Somalia's comical path to Afghanistan

[Nolol cusub]

Here, Uganda's dictator is complaining to newly elected president about the unpaid salaries of his soldiers in Mogadishu. As usual Somalia's president falls back to a much more reliable ground of platitudes " his excellency, Uganda's historical ties" to Somalia. Both men know exactly what they are doing but none wants to say it in public.

Here is what each one is thinking privately:

Uganda's dictator: "Half of Uganda's defence expenditure comes from our efforts in Somalia in making sure that Islamic law is never implemented in Somalia." You better not mess with our cut.

HSM: Mutha fucker I am just here to manage the situation for just for more years. You think there is so much to go around before the ship comes down" Ashraf Ghani mutha faka.

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[Nolol cusub]

At one time in the conversation Museveni betrays how out of touch he is on the ground reality in southern Somalia, "If I am a poor man and I don't have money I can mobilize my son, my brother we defend our home. Nobody is paying, we want peace"

In reality, every business in Southern Somalia are forced to pay monthly fee to Islamic insurgency groups. And just like Afghanistan where family members were fighting on both sides, insurgency groups have been recruiting among family members.

Is it a lost cause? Resounding yes in Southern Somalia.


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[noer]

⌃ not a lost cause for the ex italian colony. yet. they gonna survive gurgurte. choose an ambitious leader. a leader that will reign in the governors. tell atmis to f**ķ off. maybe farmajo run again gurgurte might even vote for farmajo if farmajo willing to pay enough bribes

[original dervish]

I knew hsm was useless.....but even this shi t shocked me.
Someone as imbecilic and incompetent as hsm shouldn't be in charge of a tea shop let alone a country.

Now Ethiopia is taking over the entire border region from Gedo to Mudug with the collaboration of the federal states.

Al Shabaab are resurgent in the interior. At this rate Somalia will cease to exist as a state.

[Murax]

Comparing Somalia to Afghanistan is laughable. The foreign minister of China just landed in Kabul to talk business. Afghanistan sits on unprecedented wealth, but unlike Somalia they are in full control of their resources unlike Somalia.


Difference between talbaan and AL shaydaan is the typical Somali Sub Par 68 IQ, as well as the fact that Talibaan is homegrown while AL Shaydaan are remote controlled from Xalane, Dubai.

[Nomand]

Comparing Somalia to Afghanistan is laughable. The foreign minister of China just landed in Kabul to talk business. Afghanistan sits on unprecedented wealth, but unlike Somalia they are in full control of their resources unlike Somalia.


Difference between talbaan and AL shaydaan is the typical Somali Sub Par 68 IQ, as well as the fact that Talibaan is homegrown while AL Shaydaan are remote controlled from Xalane, Dubai.

Taliban also have a single supreme leader. While al shabaab is split. Muktaar roobow/ aweys/ ahmed madoobe all splintered from al shabaab but are still basically al shabaab.

So your correct we are worse then Afghanistan.

[original dervish]

The main difference is that Somali has no real leaders.
If you go through the list of former presidents and federal regions you will see they all require sponsors/pimps.

[Nolol cusub]

⌃ they gonna survive gurgurte. choose an ambitious leader.

Your thinking is upside down. HSM is a perfect fit with the most relevant group in Southern Somalia, the Hawiyes. He is likely to enhance all the advantages they have in the south in terms of the economy, demographics, education, and security apparatus.

Choose an ambitious leader. a leader that will reign in the governors. tell atmis to f**ķ off. maybe farmajo run again

States are here to stay, there will never be a dictator in Somalia again. This is another reason why HSM/Roble and their crew have been a perfect with Mogadishu's ecosystem.

a leader that will reign in the governors. tell atmis to f**ķ off. maybe farmajo run again

He is literally irrelevant. Even after 30 years, and losing the civil war and all, his lot have never figured out the source of their weakness. Hint: there is a reason why Ogaden is a prime minister.

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[Nolol cusub]

Now Ethiopia is taking over the entire border region from Gedo to Mudug with the collaboration of the federal states.

There is no Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been in a full blown civil war for almost 3 years. Abiy and his Amhara Junta cannot manage Ethiopia multi-ethnic/religious communities with their outdated Menelik and Selassie mentality. The fact they are reacting to al-Shabaab provocation shows their weakness.

Al Shabaab are resurgent in the interior. At this rate Somalia will cease to exist as a state.

The big question in the Somalia is who will incorporate who? Will Hawiye incorporate al-shabaab or will al-shabaab incorporate Hawiyes?

It is a complex subject and with so many factors built into it. Sooner or later though Hawiyes will have to absorb al-shabaab. There is no other outcome. This cannot happen as long as the Amhra Junta is seen as a threat. That is why the conflict will be managed by HSM and his crew in a small scale military industrial complex. By 2027 though, you will see a different thinking taking place among Hawiyes and Somalis in general. Both Somalia and Ethiopia will be forced to deal with a bigger issue: a persistent and devastating impact of global warming.

