2022 Sinadhaqo & Moqokori captured from Shabab; 2020 & 2018 Sinadhaqo & Moqokori captured from Shabab; 2016 & 2015..

[Gubbet]

No, really.

1. Moqokori last captured from Shabaab in 2018 after Shabaab had retaken it in 2016 after AMISOM Ethiopian had taken from them in 2012;
   

   Ciidamada dawladda Soomaaliya ayaa saaka dagaal kula wareegay deegaanka Moqokori ee gobalka Hiiraan oo ay gacanta ku hayaan ururka Al-Shabaab.
   
   https://www.bbc.com/somali/war-43231012.amp

2. Sinadhaqo & twin "Lebidulli" was also taken in
   2021, and 2020, and 2018...
   

   Saraakiisha howlgalka Ciidamada hoggaamineysay ay sheegeen inay Ciidamada la wareegeen deegaanada labi dule iyo sina dhaqo ee duleedka Magaalada Dhuusamareeb
   
   https://allbalcad.net/2020/10/23/ciidam ... l-shabaab/

The mindless neurosis of this running loop is extremely predictable.

If after all the effort, this country ends up like Afghanistan, I will "not" be surprised.

Two years ago, I penned my thoughts regarding this loop and shared what I observed to be the disconnect between "capturing" territory from Shabaab and successfully "holding" that territory in the heartland of the country.

For anyone who thinks my criticism of this helpless obsession with force alone is predicated on opposing the current government, this is what I said under Farmaajo where even then, while endorsing security reform adopting stabilization, I said the only guarantee of success will be when and if the communities in the center decide they have confidence in socio-politico restitution and equity in the political process.

Jowhar and Balcad were LIBERATED and among the first places outside of Mogadishu.

As you know SECURITY REFORM is the single biggest legacy of this government. Security reform is more than just fighting. It is also about STRATEGY. Extensive RESEARCH has found two major reasons for Al Shabaab's persistence in the center of the country...a sort of triangle between Kismaayo -Baidoa -Ceelbuur.



FIRST REASON is the amount of diversity of clans, dialects, and even societies (practically all so called "minority groups" from Somali Bantu to farming cooperatives) present that feel EXCLUDED and MARGINALIZED. They are the biggest source of fighters and recruiters and even safe havens for Shabab. These people have EQUALITY and even dignity to be honest under Shabab who make no distinction based on all the whimsical social conditions we have put in place here on earth. The Somali Bantu or Eyle boy is the same as the Abgaal or Hawiye boy in the neighborhood. Maybe even more important on account of Shabaab being dependent on the minority communities. This is why EVERYTIME THOSE AREAS WERE "CAPTURED, " THEY FELL BACK TO Shabaab the minute AMISOM and SNA moved on. That is because there is a POLITICAL AND SOCIO-CULTURAL problem more unique and prevalent here separate than all the other issues that were feeding insecurity generally.

...

The REAL challenge will be the "Gosha" area of Jubbaland (from Jamame and Jilib to Saakoow), the two Shabelle regions (Lower and Middle Shabelle) and the Hiran Region with the entire half west of the Shabelle River.

It is going to be very rocky interesting to see how this goes.

A campaign is one thing, but one without even a stabilization program whose importance the previous government had established recognition of in counter-insurgency---and one which seriously debates "arming clans" is a prohibitive and counter-productive strategy by all measure of established evidence and experience.

The "capture porn" preoccupation being fanned is nothing short of distraction from the hollow and bankrupt redudancy of this running "loop."

We have seen this "capture" scene; and it looks just like the one(s) before it that could not sustain a "hold."

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

No, really.

1. Moqokori last captured from Shabaab in 2018 after Shabaab had retaken it in 2016 after AMISOM Ethiopian had taken from them in 2012;
   

   Ciidamada dawladda Soomaaliya ayaa saaka dagaal kula wareegay deegaanka Moqokori ee gobalka Hiiraan oo ay gacanta ku hayaan ururka Al-Shabaab.
   
   https://www.bbc.com/somali/war-43231012.amp

2. Sinadhaqo & twin "Lebidulli" was also taken in
   2021, and 2020, and 2018...
   

   Saraakiisha howlgalka Ciidamada hoggaamineysay ay sheegeen inay Ciidamada la wareegeen deegaanada labi dule iyo sina dhaqo ee duleedka Magaalada Dhuusamareeb
   
   https://allbalcad.net/2020/10/23/ciidam ... l-shabaab/

The mindless neurosis of this running loop is extremely predictable.

If after all the effort, this country ends up like Afghanistan, I will "not" be surprised.

Two years ago, I penned my thoughts regarding this loop and shared what I observed to be the disconnect between "capturing" territory from Shabaab and successfully "holding" that territory in the heartland of the country.

For anyone who thinks my criticism of this helpless obsession with force alone is predicated on opposing the current government, this is what I said under Farmaajo where even then, while endorsing security reform adopting stabilization, I said the only guarantee of success will be when and if the communities in the center decide they have confidence in socio-politico restitution and equity in the political process.

Jowhar and Balcad were LIBERATED and among the first places outside of Mogadishu.

As you know SECURITY REFORM is the single biggest legacy of this government. Security reform is more than just fighting. It is also about STRATEGY. Extensive RESEARCH has found two major reasons for Al Shabaab's persistence in the center of the country...a sort of triangle between Kismaayo -Baidoa -Ceelbuur.



