Deni politically defeated

[Nomand]

Puntland was forced to sign the agreement by the xalane mafia. Puntland under farmaajo got more money then now under hassan sheikh. And it is without a doubt puntland would have gotten its way if farmaajo was still president.

The special status puntland enjoyed is completely finished and they are no different then galnus. hassan sheikh has paid the xalane mafia with the aid money and they are 100 percent on his side now. Deni also lost support from Kenya and UAE which now directly deal with culusow.

https://www.facebook.com/Husseinjama201 ... dXbPizdC2l

[MrSinister]

Deni failed, there is no doubt about it. In hindsight, both Deni and Farmajo should have not waged their zero sum game as only the hutus and cagdheers benefited. I suspect there were elements within Deni admin that were working behind his back.

PL is in precarious position, but the positive is PL will be even more independent from the FGS going forward. Farmajo was popular with shacabka PL while HSM is hated.

We are going to confederation government at this rate with SL,PL, al shabab government, and hutu FGS protected by amisom.

[Nomand]

Caaghdeers also failed. Hamza is a puppet and caaghdeer are no longer needed by kenya. Kenya will now directly deal with culusow.

You will slowly see madoobe loose grip on kismaayo. As for confederation the hutus will never agree they eat using somalias name. And their paper states are nothing without mogadishu.

But Puntland does not have any cards left to play against hutus. No darod supports them even madoobe back stabbed Deni.

[MrSinister]

Caaghdeers also failed. Hamza is a puppet and caaghdeer are no longer needed by kenya. Kenya will now directly deal with culusow.

You will slowly see madoobe loose grip on kismaayo. As for confederation the hutus will never agree they eat using somalias name. And their paper states are nothing without mogadishu.

But Puntland does not have any cards left to play against hutus. No darod supports them even madoobe back stabbed Deni.

It doesn’t matter if they agree with it or not, the fgs has no presence in PL. I don’t think much will change from before, if PL gets less donor aid and is more independent, that’s a win long term.

PL can always go it’s own way and completely sever ties with the FGS which is part of PL constitution. I don’t think the IC wants to deal with another breakaway region.

Also, give it a year or two and most Hawiye will turn against HSM.

Deni is doing good so far with his renewed focus on PL. There is no need for him to show all his cards yet, just be neutral, and wait as the HSM admin continues to destroy the country especially the south.

But forget about PL, marexaan is in worse off position than any clan. You guys are divided, with puppets representing you and no state of your own. I still don’t understand why some of you still support farmajo. His whole term was about making fgs and xamar more powerful and it completely backfired.

[Gubbet]

Deni's trajectory is sort of extraordinary for being the best example I have seen of what NOT to be in Somalia politics.

A man who considers everyone an enemy---allies included, is considered an enemy by all---including his allies; man who raises great opposition against others with the same fervor and effort he raises great opposition against himself, a man so sure of his powers of effecting your friendship, he betrays you spectacularly in broad daylight and before final battle as a public spectacle of his powers and authority.

Deni was never liked, respected, or even appreciated, it would seem, even for a moment by his opposition bedfellows. He was used to the exact degree he assumed he was using them.

Obviously he and Puntland utilized their own agency in being opposition, so one can't accuse Deni of having been manipulated, but the centralism Farmaajo was accused of is now actual centralization and the Deni who sought foreign empowerment against then "centralism" is now held hostage to "centralization."

Irony.

[Gubbet]

Caaghdeers also failed. Hamza is a puppet and caaghdeer are no longer needed by kenya. Kenya will now directly deal with culusow.

You will slowly see madoobe loose grip on kismaayo. As for confederation the hutus will never agree they eat using somalias name. And their paper states are nothing without mogadishu.

But Puntland does not have any cards left to play against hutus. No darod supports them even madoobe back stabbed Deni.

It doesn’t matter if they agree with it or not, the fgs has no presence in PL. I don’t think much will change from before, if PL gets less donor aid and is more independent, that’s a win long term.

PL can always go it’s own way and completely sever ties with the FGS which is part of PL constitution. I don’t think the IC wants to deal with another breakaway region.

Also, give it a year or two and most Hawiye will turn against HSM.

Deni is doing good so far with his renewed focus on PL. There is no need for him to show all his cards yet, just be neutral, and wait as the HSM admin continues to destroy the country especially the south.

But forget about PL, marexaan is in worse off position than any clan. You guys are divided, with puppets representing you and no state of your own. I still don’t understand why some of you still support farmajo. His whole term was about making fgs and xamar more powerful and it completely backfired.

Marehan is like Majerten in the 70's, Isaaq in the 80's Abgaal in the 90's, etc.

By that I mean after the SSDF coup failed in 1978, or SNM declared war in 1982, or the 1993 Mogadishu green line was enacted...these groups by their own estimation had entered such a period where the start of the period was so extraordinary, they could only improve their circumstances from therein and were resigned to wait.

