- Non-changing positions
- HSM and his HAGist group (primarily Abgal & Sacad)
- Madoobe and his loyalists
- Southwest State after Laftagaren victory
- Marehan nationally represented by "Gedo Reg"
- Unmoored as in not settled on destination yet
- Non-Sacad HG. Regarding Cayr.; Mahad Salad is unrepresentative; in fact the Cayr situation is unique & longer cycle. Cayr that orbited to Marehan in mid-90's is exactly the Cayr of today; Abgaal/Mudulood is really alien and HG both Sacad/Saleban are political rivals who both ferociously resent ascendent Cayr. The ICU is dead, Ahlu Sunnah is dead, the bitter land clashes with Marehan no longer animate since main issue (Balanbale) has become a settled political conclusion. Abdirahman Abdishakur is quiet, the Cayr leaders r demonstratively considerate and solicitous of Marehan regional leaders, and even the traditional and administrative authorities of Guriceel & Dhusamareb are expressing complimentation. Cayr will come back to Marehan orbit---I say the Marehan orbit because Cayr has been politically unmoored. They will land at the position of MX (against HSM). Cayr is similar to Saleban but different in couple things. While Saleban, not the Cayr, have a peace treaty with Marehan the Saleban do not have the historical close relationship Cayr has had with Marehan nor have they shown the ability to share the same objectives as Cayr has shown.
- Regarding Saleebaan; Saleebaan have no reason to necessarily be against HSM, but their leader has been Qoorqooo who was implicated in Farmajo government. At that time and especially since Rooble, the Sacad have established themselves as the main HG "clan" representative once again in HAG. While both Sacad and Saleebaan resent the threat of Cayr ascendency in HG and while both Cayr and Saleebaan resent Sacad historical political domination, Saleebaan by far and more personally detest a political disposition that already implicates Sacad political support as the "HG." This is why HSM has been heavily, tirelessly, unceasingly courting Saleebaan while having already written off Cayr as inevitable break. HSM and HAG cannot lose Saleebaan. But Saleebaan have Qoorqoor as cherished leader, they have even signed a historical treaty with Marehan---and the little interesting issues of Hobyo council seats and now Harardhere political cannibalism within HG show why if I was a betting man, I would between on Saleebaan getting off the HSM/HAG train ride because of Sacad.
- Evolving, but settled groups
- The NE is a wildcard particularly because of 3 chief reasons name Garowe has been pro-Madobe/anti-Gedo in Jubbaland as a factual statement. While with that position, she had then beek backstabbed and fundamentally disrespected by the HSM/Madooben implication in HAG authority. Even more in that dilemma, the issue of Las Canood has like a lightening bolt to develop uncertainty about even reflection or scale/weight of influence. Garowr will most certainly be as opposed to HAG as Marehan-orbit and Southwest but the question is still out as to how this will express itself and be brought to bear.
- Hawadle +Shabelle linked non-Darod/non-Hirab groups who are not satisfied with having declared for HSM/HAG at first given how they have been rewarded/treated or lack of since. I see see this cleavage widening. Think "Guudlaawe" type will become more HSM/HAG & "Xuud" type will become more against HSM/HAG. Similarly to Garowe, given their historical political disposition vs the alienation/grievance that will only get stronger against HSM/HAG, one sees they will not become hostages to HSMHAG but how their revolt will be expressed will have to be witnessed as it happens.
This clash of equities is between;
NATURAL LEGITIMACY WITH BROAD SPHERES OF INFLUENCE BASED IN THE INTERIOR
vs.
NARROW PROJECTION OF INFLUENCE REFLECTED FOR DEPENDENTS BASED IN COASTAL ZONES
