Al-Shabaab Plans New Ramadan Offensive
Despite the failure of last year’s Ramadan offensive and a recent lull in fighting, militant Islamist group al-Shabaab is sending new troops to Mogadishu for another offensive during the Muslim holy month, which begins August 1.
As many as 2,000 troops could flood the city in an attempt to regain ground lost this year to government forces and the African Union peacekeeping force (known as AMISOM), although top al-Shabaab officials gave Somalia Report conflicting figures.
“We have not attacked in the past few months since we were busy within,” Sheikh Mukhtar Robow (Abu Mansoor), former al-Shabaab spokesman and now military commander, told Somalia Report, possibly referring to internal divisions within the group.
“But we are going to give the infidels and the non-believers a true taste of Jihad come the holy blessed month of Ramadan,” he added by telephone from the insurgent stronghold of Baidoa.
An investigation by Somalia Report found that al-Shabaab has already deployed 200 young men fresh from training in the Gedo region, with many of them tasked with carrying out suicide attacks in the government-controlled regions of Mogadishu.
Recruitment drive bears fruit
There have been reports of hundreds of new fighters graduating from training camps in the last few months, and as usual much of the fresh blood is due to face the experienced Ugandan and Burundian troops in the capital.
Abu Mansoor said 1,800 new fighters had been forcibly recruited since March and taken to training camps in Kismayo, Afgoye, Gedo and Baidoa. While the group has been suffering a funding crisis, the young Jihadists have been promised a monthly salary of $250 and the chance to go straight to heaven by martyring themselves during Ramadan.
However, another al-Shabaab commander told Somalia Report the number of fresh troops was higher.
“We managed to recruit 2000 new Mujahideen, who are going to continue the assault," said Abu Ali, a commander based in Elasha Biyaha, on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
He said the youth will be stationed in government-held areas and shall attack those who have denied al-Shabaab “a peaceful Islamic state”.
Abu Mansoor also called on other Somali youth to use the holy month to join their battle and take on the African Union.
“They brought a breed of hatred and divided us, and now they want to rule us again, but let me tell you: we rule by the gun and the knife,” he said.
Yahya Yunis, a former al-Shabaab fighter now in the government-administered side of the capital, said the insurgents would be ruthless and inventive in their attempts to gain back territory in Mogadishu.
“They have no respect for religion, life or personality and they may attack in unfamiliar patterns,” he told Somalia Report.
AMISOM braced for battle
AMISOM Spokesman Major Paddy Ankunda, speaking from the Halane military base in Mogadishu, told Somalia Report the peacekeeping forces were aware of the plans and called on Somalis to be vigilant for bomb attacks.
“We know they can attack and we cannot doubt their capability: they have attacked on various occasions and we have incurred losses, but rest assured this time there shall be no mistakes,” Ankunda told Somalia Report.
“They have reduced their tempo and cannot attack like before,” he added. “We have pushed them deeper into the outskirts of Mogadishu and we are on the alert.”
AMISOM forces have been a key target of bomb attacks in the past, and young al-Shabaab fighters are taught that killing an AU soldier is a “free ticket” to paradise. Most of the attacks are aimed at strategic bases, such as Adden Ade International Airport, Mogadishu’s seaport, and the presidential palace.
Civilian casualties could be high
Should fighting prove fierce, there could be significant civilian casualties. Tens of thousands of Somalis have fled their villages, seeking aid in face of a devastating drought, and set up makeshift camps across the city.
Shelling, stray bullets and suicide attacks often claim civilian lives, and with so many living in tents that offer little protection, collateral damage is inevitable.