The entrance of Kenyan Defense Forces physically into Somalia and particularly in Kismaayo in 2010 was that moment for Marehan. Everything concerning their equity as they view it is suspended in "transition" until this factor is removed and they have impressed on me, quite starkly, time is on their side.

This is what is so ironic about Ahmed Madoobe's supporters when you remind them of the opportunity and length of time the man has had to build a real, credible, and lasting Jubbaland capable of surviving his tenure. They will become emotionally disturbed and even taunt with Madoobe's monarchical rights to tenure.

Well, even if he rules in Kismaayo until dealth, his tenure is still merely transitory. The moment is not infinity and it is even possible KDF might suddenly withdraw next year. What makes Madoobe's tenure possible is exactly what the Marehan have as their biggest weapon going for them; KDF has a begining and an end in their "time" inside Somalia.

I would like to ask you a question though; it seems to me Puntland elites are facing a watershed moment right now.

• Underpinning Puntland's "national" policy has been achieving two issues;
  
  1. Somalia under Federalism, not Puntland under Mogadishu
  2. Gedo under Kismaayo, not Kismaayo under Jubbaland.

I am not going to expand on this point at all or rehash narratives but it seems to me the outcome Puntland is facing this moment is the failure and confusion brought about by the schizophrenic synergy between the two issues. I think this outcome is really a stark sign that Puntland needs to have an intellectual conversation about what is really more a priority for Puntland of those two issues and how to incorporate one under the other as a single national policy that is not confusing and leads to failure. What do you think about this observation of mine?

[MrSinister]

Gubbet

I’m still waiting for your debrief on what went wrong with farmajo re-election campaign. I suspect, majority of the Halane mafia as nomad calls them turned against farmajo as he became unpredictable and difficult to control for them. HSM is a useful idiot for them. AMisom and the so called international community is probably the biggest obstacle Somalia has as they constantly use our divisions against us.

To answer your question and I’m speaking from my observations, I think those conversations about PLs future are happening now. In terms of what exactly was gained from PLs perspective on getting involved in JL politics. I suspect for the older generation, there is a deep connection to the south and especially Kismayo. The goal was to have JL and PL as a united block to protect against xamar. I think it worked for the most part especially against farmajo, but the dynamics are changing now, and the mistake PL elites made is assuming a snake like madobe would back them when he wasn’t vulnerable anymore.

I think Deni from his speech and current action with local elections sees the error of his way and that no Hawiye president despite what they say during campaign season is interested in sharing power with federal member states especially one that is functioning and controls majority of their land like PL.

My hope is PL moves on from the generation of politicians who use PL as a stepping stone for positions in Xamar.

[Nomand]

Caaghdeers also failed. Hamza is a puppet and caaghdeer are no longer needed by kenya. Kenya will now directly deal with culusow.

You will slowly see madoobe loose grip on kismaayo. As for confederation the hutus will never agree they eat using somalias name. And their paper states are nothing without mogadishu.

But Puntland does not have any cards left to play against hutus. No darod supports them even madoobe back stabbed Deni.

It doesn’t matter if they agree with it or not, the fgs has no presence in PL. I don’t think much will change from before, if PL gets less donor aid and is more independent, that’s a win long term.

PL can always go it’s own way and completely sever ties with the FGS which is part of PL constitution. I don’t think the IC wants to deal with another breakaway region.

Also, give it a year or two and most Hawiye will turn against HSM.

Deni is doing good so far with his renewed focus on PL. There is no need for him to show all his cards yet, just be neutral, and wait as the HSM admin continues to destroy the country especially the south.

But forget about PL, marexaan is in worse off position than any clan. You guys are divided, with puppets representing you and no state of your own. I still don’t understand why some of you still support farmajo. His whole term was about making fgs and xamar more powerful and it completely backfired.

The whole parliament is full of puppets not just mx. At least they have 5 from galagaduud that are xor. Take for example murusade MP's they can't even condemn mahad salaad on how he destroyed their hotel xayaat neither do they even say anything regarding arming other hutus to basically kill murusade in ceelbuur.

Even MJ mp's can't say anything regarding how deni basically destroyed puntland and how he made them weaker. So majority of the mp's are puppets. Loud mouths like odawaa and cabdi Shakur warsame are silent about qoor qoor extention. Dude 90 percent of mps don't care about their deegaan or their clan it is about making money.

As for state I agree mx are without but that is because of kenya and the xalane mafia who make money from kenya. But I disagree that marehan are the worst off, as you yourself stated farmaajo gave us nothing therefore we have nothing to loose.

Mayor losers are puntland and hutu civilians. Major winners xalane mafia and the few hutu that made money. Long term loosers will be caaghdeers as they have weakened themselves due to kenya no longer needed them as much as before. As culusow is basically like madoobe and will sign anything to kenya.

