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Interesting analysis. I think #2 is big win for president Farmaajo. If you remember his speech before he went to Samareeb for shirkii 3xaad, any agreements would be subject to the parliament's approval. With the appointment of the new prime minister, I'm curious about madasha's next move; are they gonna continue on setting up the parallel government they threatened about?having thought about it, i think no one really won. if i was to give an edge to anyone it would be farmaajo. because of these three major things.
1) every federal state will atleast have 2 different cities where mp's can be elected from.
2) this deal will go back to the Parliament for approval
3) somaliland mps will be elected in mogadishu
number 1 is really only about jubbaland and puntland. if you read the words from the statements carefully it says the qabils can choice either one of the two places. for jubbaland one will be kismaayo and the other garbahareey which means a lot of clans will take their seat there.
puntland it gets very muddy because it could be laascaanond and garowe or garowe and bosaso, however both warsangali and dhulbahante can argue that most of their land is controlled by somaliland and thus their seats taken to xamar. so they have a card to play there.
where the federal states won is in the senate parliament which means the likes of fartag will be back.
but what do i expect, i fully expect the parliament to either alter the deal or reject it.
parallel government was always a big joke look at when qoor qoor got first elected there where suppose to be 3 presidents and within 2 weeks all that was resolved.Interesting analysis. I think #2 is big win for president Farmaajo. If you remember his speech before he went to Samareeb for shirkii 3xaad, any agreements would be subject to the parliament's approval. With the appointment of the new prime minister, I'm curious about madasha's next move; are they gonna continue on setting up the parallel government they threatened about?having thought about it, i think no one really won. if i was to give an edge to anyone it would be farmaajo. because of these three major things.
1) every federal state will atleast have 2 different cities where mp's can be elected from.
2) this deal will go back to the Parliament for approval
3) somaliland mps will be elected in mogadishu
number 1 is really only about jubbaland and puntland. if you read the words from the statements carefully it says the qabils can choice either one of the two places. for jubbaland one will be kismaayo and the other garbahareey which means a lot of clans will take their seat there.
puntland it gets very muddy because it could be laascaanond and garowe or garowe and bosaso, however both warsangali and dhulbahante can argue that most of their land is controlled by somaliland and thus their seats taken to xamar. so they have a card to play there.
where the federal states won is in the senate parliament which means the likes of fartag will be back.
but what do i expect, i fully expect the parliament to either alter the deal or reject it.
for madoobe this is a complete loss for him. upper house has been made null by the speaker when he gave his job to the federal states. these discussions where suppose to be between the government and both parliament and the upper Parliament was suppose to represent the federal states.It's good that there will be two different cities where mps will be chosen from in each FMS. I also like that the somaliland mps will be elected from xamar and the deal going to parliament will give the FGS an opportunity to give this deal a mandate.
The international community will definitely view this as a consensus agreement and will know that the current administration is willing to compromise for the greater good and stability of the nation. All in all this has been interesting but there is still a lot of backroom decisions to be made before this is on the President's desk for approval.
Doesn't that contradict the agreement that states mps should be elected from 2 different cities of a region?I also like that the somaliland mps will be elected from xamar and the deal going to parliament will give the FGS an opportunity to give this deal a mandate.
What are president Farmaajo's chances of an extension?but now that farmaajo named a PM i think it is less likely that the Parliament will reject the agreement , because if the deal is rejected then another rounds of conferences will take place and the PM will be involved which President Farmaajo does not want.
Elaborate Fahad's possible motive(s) for killing it.Fahad will probably kill this deal in Parliament, a big waste of time.
He seems to support a Centralist style, just check out how he bought the Parliament.Elaborate Fahad's possible motive(s) for killing it.Fahad will probably kill this deal in Parliament, a big waste of time.
Is this how someone with a Centralist style usually behaves?He seems to support a Centralist style, just check out how he bought the Parliament.
Fahad is like a shadow dictator more than a centralist now that I think about itIs this how someone with a Centralist style usually behaves?He seems to support a Centralist style, just check out how he bought the Parliament.
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