FIRST REASON is the amount of diversity of clans, dialects, and even societies (practically all so called "minority groups" from Somali Bantu to farming cooperatives) present that feel EXCLUDED and MARGINALIZED. They are the biggest source of fighters and recruiters and even safe havens for Shabab. These people have EQUALITY and even dignity to be honest under Shabab who make no distinction based on all the whimsical social conditions we have put in place here on earth. The Somali Bantu or Eyle boy is the same as the Abgaal or Hawiye boy in the neighborhood. Maybe even more important on account of Shabaab being dependent on the minority communities. This is why EVERYTIME THOSE AREAS WERE "CAPTURED, " THEY FELL BACK TO Shabaab the minute AMISOM and SNA moved on. That is because there is a POLITICAL AND SOCIO-CULTURAL problem more unique and prevalent here separate than all the other issues that were feeding insecurity generally.

...

The REAL challenge will be the "Gosha" area of Jubbaland (from Jamame and Jilib to Saakoow), the two Shabelle regions (Lower and Middle Shabelle) and the Hiran Region with the entire half west of the Shabelle River.

It is going to be very rocky interesting to see how this goes.

A campaign is one thing, but one without even a stabilization program whose importance the previous government had established recognition of in counter-insurgency---and one which seriously debates "arming clans" is a prohibitive and counter-productive strategy by all measure of established evidence and experience.

The "capture porn" preoccupation being fanned is nothing short of distraction from the hollow and bankrupt redudancy of this running "loop."

We have seen this "capture" scene; and it looks just like the one(s) before it that could not sustain a "hold."

It’s the west wish for us to be tribal fiefdoms that are easily divided. It’s simple

[Gubbet]

Saddam,

I spoke to a high placed trusted security source who told me security forces will do their job with or without attention, but that they believe the political class are not authentic in this "campaign." His words?

"it seems like a scheme to appeal for money---money that is not intended to reach us (security forces)."

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Saddam,

I spoke to a high placed trusted security source who told me security forces will do their job with or without attention, but that they believe the political class are not authentic in this "campaign." His words?

"it seems like a scheme to appeal for money---money that is not intended to reach us (security forces)."

Of course bro. Corruption is endemic. I clearly understand. What makes me proud is however is, the security forces in places like Hiiraan liberating themselves instead of relaying on the centre

[Gubbet]

Saddam,

I spoke to a high placed trusted security source who told me security forces will do their job with or without attention, but that they believe the political class are not authentic in this "campaign." His words?

"it seems like a scheme to appeal for money---money that is not intended to reach us (security forces)."

Of course bro. Corruption is endemic. I clearly understand. What makes me proud is however is, the security forces in places like Hiiraan liberating themselves instead of relaying on the centre

My friend, "famine" is even business where the exact amount of foreign donated food stuffs are controversially contested between the President's office and the Prime Minister's office. Providing even life saving necessary water intervention having fought for the contract to dispense that service is a quick money making scheme for some.

In Somalia's security nightmare, you can be sure anything that smells like roses is masking flatulence.

What is going on is there is an entire political class that never expected to win and does not ever want to care about winning again.

Everything is dispensable to gain as much money as possible out of Somalia's fragile foreign aid industrial complex and then parachute out.

Hunger is for sale, thirst is for sale, and certainly, security is for sale.

This is the farce that kept Afghanistan trudging along all those years. This entire "campaign" is nonexistent.

It is a sales pitch and the international community knows it.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Saddam,

I spoke to a high placed trusted security source who told me security forces will do their job with or without attention, but that they believe the political class are not authentic in this "campaign." His words?

"it seems like a scheme to appeal for money---money that is not intended to reach us (security forces)."

Of course bro. Corruption is endemic. I clearly understand. What makes me proud is however is, the security forces in places like Hiiraan liberating themselves instead of relaying on the centre

My friend, "famine" is even business where the exact amount of foreign donated food stuffs are controversially contested between the President's office and the Prime Minister's office. Providing even life saving necessary water intervention having fought for the contract to dispense that service is a quick money making scheme for some.

In Somalia's security nightmare, you can be sure anything that smells like roses is masking flatulence.

What is going on is there is an entire political class that never expected to win and does not ever want to care about winning again.

Everything is dispensable to gain as much money as possible out of Somalia's fragile foreign aid industrial complex and then parachute out.

Hunger is for sale, thirst is for sale, and certainly, security is for sale.

This is the farce that kept Afghanistan trudging along all those years. This entire "campaign" is nonexistent.

It is a sales pitch and the international community knows it.

It’s because you’re Marehan. You know better that’s why the foreigners always egging on us from within. Never apologize for Siad Barre. What came after is worse

[nine]

Gubbet

The writing was on the wall for multiple years. AS leadership can send out orders that will be immediately be implemented in G/Dhexe and across the south with no drama. Bihi, Deni, Guudlaawe, Laftagareen, Madobe and HSM don't have that power. Infact I do not think that any Somali leadership has had such a strong chain of command across qabiil territories since MSB.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

Gubbet

The writing was on the wall for multiple years. AS leadership can send out orders that will be immediately be implemented in G/Dhexe and across the south with no drama. Bihi, Deni, Guudlaawe, Laftagareen, Madobe and HSM don't have that power. Infact I do not think that any Somali leadership has had such a strong chain of command across qabiil territories since MSB.

That’s a historical FACT. Last man to rule a unifed country. Some men dream local, others global

[Gubbet]

Bump.

How many times have Moqokori and Labadulli been captured and recaptured again in the past month?

As the sand shifted in an hourglass
Time stood ever so still ..