My Prediction: Dr Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmed is next PM.

[The`Republic]

He is Marehan/rer Ugaas Shermarke and the abti of Murax.

At this stage, I am confident enough to say this is my prediction.

By choosing Dr Abdiwali, Villa Somalia had indicated couplr things;

1. They are ready to embrace a strong and well educated Prime Minister who will be very central in decision making and administrative leadership (Abdiwali has PhD in Economics and served in many development banks, he is a top executive at Islamic Development Bank and was until recently posted in Saudi Arabia

2. They believe strongly in the continuing power and authority of the Marehan clan even if Kenyan military presence has temporarily provided an unnatural space and they are bent on continuing the links until the moment natural equilibrium is righted in the far south to harmonize the stability of civil war Somalia

3. They want a man who can have influence and leverage in the Marehan of Jubbaland. Saacid did not have that leverage and was from Caabudwaaq and a subclan which has virtually no influence in Gedo. Dr Abdiwali is from BAARDHEERE and he comes from one of the strongest and most influential subclans in Gedo. To put this into perspective, both Fartaag who is Vice President of Jubbaland and Mohamed Ugas Hashi are both Marehan/rer Ugas Shermarke and have used their leverage in Gedo to divide Marehan so some can support Ahmed Madoobe. Dr Abdiwali is a man who can influence even them let alone their supporters.


So you have heard it here first my friends. Therr is nothing about him on any page. None of the so-called "insiders"(Sahal, etc) have even ever mentioned him but this man is our next PM and Hassan Sheikh will name him soon.

[Sheikh Mustafa]

One thing you and I and the entire Somali population agree on.

Our Next Prime Minister is Mareexaan. He could be a devil from hell and we don't worry about him as long as he is mareexaan. He won't bring ethiopia to Muqdisho. That is all we care now.

The Worst crime that a Mareexaan PM will do is Landcruiser lugu gato lacagto dawlada which will be fair enough to deal with.

[Adali]

[anzeloti]

Sounds good too me

[Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE]

Disgusting

[original dervish]

He could be David Copperfield for all I care.....he won`t be able to conjure up Kismayo for Hag.

[sahal80]

I'm getting closer to find out that the next pm is not from the dam jadid circles, had little enough today about doodishe.

Now let us analyse this

As there is no dam jadid pm I don't think the next pm will be from gedo for a political balances and strategies

The gedo pm will cause a power struggle between the president and the speaker, the speakers sound to think they have al wisaya/gardianship over the gedo pms and this will weaken the presidents position

It was jawari who allured saacid but this newly formed bloc was quickly destroyed by dam jadid and now jawari is so embarassed and is kinda of surrender, it will be sharif hassan who will pick some of the D&M ministers in the next cabinet, jawari has now big opposation as adan madobe and sharif hassan have gone to baydhabo and he is trying to follow them soon!

Remember the old days when sharif hassan has made the romoving of farmajo as one of his conditions in the kampla agreement so as far I'm aware of the politics inside the govt I don't hassan sheekh will appoint another gedo pm as he had saacid experience
http://www.keydmedia.net/en/news/articl ... s_approved
The next pm will come from a region that doesn't have or represent great interests

As for having jubba cards, I believe that region is over-there are stalemate in other regions- and now there are contacts to sign for a new turkish company to rebuild and manage the kismayo port where the company, the admistration and the govt are sharing the revenue

Its expected that the kismayo ports revenue to get massive after the reconstruction...rebuilding the ports will make somalia less dependent on foreign aid

This will be a new agreement not the addis agreement wich states that the govt to control the ports after 6 months.

The same thing will be happen to the airport.

[The`Republic]

It's not about what you "think". You can think the moon is made of cheese.

The next PM is Dr Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmed. I'll stick with that.

P.s. You are right he is not Dam Jadiid and has strong international support. Notice the Yussur issue and the fact this guy has worked for international development banks.

P.s.s I wonder if Murax heard

[Faranacab]

Just for the record, ....

Saacid is not like Farmaajo (a nice conciliatory guy but naive and miskiin), he is cutthroat businessman who was in Africa all this time and watched with the same eyes we watched the events which transpired in MR lands. He is a man who knows his people and he is a man we can be confident knows what is required of him in this position in this time.

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=315091

Yesterday.

By choosing Dr Abdiwali, Villa Somalia had indicated couplr things;

3. They want a man who can have influence and leverage in the Marehan of Jubbaland. Saacid did not have that leverage and was from Caabudwaaq and a subclan which has virtually no influence in Gedo. Dr Abdiwali is from BAARDHEERE and he comes from one of the strongest and most influential subclans in Gedo.

Today.

[original dervish]

Cut the emotional nigger some slack.
Yesterday he was so far up the Hagite ass...he was speaking from inside their mouths.

With the EU telling Hassan et al to do one.....they`re past their high point...from here on in it`s all the way back to cannibalism.

[Faranacab]

[sahal80]

Notice my analysis are there just to expose the govts/dam jadids policies not with or againist any group.


Voltage

All I see is that your "predicting" this man to be the next pm, right? Then non of us can claim a monopoly on truth

Remember not was long far when you posted about saacids imminent victory while I gave him to get no more than 100 votes and indeed he got 65 votes!

My hypothesis is based on my knowledge in knowing the structural problems that the regime was suffering from lately

You have to ask yourself first why saacid was ousted after the addis agreement and after the jubba conference in xamar?

Its not farfetched to say that the regime had a different ally and now gedo is swimming againist the tide/3aks el tayar

The regimes agenda towards gedo is to implement the integration and that jubba will be made a whole under the current adminstration, no more than that, so, what has this got to do with a pm from baardheere as the job was done?

Infact, he will be 3aks el seir/againist the march

The other point is to weaken the speaker, I have made a lot of posts about the gedo-bay bloc inside the govt wich was againist the jubba agreement how its reasonable for the regime to appoint again a gedo pm in this time they are making oil and ports contracts and in need to implement the agreement?

sharif hassans role in ousting saacid in order to weaken jawari and his visit to baydhabo is foreshadowing what will happen later

Dam jadid will have a weak speaker and a baseless PM that will implement their agenda

Good analysis in this article
http://www.keydmedia.net/article/articl ... a_Somalia/

[original dervish]

Sciid outlived his usefulness as soon as the Kismayo file was closed.
Hag now have other fish to fry.

It will be interesting to see who they appoint as it will indicate their agenda for the next 12 months.

Sahal....keep up the good work.

[MarsinQorahay]

don't you notice that the ilkoyars has been thrown in the garbage?

[The`Republic]

Original Dervish-

Someone penned an anti-Cali Khaliif Galaydh topic lambasting your alleged clan, yet you never commented once for 5 pages. Next an anti Saado Cali topic disgracing her role for supporting Khaatumo, you didn't show up. There was the Taleex war whose topic tool 10 pages.

These and more were all in the Politics section the week prior, yet you displayed no interest defending or showing interest in the people you supposedly claim.

You may be a rabid gonorrhea driven street whore, but Dhulbahante you are not.

Franacab-

Saafid abdicated his duties as PM, but on Kismaayo he did what was required. The Kenyans were there and a puppet by the name of Fartaag. Nothing about that is relevant to me knowing who will be PM.

Sahal-

I just said "prediction" to reserve a small margin of error, but really it is a slam dunk. I am very sure about this guy.

Also, I didn't "predict" Saacid would win Parliament. In fact I always said we will see what happens. If I said about potential numbrr of supporters, it was not prediction but posting news and analysis from others in the form of news brought.

I am not "analyzing" who will be PM. I know who will be PM.

Induction and deduction.