Ethiopia and Eritrea may go to war 'in weeks'

[Hiiraan boy]

Horn of Africa enemies Ethiopia and Eritrea may return to war over their disputed border in a matter of weeks if there is no major international push to halt them, an influential think-tank has warned.

A 1998-2000 war on the boundary killed 70,000 people and brought untold hardship to two of the world's poorest nations.

Now analysts are warning of a repeat as troops build up ahead of an end-November deadline by an independent boundary commission for Ethiopia and Eritrea to mark out their border.

"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real," wrote the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a report on the growing crisis.

"A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart – more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis."

The ICG urged the United States and the United Nations to flex their muscles "to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated."

Washington sees Ethiopia as its best ally in the region, but ties with Eritrea have deteriorated so much it may put Asmara on its list of terrorism sponsors for backing Somali Islamists.

The United Nations has a peacekeeping force of 1,700 people charged with monitoring a security buffer zone on Eritrea's side of the 1000-km frontier.

"International indifference of mistaken confidence could cost the people of the Horn of Africa dearly," the ICG added.

The think-tank report came after Eritrea accused Ethiopia for the third time in a week of planning an invasion, an allegation Addis Ababa has termed an "absurd" fabrication.

The ICG cited US estimates that Eritrea had 4000 soldiers, supported by artillery and armour, in the "supposedly demilitarised TSZ" as well as 120,000 troops nearby.

Despite an offensive against insurgents in its east, and a foreign mission in Somalia where it is helping the government fight Islamist rebels, Ethiopia also maintains 100,000 troops on its border with Eritrea, the ICG added, quoting US estimates.

"The situation could hardly be more explosive," it said.

The neighbours have been in dispute since the independent boundary body awarded Eritrea the Badme town in a 2002 ruling.

Although it now says it accepts the ruling, Ethiopia is still insisting on dialogue over implementation.

"Eritrea has right on its side on this point but has played its cards very badly," the ICG said, referring to Eritrea's disputes with the United Nations and expulsion of foreign staff.

"Ethiopia has played its hand skilfully. It has used its position as the major power in the region to win US toleration of its intransigence," it added.

"It would not be surprising if Addis Ababa believes an effort in the near future to stage a coup in Asmara and use force against an Eritrean government that has few friends would also be tolerated in Washington."

Both run by former rebel leaders, Ethiopia's 81 million population dwarfs Eritrea's 5 million.

The ICG forecasts that if war breaks out, Ethiopia would seek to take Asmara and Assab port to topple Eritrea's government.

Frustrated by lack of progress, the boundary commission says the nations have until the end of this month to mark the border physically, or it will fix the border on maps and let it stand.

Diplomats worry that date could prove a trigger.

The ICG took a swipe at both nation's authoritarian governments, calling Eritrea "one of the most repressive regimes in Africa" and saying Ethiopia has "no intention to genuinely democratise."

[Shirib]

Hopefully they will. Thats good news for Somalia.

[Luq_Ganane]

Wallahi I hope they have a HUGE war, and there forced to withdraw from Somalia. If and when it breaks out, I think that should be the cue for everybody to at once attack the Tigray and converge to Xamar. Hopefully Eritrea defeats Ethiopia, and Ethiopia desintrigrates, and we solve our problems on our own. Worst case scenario, Ethiopia wins in Eritrea and gets Asmara/Massaw, and also continues to keep Hiiraan/Shabeelaha, creating an empire.

Inshallah Somalia will succeed 8)

[Sadaam_Mariixmaan]

Karma is gonna be a B!tch

What happened to Somalia, will happen to Ethiopia

[Somaliweyn]

It is unlikely that they go at each other as in 1998-2000.

Still, when it happens, I can bet the Northeastern region and the puppet government headed by A.Yusuf will denounce Eritrea, and cheerlead for Ethiopia

[X-unit]

If that happens, I will support both the TFG and the Asmara group to hold talks.

[The_Emperior5]

maxa ka galay laabo gaal uu is dillay

[Somali_4Life]

The noble(eritrea)will humiliate the wicked(ethiopia).

[The_Emperior5]

war wa isku miid both cotpic chrisitain nations

Eritrea is part of Ethiopa

remember Emperor haille sellesie boqorkii boqorada aha

Eritrea is the 14 province of Ethiopia

[Somali_4Life]

[quote="The_Emperior5"]war wa isku miid both cotpic chrisitain nations

Eritrea is part of Ethiopa

remember Emperor haille sellesie boqorkii boqorada aha

Eritrea is the 14 province of Ethiopia[/quote]

Eritrea is 50% muslims,50% christians.They are very respectful nation. What reason do i have to hate them?
While Ethiopia are arrogant,invading our land and killing our people.
You live in the north serving ethiopia then asks me: war wa isku miid.
Ofcourse they are not the same.

[sheldibow]

Do not believe what you read on internet ... Etiopian and Eritarians are tuugo they know each other they are same family ... for example Ethiopian prime minister Mele is brother of Eriterian president so they like each other ... so Somalis muryooleey you are stupit if you are waiting that they fight each other ...

[MJ-Pride]

[quote="Somali_4Life"]The noble(eritrea)will humiliate the wicked(ethiopia).[/quote]
looooool@ Noble Eritrea'? One of the Main reasons that the ICU came to sudden and sad end: Look at this wadaad ku sheeg


Somaliweyn, Ok who got more traitors: Mudolood or Majeerteen? We all know the Government wouldn't stand if it wasnt for the huge support from Mudolood. We are in it together saaxiib ee stop playing the victim card

[guhad122]

This should be an easy win for Eritrea because the Ethiopians troops are too stretched to mount any real offence or defence. One thing I like about this war is that Eritrea can actually attack the Tigrean base of Maqale. While I don’t wish for the deaths of innocent people, but I hope Ethiopia loses this war and collapses. The evil in Africa is the current Tigrean led administration in Addis Ababa.

[galia]

[quote="guhad122"]This should be an easy win for Eritrea because the Ethiopians troops are too stretched to mount any real offence or defence. One thing I like about this war is that Eritrea can actually attack the Tigrean base of Maqale. While I don’t wish for the deaths of innocent people, but I hope Ethiopia loses this war and collapses. The evil in Africa is the current Tigrean led administration in Addis Ababa.[/quote]

[The_Emperior5]

[quote="Somali_4Life"][quote="The_Emperior5"]war wa isku miid both cotpic chrisitain nations

Eritrea is part of Ethiopa

remember Emperor haille sellesie boqorkii boqorada aha

Eritrea is the 14 province of Ethiopia[/quote]

Eritrea is 50% muslims,50% christians.They are very respectful nation. What reason do i have to hate them?
While Ethiopia are arrogant,invading our land and killing our people.
You live in the north serving ethiopia then asks me: war wa isku miid.
Ofcourse they are not the same.[/quote]


noo Ethiopia was invited

Ethiopia 65 procent muslim

oromo are 40 milion and they 88 procent muslim ma fahantay

the axumite kingdom was in Eritrea sxb ma fahantay

dadkanii wa isku miid Ahmed iebrahien al ghazi fought axumite kingdom in ERITRREA