Not all is what it seems.
With regards to Janan,
1. Janan has already committed what he is being accused of
2. His defense is he is on the run.
3. More importantly, Janan
fulfills a purpose. Without Janan, none of this would be possible
4. And MOST importantly, the threat of Janan is insurmountably out weighed by the threat of Mohamud Sayid do to the fact Mohamud's Rer Hassan is tremendously more important than any other sngle Marehan sub-clan in the south.
With regards to Mohamud,
1. He is committing this WITHOUT any compulsion or duress ( he is not running from captivity)
2. He is the only leader to put on FATIGUES which is a declaration as an armed combatant
3. He has not committed any crimes like Janan so this is a WARNING while Janan is about PUNISHMENT OR FORGIVENESS
4. Essentially no one disputes Janan's guilt while this WARNING Is to PREVENT Mohamud from committing a crime
5.Mohamud Sayid Adden is the SINGLE ACTIVE existing civil war faction leader in Marehan. Masalle is dead, Isaaq Biixi is dead, Ahmed Warsame just died, and Barre Hiiraale is in retirement. Even Fartaag who was a junior faction leader is sitting this out. Essentially Mohamud is part of a long storyline that hasn't fully been closed shut which can pull all kinds of buried skeletons from the closet.
6. The final point; Mohamud has STATURE as the Chief of an entire group of Marehan from various points in the civil war who have a level of deference and loyalty to him that will astound you. There are an ENTIRE class of Marehan politicians that are presenting quiet opposition because of this reason. These groups are both
- Armed Military Leaders
- Cabaas Talxe, Dhuumaal, etc
- Unarmed Political Leaders
- MP Dalays, MP Alankey, etc
This means Mohamud Sayid Aden issue SHOULD NEVER be allowed to come to violence.
In fact, everything must be done to dissuade Sayid Aden from even being a factor in this conflict.
Giving him a very explicit and dire warning about just the extent of possible consequences is the LEAST that can be done to pressure him to back off.
Finally, Mohamud Sayid Aden needs to retire. Sacad paid off Qeybdiid and gave him a Senate seat to extricate him from central Somalia and Galmudug. That had the effect of politically "exiling" him. Mohamud Sayid Aden's history and role in Marehan for much off the civil war calls for a similar type of political 'exile" for Sayid Aden.
You simply cannot move forward while still being beholden to the interests, characters, and strategies from the darkest periods of the civil war.
- My advice on what to do with Mohamud Sayid Aden
- The gov + Marehan must provide two (2.)CLARIFICATIONS about what is at stake to Mohamud [who may still be stuck in 90's calculations given his civil war history]
- The first clarification requiring public record of Mohamud's acknowledgement is that this is NOT an issue between clans or between factions. This is an issue between a "Government" and it's "Citizens." If he had a misunderstanding---he needs to correct that quickly.
- The second clarification requiring public record of Mohamud's acknowledgement is that in an issue between a "Government" and it's "Citizens," the only legitimate armed presence with recourse for being a combatant is the armed forces of that government sworn to protect it's citizens. Any domestic combatant not sanctioned by this order has taken arms against the Government and has in effect committed TREASON.
- After clarification, Mohamud must be served with a publicly recorded WARNING;
- Taking up arms and putting on military fatigues/camouflage in this situation is a "declaration" to commit TREASON by taking up arms against the Armed Forces of the Somali Federal Republic present in Jubbaland
- If he makes this choice, there's really nothing left. He chose war.
- After the warning, the Gov and Marehan should jointly offer negotiations like Sacad and Hassan Sheekh gov offered Abdi Qaybdeed.
- The offer for negotiations MUST GUARANTEE THE PROMISE OF A RETIREMENT PACKAGE
- The offer for negotiations should also be presented with th understanding that there is ONLY one possible outcome from ONLY two possible choices
- Either he chooses "political retirement"
- Help him settle where he wants and let him enjoy his Retirement Package however he wants.
- This contract is contingent on Mohamud Sayid Aden never having a LOCAL VOICE in Marehan, Gedo, or Jubbaland decisionmaking. He is only to support or help execute the chosen decision. If asked for advice through official inquiry (the procedure for this should have 0 ambiguity and needs be agreed to before signature of contract), he can choose to give advice but beyond that, there should be 0 inteference, role, or voice from him in decisionmaking. Again, he only supports and helps execute the chosen decision.
- Or he chooses "political exile"
- Give him his Retirement Package and Bestow on him a lifetime tenure as one of the Marehan Federal Senators from Jubbaland or some similar national representative role
- It has to be Federal or national and he must be based in Mogadishu and outside Jubbaland and Gedo (i.e. "political exile")
- Similarly, the contract should be contingent on Mohamud Sayid Aden never having a LOCAL VOICE in Marehan, Gedo, or Jubbaland decisionmaking. The terms of this should be exactly as above in the choice for "political retirement"
- When it comes to national or federal decisionmaking, Senators are by circumstances given more space to make the best national choice. Because of this, Mohamud should give a "Gentleman's word" that he will always vote in the best interest of Gedo and Jubbaland State and take great example and advice from the Jubbaland parliament and state government.
- At this step, either we would have a clear declaration of war between Mohamud and the Govt (with the majority of Marehan) or we would have a mutually acceptable resolution to Mohamud and generally closed the chapter on the last main Marehan remnant of the 90's civil war in a way that dignifies both Mohamud and Marehan, as well as the Fed gov. My hope is the latter and for Mohamud to go from this embarrassing situation wearing military fatigues and transforms into an elder statesman for his people, his region, and his nation and their government.
