Would you support the balkanisation of Somalia?

[UlteriorMotive]

Either in the short term or even permanantly?

I just don't see a way out of this 20+ yr deadlock and was wondering whether dismantling Somalia is a possible solution.

Waving this at 1 July meetings and clan parties whilst your actions are anything but patriotic is not going to bring back the Somali state.

If anything we are more divided than ever and everyone is scheming for dominance.

So i propose give SLand full independence horta (subject to awdal and SSC issues being resolved) and the rest of the Somali regions re-form as maybe 5 states with elelcted bodies and a governor with no foreign policy/resource signing powers similar to Scotland http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_a ... ed_matters. Suspend the TFG and hold a big conference to discuss the way forward after 5 years or so.

Benefits:

1) We would live harmoniously next to each other.

2) We are not burdened with the inept TFG which is imposed on us and which answers to foreigners. Grassroots initiatives are always more inclusive and accountable.

3) It would give Xamar some breathing space as the spoils of government would not be fought over there.

4) It would encourage other regions to become more self-reliant and to learn local governance.

[qoraxeey]

[UlteriorMotive]

Waryaa qoraxeey read it first. Don't just roll your eyes.

What don't you agree with and why?

[qoraxeey]

somaliweyne all day

[fighter]

Somaliweyn is only valid when everyone agrees to it

You can't force it down ppls throats

How do you force somaliweyn to the youth of nfd, ogaden and somaliland to embrace it when they never experienced life under the blue flag??

Secondly, its selfish to ask other regions to become one nation when there r problems in other regions.

[UlteriorMotive]

Thank you fighter.

Although ideally we want the resurrection of the Somali Republic...if nothing is happening to bring that about what should we do?

[Jaidi]

Somaliweyne doesn't exist ,stop using it as an excuse to justify region's underdevelopment. The TFG isn't impeding in anyones way, and everyone has been supporting their own regions for the past 20 years. There is a ceiling to this, and alas that is why you witness the state Somali regions are in today. What exactly are we disbanding since it is agreed the TFG only exists in principle? So basically the proposal is redirecting the $$ the intl community is spending towards regions? That will benefit the few that are better established but it'll hardly drastically change everyones fortunes. You have the entire continent as a case study for the limits of what foreign aid can do. Balkanization has already been actively happening for a while, formalizing it won't really change any of the facts on the ground. This is besides the fact the same source of the $$( the intl community) will never agree to something as ridiculous as splitting foreign aid and policy around 50 different regions. The reason that federalism and a role of a united govt exists in the world today isn't sentimental. The benefits are obvious in both economic and foreign policy clout. That is why our neighbours have fought tooth and nail to keep relatively poor (Somali) regions as part of their own. Yet here we are advocating countless fiefdoms as the way out. Farfetched.

[fighter]

Thank you fighter.

Although ideally we want the resurrection of the Somali Republic...if nothing is happening to bring that about what should we do?

Divide it to 3, Somaliland Puntland and south central Somalia.

Open up negotiations if they want a union like the UK, if not, make separate. Independent states

[UlteriorMotive]

Somaliweyne doesn't exist ,stop using it as an excuse to justify region's underdevelopment. The TFG isn't impeding in anyones way, and everyone has been supporting their own regions for the past 20 years.

Not really. We still cling on to it and the evidence is 20+ conferences to reclaim it which could've been better spent on working on different regions. The TFG is an obstacle because it is not directly elected by Somalis and so loot all the money which comes their way. A regional mamul would represent that regions instrests and it is easier to loot money from the tfg than regional projects.

There is a ceiling to this, and alas that is why you witness the state Somali regions are in today. What exactly are we disbanding since it is agreed the TFG only exists in principle? So basically the proposal is redirecting the $$ the intl community is spending towards regions? That will benefit the few that are better established but it'll hardly drastically change everyones fortunes.

