Head of Kismayo is from Hargeisa

[guhad122]

James;
You are very right on this! I have been saying this for few months now that Ethiopian troops in Somalia are actually trapped and are trying a way out. I heard that it has been two months since the Ethiopians troops in Muqdisho received any supplies.

The troops in Baydhabo can't send enforment to the ones in Muqdisho and vice versa. The troops in Beled-Weyne are having hard time reaching any safe place because first they need to go through the Nus-Dariiqa and they know that they will get ambushed. After that, the ONLF fighters will take it from there and unfortunately for them, things won't get any better.

I just hope that the forcefully conscripted Ethiopians, who are mainly Guraaga and Oromo, follow the footseps of the already surrendered compatriots and peacefully give themselves to the freedom fighters.

[James Dahl]

James;
You are very right on this! I have been saying this for few months now that Ethiopian troops in Somalia are actually trapped and are trying a way out. I heard that it has been two months since the Ethiopians troops in Muqdisho received any supplies.

The troops in Baydhabo can't send enforment to the ones in Muqdisho and vice versa. The troops in Beled-Weyne are having hard time reaching any safe place because first they need to go through the Nus-Dariiqa and they know that they will get ambushed. After that, the ONLF fighters will take it from there and unfortunately for them, things won't get any better.

I just hope that the forcefully conscripted Ethiopians, who are mainly Guraaga and Oromo, follow the footseps of the already surrendered compatriots and peacefully give themselves to the freedom fighters.

Well you see that's another part of the problem for Ethiopia. They aren't conscripts, but rather drawn from the pro-Meles faction of the Oromo and Gurage elite. The Oromo sellout elites are all that's holding Ethiopia together, as the Oromo are the most powerful group in Ethiopia and they're the only ones who keep the OLF in check. If they flip sides and start supporting the OLF then that's it, Ethiopia falls.

[gurey25]

I think you are too optimistic James,
the troops in somalia do not exceed 20,000 while Melez has an army of around 300,000.

[makumba59]

If they flip sides and start supporting the OLF then that's it, Ethiopia falls.
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"IF" is conditional. Any other plan that doesnt involve What the Oromo might, shall, should or would..?

[James Dahl]

I think you are too optimistic James,
the troops in somalia do not exceed 20,000 while Melez has an army of around 300,000.

There's a difference between how large a country's army is, and it's ability to deploy and supply that army.
If there wasn't, China would have taken over Taiwan 50 years ago.

The USA has a million man army, and the biggest economy in the whole world, and having 300,000 troops in Afghanistan and Iraq is an enormous burden that has cost an absurd amount of money. Ethiopia has an economy several hundred times smaller than the USA, and yet has 1/10th as many soldiers in Somalia, and comparatively speaking is much more of a drain on Ethiopia than the USA's occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is to the USA.

Even though Ethiopia has an army many times the size of the force it has in Somalia, deploying and supplying 20,000 troops is actually beyond the long-term capability of Ethiopia, and it is bankrupting them.

If they flip sides and start supporting the OLF then that's it, Ethiopia falls.
_______________________________________________________________________________


"IF" is conditional. Any other plan that doesnt involve What the Oromo might, shall, should or would..?

What do you mean by plan? You mean defeating Ethiopia? You don't need to destroy a nation to defeat them on your own territory. I'm speaking of Ethiopia's vulnerability and weakness at the moment, which is caused by a number of factors.

[gurey25]

You are right the expense of the somalia invasion is beyond thier means, but
all im saying is that the more experienced and better armed divisions are not in somalia...

[James Dahl]

You are right the expense of the somalia invasion is beyond thier means, but
all im saying is that the more experienced and better armed divisions are not in somalia...

So they move those better armed and experienced divisions to Somalia, and Eritrea invades Badme and starts marching on Aksum, then what?
Not to mention the cost of moving yet more divisions when Ethiopia is already broke.

[gurey25]

They cannot move those divisions, you see thats thier weakness.
As long as eritrea exists the REAL ethiopian army will be deployed in the north and we will never meet it.
all that it can spare are second rate units, and these second rate units have been capable of invading and holding somali territory for this long...

it only started to suffer when the alshabab started to learn how to fight a proper guerilla war.

