It appears the Oromo, have now thrown there full weight behind the OPDO, the main party representing the Oromo region in EPRDF. In turn the OPDO has begun to make an alliance with ANDM, the main party representing the Ahmara region.
Both parties are members of the EPRDF, they repersent the two largest ethnic groups in the country. The thinking goes by combining their MPs in parliament, they will be able to outmaneuver the TPLF and name a new Prime minister who will no longer be in the shadows or at the mercy of the TPLF junta.
There are certain new realities that need to be mentioned to show how far things have come in Ethiopia. The OPDO, by openly endorsing some of the grievances of the Oromo masses, appears to be pursing it's own political ambitions outside of the TPLF tutelage. Likewise there some indications the ANDM is doing the same. Before attempting to predict what will happen in Ethiopia and the Ogaden, the following is a list of what I think are current political realities that will shape future events
1.The Oromo diaspora by endorsing the OPDO and by extension the Oromo's on the streets with it's pro unity agenda have now effectively shelved the idea of a break away Oromo republic or succession
2. An alliance of ANDM and OPDO means EPRDF will likely have a new PM in the near future
3. This alliance has effectively thrown the Ethiopian parliament into the opposition, meaning a parliament sanctioned state of Emergency is no longer possible in Ethiopia
4. The TPLF is at a crossroad. Whether to undertake military aggression or seek a political solution that will see it loose power smoothly
A. The likeliest scenario is a new PM who is from Oromo ethnic group with the full support of OPDO/ANDM. This outcome will be favored by international stakeholders. It will mean one Ethiopia. It will lead to the TPLF playing a minority role.
B. The second likeliest scenario is full TPLF onslaught against the current trajectory of the country. This will mean, the TPLF will make an example of the current OPDO leaders, they will instigate large scale ethnic conflicts, they will usurp power from the local state police who appears to be leaning towards the opposition. This will likely lead to mass blood shed on the streets which may throw the country into a civil war.
C. Because of Inna Illay and his Liyu police, which ever of those two scenarios that come to pass will have huge ramifications for the Ogaden region. Scenario A will mean the end of Ina Illay and the Liyu police. Scenario B will mean large scale civil unrest with Liyu police playing an active role in formenting clash between Somalis and the Oromo.