BTW deni is loosing grip on puntland he basically fired all of your mayor's in one day. No one that is stable in his position would do something like that.

[noer]

didn't know y'all niggas was as critical of stealth secessionism as i am


on the real though. governor deni got nothing to worry about. until it's Issa Mahamud turn. he better hope the islan of Issa Mahamud don't chose the next governor of magertenland

gurgurte wuhu sugaya ila intu ku aflaxo am ku fashilmo inu madobe ka takhaluso. kolkasu maga'abydona PM kale


me tink gurgurte wants a weak PM who won't challenge him in 2026. n who can might him seats. marehan or issa mahamud. farmajo gonna challenge him. but a weak stealth secessionist PM close to the next governor of magertenland. governor deni really f***ed up in political calculus. even if gurgurte chose a magertenland, it's gonna be issa mahamud

if the cagder PM or his replacement fail to be a weak PM, i'm the ex italian colony's deputy pm. ready to do the job. it's the only reason idoor pretend to be dir in hamar

[Khalid Ali]

Goood points gubbet


sinister why dont u guys declare just independence what is there in mogadishu for you or do you think puntland cant survive with out mogadishu

[noer]

Goood points gubbet


sinister why dont u guys declare just independence what is there in mogadishu for you or do you think puntland cant survive with out mogadishu

bingo

sinister believes magertenland is the ex italian colony's empty quarter

why i call him the the stealth secessionist. he is already independent but too afraid to declare it

[theyuusuf143]

The dhabayacos knows thier weakness so they make themselves seem like very important for somalia Even though they don't contribute any thing to somalia.

They pay no tax
They don't allocate any man power for the national defence
They don't invest one penny in xamar.

It's funny how qadaadweyns are programmed to believe that somaliland is somali diid. While these dhabayacos are milking the cow without feeding it. At least we are investing xamar. What do they do for somalia ?

[theyuusuf143]

The dhabayacos should be reduced to what they are, small peaceful fishermen community.

[Khalid Ali]

The dhabayacos knows thier weakness so they make themselves seem like very important for somalia Even though they don't contribute any thing to somalia.

They pay no tax
They don't allocate any man power for the national defence
They don't invest one penny in xamar.

It's funny how qadaadweyns are programmed to believe that somaliland is somali diid. While these dhabayacos are milking the cow without feeding it. At least we are investing xamar. What do they do for somalia ?

The vast majority of the hawiye believe in the narrative of the darood when it comes to Somaliland with the exception of a few xawaadle and a few habragedir the rest fall behind what ever darood , that isaaq and somaliland are somali diid that isaaq is there to divide the somali people
its very hard to defeat this mindset because the hawiyes mostly are very attached to the marada bluega not sure why
it was isaaaq that came twice to their rescue once during the ethiopian invasion we send our best fighters our best jihadist to exterminate the habesha invasion of mogadishu and it worked amiir ahmed godane and and sheikh afghani were a dream team with the blessing of the late sheikh warsame of burco spiritual leader who send his blessings and support from burco it was the then somaliland government that took in all the refugges from mogadishu in hargeisa and treated them as equal people the hawiyes were allowed to buy lands in somaliland

even though the constutions says one cant sell land to foreigners ajanabis any way thats not all when the flight full of refugees were refused to land any where in somalia ,,president rayaale gave premission to land in hargeisa igaal international airport second time was back 2011 when ther was a big famine the people of somaliland collected over a million dollars even school childeren donated their money to mogadishu and we send sheikh raage and abwaan hadraawi to hand over the support to the late leader of bunker sheikh dalxiiis

yet they consider the jabuutians their brothers and us their enemies when the jabuutians allowed america use their country as a base to attack the late general aideed and use drones in somalia not sure

just because the darood share and cries for marada bluega thats why the hawiyes feel closer that the darood is closer to them then the isaaq

wa caadi we already said good bye to somalia

[mahoka]

The darod farmaajo tried to be smart by appointing khayre, he fell for hawiye trap- by appointing khayre he gave hawiye the automatic right to appoint cagdheer/leelkase/warsangeli etc as pm- this kills both maheertenia and reer caabudwaaq with one stone.


Farmaajo was a disaster for darod, he wanted to stick it to the mj since his base (mx and dhulo) got deep hate for mj but instead shot himself in the foot.


Majeerten as usual overplayed their cards and today their closest allies in Somalia (og) is a competitor due to mj tantrum over og pm - ogaden on social media have been shocked at the venom mj is spitting just because og got the pm. Mj is now the most isolated entity in Somalia, with their biggest rivals being other darod clans such as mx and og.


We have to give it to HAG, they literally used darod scheming and double crossing against the darods, some say this is poetic.


This is the problem of darod zero sum politik.