[James Dahl]

They cannot move those divisions, you see thats thier weakness.
As long as eritrea exists the REAL ethiopian army will be deployed in the north and we will never meet it.
all that it can spare are second rate units, and these second rate units have been capable of invading and holding somali territory for this long...

it only started to suffer when the alshabab started to learn how to fight a proper guerilla war.

It's not just Eritrea either, Sudan has claims on Gumuz territory.
You're overestimating the quality of the Ethiopian army and underestimating the quality of the forces they sent into Somalia, as well as the strategic failure of Ethiopia.
The current guerrilla war was ALWAYS the plan. Guerrilla wars always take forever to establish, but once they're in place they are almost impossible to dislodge or destroy. Guerrillas have deep roots. There are South American guerrillas that have been fighting their government and the USA with no assistance from anyone or any popular support even, for 40 years.
Meles has lost a lot more soldiers in Somalia than people think.

Meles' plan was to invade and prop up the TFG, train a TFG army, and leave in a few months. This has not happened, but he didn't have a plan B. He's screwed himself basically.

[Son_of_Somalia]

Guys we have to bear in mind that mele's does not want the troops in somalia to return to Ethiopia.

They have learned many bad things in somalia from the somalis such as road blocks, robbery etc.

Once they enter ethiopia they are more likely to rebel and start killing their Tigray officers.

If Obama wins than definitely meles can be sure that the game in somalia is over as their won't be any cash for him to occupy somalia.

He has failed and so has he's colonisation ambitions ever since the puppet TFG was destroyed.

Once the flame starts in the North between Eritrea and meles than we could begin to see a huge shift as the somali liberation forces start to follow ethiopian troops leaving somalia well inside into Ethiopia itself, where we can regroup with ONLF forces and OLF forces and from their race towards Addis Abba before Eritrea gets their.

[yawle]

It is no surprises there. There are a lot of Isaaq seef-la-boods in the alshabaab ranks. The head of Al-Shabaab is also from Burco. And now you have another one assigned to a top rank to lead the Kismaayo Islamic administration.

The simple fact is, Isaaq seef-la-boods are fighting a true jihad while most others are fighting clan-wars disguised as jihad. Also Isaaqs are known to be just and fair rulers who put the weak and the mighty on the same scale of judgement when it comes to rule of law.

I bet there will be no more clanwars in Kismaayo from now on. The diplomacy of the Isaaq men will win over those disgruntled warlords to join the new path to progress.

[GENERAL_SNM]

It is no surprises there. There are a lot of Isaaq seef-la-boods in the alshabaab ranks. The head of Al-Shabaab is also from Burco. And now you have another one assigned to a top rank to lead the Kismaayo Islamic administration.

The simple fact is, Isaaq seef-la-boods are fighting a true jihad while most others are fighting clan-wars disguised as jihad. Also Isaaqs are known to be just and fair rulers who put the weak and the mighty on the same scale of judgement when it comes to rule of law.

I bet there will be no more clanwars in Kismaayo from now on. The diplomacy of the Isaaq men will win over those disgruntled warlords to join the new path to progress.

Gives him the Garxajis sign of approval

[makumba59]

[quote="yawle"]It is no surprises there. There are a lot of Isaaq seef-la-boods in the alshabaab ranks. The head of Al-Shabaab is also from Burco. And now you have another one assigned to a top rank to lead the Kismaayo Islamic administration.

The simple fact is, Isaaq seef-la-boods are fighting a true jihad while most others are fighting clan-wars disguised as jihad. Also Isaaqs are known to be just and fair rulers who put the weak and the mighty on the same scale of judgement when it comes to rule of law.

I bet there will be no more clanwars in Kismaayo from now on. The diplomacy of the Isaaq men will win over those disgruntled warlords to join the new path to progress.[/quote]

What a load of old wive's tale.


Aint no such thing as a true Jihad, as people are so small minded, pety and driven by hate, jealousy and envie. So whats ture Jihad to you aint the same for the next farax.

Remind me why that reer sugule old man in Burco was sent to Madheera during the 6 months rein of the Mahakim?

Isaqs are no different than the average walaweyn.