We are disbanding the tfg because having them brings no tangible benefits and artificically keeping the tfg afloat on the back of foreigners hasn't helped Somalis for the past decade. Lives on the ground haven't seen any improvement. Might as well let nature take its course.

You have the entire continent as a case study for the limits of what foreign aid can do. Balkanization has already been actively happening for a while, formalizing it won't really change any of the facts on the ground. This is besides the fact the same source of the $$( the intl community) will never agree to something as ridiculous as splitting foreign aid and policy around 50 different regions.

I'm anti foreign aid which creates basket cases everywhere it goes. Also, having a jubbaland, a central state, puntland etc would bring an important change on the ground: stability.

Furrthermore, any aid only needs to be split 5 ways not 50.

The reason that federalism and a role of a united govt exists in the world today isn't sentimental. The benefits are obvious in both economic and foreign policy clout. That is why our neighbours have fought tooth and nail to keep relatively poor (Somali) regions as part of their own. Yet here we are advocating countless fiefdoms as the way out. Farfetched.

Yes ideally we would revert back to a united govt after a short while. Clan enclaves are not realistic for the longterm but I'm just wondering out loud as to possible solutions to the current stalemate.

[James Dahl]

I support a UAE type situation where Somalia is divided into clan based cantons with the head of the clan as the head of state and then an elected house of representatives.

The head of the clan can then veto decisions that would be bad for the clan, and since the canton contains just his clan, that means he would veto any bad decisions for the canton.

The cantons then have one electoral college elector and the president is elected via the electoral college (each canton sends one delegate) once every 4 years.

[SahanGalbeed]

Local governance ? feeding ourselves ? we've been doing it for 20 FUKIN years , why all of sudden should we settle back for any type of union with Somalia no matter loose it is ? out of love and kindness ?

[Jaidi]

I agree the TFG should be left on its own and the money spent on it is a drain. But you realize the money spent on allowing it to survive is by definition foreign aid. The TFG doesn't survive on regional revenues, it survives on international community aid. Allocating this money to regions will have marginal benefit but this benefit has a ceiling as does all aid.

However that is not what the balkanization model follows. These regions are being created with respect to clan lines as the foremost consideration. In areas where it has overstepped clan lines it has caused conflict. There is nothing sustainable associated with the latter model. Economically, the potential for real development along these lines is minimal. Just look at ports which provide one of the few sources of real outside revenue. You already have numerous ports trying to do the same thing, competing for the the same market. The outside world could care less about your region and will go wherever the tariffs are the lowest. The same follows in numerous other areas of trade, investment. This will help outsiders, but will do little for development at home. You have zero sway over your territorial integrity or in trade negotiatons as a clan enclave. If the whole point of this is to help rebuild Somali regions this model won't do much for it. This is without mentioning that there will be people with completley divergent agendas like AlShabaab. I do not believe alShabaab will be evaporated into thin air by foreign military like some believe but thats another story.

The real energy should be focused around disbanding the TFG as it exists today and fixing the model of govt. A much weaker central govt, much less MPS, much less ministers, and strong ( fewer) regions with defined areas of control, are things I can agree with. But let's remember this is not reflective of what's happening on the ground at all, and will not happen by getting rid of the TFG and not replacing it.

[Jaidi]

Local governance ? feeding ourselves ? we've been doing it for 20 FUKIN years , why all of sudden should we settle back for any type of union with Somalia no matter loose it is ? out of love and kindness ?

I agree But your quarrel is not with Somalis it is with the I.C....its not a nonexistent Somalia that will grant you recognition.

[SahanGalbeed]

Local governance ? feeding ourselves ? we've been doing it for 20 FUKIN years , why all of sudden should we settle back for any type of union with Somalia no matter loose it is ? out of love and kindness ?

I agree But your quarrel is not with Somalis it is with the I.C....its not a nonexistent Somalia that will grant you recognition.

true .

[accident]

All these ideas would start an even bigger "scramble for land" clan wars. I suggest a culling of the Somali population. A certain percentage, relative to their population size, of every clan should be killed.