Postby hanqadh » Wed Mar 09, 2011 4:36 am
AL-shabab is not finished yet unless the Ethiopians keep pushing deeper with the TFG/Ahlu Sunnah all the way to Kismaayo with a much larger force.Al-shabab are over-estimating the strength of the Ethiopian forces, they dont have the large logitistical and air support given by America in 2006 nor do they have massive ground force they unleashed in that same year.They should be standing there ground trying to bog them down they would withdraw if they see a strong defensive stance they dont want a long conflict which could have consequences domestically for them,they are trying to avert a public uprising and at the same time fight on many fronts with LF groups.Ethiopia is using this to further there interests to stay relevant in the Horn and gain access to funds from Europe and America which is waning on behalf of America's war on terror.Another reason is to create further chaos, by supporting these different forces who all want a piece of power there simply replacing old Warlord's with new lackeys vying for leadership long after Al-Shabab is gone, Ahlu-Sunnah,the many regional government entities and the stagnant TFG will be at each others throats.One more reason is to cement relations with groups in Somalia to cripple ONLF,OLF forces in Ethiopia.