They went on the airwaves, land waves, thry were on tv and radio, their meetings took Mogadishu meeting places by storm and over a 110 Parliamentarians signed the motion to put the bill up for vote. The Speaker even put it into th schedule since it passed the hurdle of required number of voters.
The PM's office was shocked by the speedn which the motion was scheduled for vote. But he didn't go on the airwaves, he didn't plan public protests--things he learned from Farmaajo's failure I think.
He played politics. His office and his political allies in Parliament started a campaign that I think will be only fully be understood some other time and recognized for excellent political gamesmanship.
Today, just a week later, over 60 members of the original signers including Dalxa of Shabelle, Adan Madoobe of Bay, Mohamed Abdi Yusuf of Puntland, and Fowsia of Bay (the right hand of Sharif Hassan, original co-sponser) have joined others who individually renounced their signature and praised PM Saacid for his work and promised to work with him.
I was really struck by how Xildhibaan Abdillahi Qorax (Marehan/rer Hersi Dini), PhD holder and former head of UN OCHA for Somalia and one of the most educated people in the parliament and a huge ally of the PM...was sitting comfortably in the middle while they renounced their votes one by one.
Saacid will not be facing a routine or a "just because" vote of confidence anytime soon after this and he defeats this one with a huge political victory with significant momentum to capitalize on. For a PM to go past a vote of confidence is likea President to go past an election.
Saaciid has huge opportunities to get to know Parliament really well now and build a core group of allies who drive his agenda forward. In turn those allies serve as a link between the executive and legislative branches so if they have a good relationship with the PM the government stays stable for a long time to come.
Also Saacid has the opportunity to take advantage of the coalition's break up and making a political example of the vote leaders. Somalis hate losers and learn from them. Bar them from government meetings with Parliament, do not invite them to Executive chamber events, celebrations, or travels. Put pressure through your allies strength in parliament to bar those leaders from chairing committees. Make sure you set a political example for any insurrection and show the era of transitional bruhaha is over.
For every action there is a reaction. Next time anyone wants to be an unnecessary political coup leader, give them risks they have to put into the calculation!
At this stage, it should no longer be about this failed vote of confidence but about how to prevent the next. He has a lot of things in his favor for the foreseeable future.
