circle.

sheikh sharif is not presidential, he doesn't know how to manage or does not have the capacity to manage, people underneath him will do as they please as they can easily fool him.

Deni i think is the next president. Deni has the most money, now with farmaajo gone Kenya wouldn't oppose deni infact i think they will support him more then any hawiye presidential candidate. the waqooyi and koonfur galbeed will go for the highest bidder and that will be Deni.

another interesting point would be if the 16 in ceelwaaq could be the tipping point that makes deni the next president.

[Isseayaanle]

If sharif or Hassan sh returns, expect a wear weak government and the return of Gabre 2.0. Also, if Deni wins one positive outcome is Somalis might finally start discussing move the capital.

[WadaniggaBarakaysan]

Kees70 finally realizing that without Farmaajo, any Hawiye man that becomes a president will have to be treated as co-equal with the leaders of the States (Puntland, Somaliland, Jubbaland, KS, HS, Galmudug) lol. It’s time maybe we returned to a 6 president style governing instead of under one president.

They said they want isbadal (change) and get elected Adan Madoobe who lost his seat in the past due to corruption and incompetency. What’s next? Elect Sheikh Sheriff or HSM again?

[MrSinister]

Hassan sheikh for the first year of his term tried to form a powerful government he failed when kenya defeated barre hiiraale. since that point hassan sheikh gave up and was just there to enrich himself and his close circle.

sheikh sharif is not presidential, he doesn't know how to manage or does not have the capacity to manage, people underneath him will do as they please as they can easily fool him.

Deni i think is the next president. Deni has the most money, now with farmaajo gone Kenya wouldn't oppose deni infact i think they will support him more then any hawiye presidential candidate. the waqooyi and koonfur galbeed will go for the highest bidder and that will be Deni.

another interesting point would be if the 16 in ceelwaaq could be the tipping point that makes deni the next president.

True. Also, laftagareen would want a non Hawiye president. A hag president is going to try to get rid of him as SWS president. It in his interest to make sure Deni wins if farmajo has no chance.

[Kees70]

Kees70 finally realizing that without Farmaajo, any Hawiye man that becomes a president will have to be treated as co-equal with the leaders of the States (Puntland, Somaliland, Jubbaland, KS, HS, Galmudug) lol. It’s time maybe we returned to a 6 president style governing instead of under one president.

They said they want isbadal (change) and get elected Adan Madoobe who lost his seat in the past due to corruption and incompetency. What’s next? Elect Sheikh Sheriff or HSM again?

Insha'Allahi the Next Hawiye Government will be an Extremist HAG Centralist, if Farmaajo an Darood can do it, than so will we.

[BigBreak]

Everyone in Somalia is either always a centralist (regardless of whether their clan is on top or not) or sometimes a centralist (depends if their clan is on top). Somalia should not have a national military and should copy the UAE system of federal government

[Amin5457]

Xawadle won’t balkanise shit especially our s/dhex. You have to rember these are the same guys who live under control us as hostages in medino. If they had any power, they’d stop being bullied by us there forget hirshabelle. Certain langaabs have such extreme jealousy for abgaal that they constantly use xawadle as hirshabelle face front when we all know they don’t run shit in hirshabelle. There’s a reason why my favourite hg are ceyr and salabeen and not the langaab sacad who get ass fucked in baraxley.

[Nubis]

Hope works out.