You said in another thread: all Somali leaders are useless. Agree. By 2030 none of the states can afford such a useless people. It literally becomes matter of death and life.


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[Nolol cusub]

Difference between talbaan and AL shaydaan is the typical Somali Sub Par 68 IQ, as well as the fact that Talibaan is homegrown while AL Shaydaan are remote controlled from Xalane, Dubai.

Al-shabaab was a reaction to the Tigre invasion of Somalia in 2007, the same way Mujaahidiin came out of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Of the 4 characteristics of states, Al-shabaab has already achieved 3 of them. They are a formidable group. From Baledweyne to raskamboni they have taken over covertly.

Counter terrorism lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan:

1. Securing the population is the biggest prize in counter terrorism.

2. Living close to the population and catering they needs is paramount.


Who is really securing people covertly and is very close to the people of Baledweyn to Raskambomi?

Of course, alshabaab.

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[noer]

Difference between talbaan and AL shaydaan is the typical Somali Sub Par 68 IQ, as well as the fact that Talibaan is homegrown while AL Shaydaan are remote controlled from Xalane, Dubai.

Al-shabaab was a reaction to the Tigre invasion of Somalia in 2007, the same way Mujaahidiin came out of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Of the 4 characteristics of states, Al-shabaab has already achieved 3 of them. They are a formidable group. From Baledweyne to raskamboni they have taken over covertly.

Counter terrorism lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan:

1. Securing the population is the biggest prize in counter terrorism.

2. Living close to the population and catering they needs is paramount.


Who is really securing people covertly and is very close to the people of Baledweyn to Raskambomi?

Of course, alshabaab.

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i'm with u 90%

but the federal states they are not staying. their cirrent structure is fueling al shabab. al shabab absorbng minority subtribes. minority subtribes of hawiya. murursade chief among them. minority magertenlanders join ISIL. next jubaland. weaker subclans of cagder. n rahanweynland. minorities. the jarerweyn tribe. the federal states are doomed. governors who are fugitives in much of their aleged territories

solution. gurgurte gonna have man up. do what farmajo wanted to do. reign in the governors. federal president supremacy over the 5 governors in the ex italian colony

[Nolol cusub]

solution. gurgurte gonna have man up. do what farmajo wanted to do. reign in the governors. federal president supremacy over the 5 governors in the ex italian colony

You are advocating the cart before the horse again.

1. Strong central government cannot be the solution for Somalia again. We all remember how disastrously that turned out to be in 1991. Habargidir and Hawiyes business community are too mature to fall for that shit again.

2. Mogadishu central government is puppet for the CIA's counter-terrorism project in East Africa, nothing more nothing less. They pushed over-centralization both in Afghanistan and Iraq and in both instances it failed fantastically.

3. You cannot defeat Sunni insurgency from without, the solution comes from within. States have to have stakes in the outcome and own up their mistakes and opportunities.

4. Is too late for the South? Yes. Just like Afghanistan and Iraq where resources and opportunities were wasted in pursuing the wrong policies and mega corruption projects, Southern Somalia cannot be wrestled back from the insurgency.

5. Galmudug is already the next battle lines. Will habargidir rise to the challenge? Hard to say. Certentialy though, there is more awareness now than few years back that the group poses a real danger to Mudug people.

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[Nolol cusub]

[noer]

solution. gurgurte gonna have man up. do what farmajo wanted to do. reign in the governors. federal president supremacy over the 5 governors in the ex italian colony

You are advocating the cart before the horse again.

1. Strong central government cannot be the solution for Somalia again. We all remember how disastrously that turned out to be in 1991. Habargidir and Hawiyes business community are too mature to fall for that shit again.

2. Mogadishu central government is puppet for the CIA's counter-terrorism project in East Africa, nothing more nothing less. They pushed over-centralization both in Afghanistan and Iraq and in both instances it failed fantastically.

3. You cannot defeat Sunni insurgency from without, the solution comes from within. States have to have stakes in the outcome and own up their mistakes and opportunities.

4. Is too late for the South? Yes. Just like Afghanistan and Iraq where resources and opportunities were wasted in pursuing the wrong policies and mega corruption projects, Southern Somalia cannot be wrestled back from the insurgency.

5. Galmudug is already the next battle lines. Will habargidir rise to the challenge? Hard to say. Certentialy though, there is more awareness now than few years back that the group poses a real danger to Mudug people.

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90%

only clarification is point 1

you say no strong central government. the opps in ur FMS don't trust the governor. they trust central government more. y'all need to work out the relationship between governors and the president. gedo finna declare garbaharey interim capital. ustad sahal ready to take hirshabele from harti abgal. magertenland ISIL, Diana, n omar mahamud not happy wit governor Deni. niggas need a neutral arbiter. the central government. maybe. y'all need to work that out. alls i'm saying is incompetent n divisive governors are responsible for al shabab n ISIL in the ex italian colony