https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 5#p5027828
I have been observing this issue for quite sometime, but it has shot up the meter the last weeks... incidentally the more publicity the alleged anti-Shabab campaigns generated.I am afraid if anything changes, it is more predictable Al Shabaab will expand in Galgaduud and Hiiraan. It is mind boggling how outwardly tribalized the current movements are. For example, Al Shabaab's pincer movements around Matabaan and Baxdo are not random movements. It shows both Sacad and Cayr have been gradually moving towards Al Shababization directed towards Cadaado and northern Beled-Weyne. The solution to fighting "Al Shabaab" is reconciliation and incentivizing the "lineage groups" manipulated to join cause with them to abandon them for real possibility of more fair political process.
Sacad has for sometime now been courted in suthwestern Hobyo district as a result of resentment towards Qoorqoor and Saleebaan expansion towards Hobyo. The area between Ceel-buur and Matabaan has seen the group known as "Cayrka koonfureed" (who were never ideologically Ahlu Sunnah like reer Ayaanle) definitively tie their fortunes with Al Shabaab to secure access to grazing movements in Northern Beled-Weyne district just as they secured grazing in Ceel-buur.
It is like an 8 ball with the two circles around Cadaado and Beled-Weyne.
Tribalizing Al Shabaab is the complete opposite to what one should be doing. If you notice in Gedo and Bakool, there is really no incentivized "lineage-groups" that can be pointed out as "Shabaab." There is no "Murusade" or "Duduble" for example because of the work done within for sometime to deincentivize "lineage-groups" arising who can be manipulated by Al Shabaab. It is also in their advantage they are relatively homogeneous or cohesive as political units. This is the opposite in mindbogglingly diverse and fractured political units. Not only is the fight against Al Shabaab on more difficult circumstances, but the response is even the complete opposite of how it should be handled.
When you see sitting members of Parliament from groups now being called "Al Shabaab" clans (Ceel-dheer or Ceel-buur) actively and in stark terms denouncing the fight "against" Al Shabaab as fights "against" their clans, this is a direct outcome of the way those claiming to fight Al Shabaab have terribly prejudiced the fight against Al Shabaab to their own detriment.
I foresee these eventualities.
1. Beled-Weyne town will become like Kismaayo town. Even the outskirts of town which are now contested will become definitive Al Shabaab territory. Only the town will be held as a garrison town reinforced by Ethiopian troops.
2. I believe it is possible Cadaado will fall. It is simply not strategic (for example not located on the border like Beled-Weyne) or capable enough of standing on it's own against Al Shabaab. The pressure will become even more acute the more Sacad fall to Shabaab.
3. I believe both Caabudwaaq and Dhusamareb will become secured by Ethiopian troops who will also attempt to rekindle the Ahlu Sunnah alliance between Balanbale, Xeraale, and Dhusamareb. I believe also this will turn into Caabudwaaq becoming a permanent base for Ethiopia in central Somalia ala Dollow, Gedo.
4. Finally, I believe it is possible Gaalkacyo town will become host to Ethiopian troops. The more Sacad, now motivated by their political resentment towards Saleebaan, become drafted to become as acquiescing as the Ceelbuur "clans," and particularly if and when Cadaado falls, I believe there will be a sudden agreement between Puntland and Ethiopia to garrison Gaalkacyo town as a defensive wall.
Shabaab is not being defeated. Shabaab is going to be contained, but the areas "now" being contested will fall.
And this will occur because the people fighting them now would have severely prejudiced the fight against them to their own detriment.
The argument used for incitement is "Afbarwaaqo" not being named yet a degmo by Qootqoor when 1.) it barely has 7 tin shacks (not an insult I honestly have to say, but satellite observation) and 2.) has no immediate urgency not having been named a degmo all this time including by folks like Xaaf, Guleed, Qaybdiid, even Kimiko from the same juffo and 3.) is not even uncontested with territorial dispute between Rer Hobyo and the Sheekhaal so it is not even clear who it would be named to if it were.
But using this issue, a lineage group highlighted in the group I identified in that post has shown a remarkable and disproportionate need to assert disagreement with Galmudug, even imposing the requirement to fracture and delegitimize Galmudug institutionally---just very curiously right at this particular time.
Watch Afbarwaaqo community of Hobyo very closely and take into consideration the modus operandi of anti-security elements nationally.
