positive shift in the ethiopian attitude towards somalia

[sahal80]

Remember this

Shows that hassan sheekh has some personification of power and I guess ethiopia at the end will respect us more and stay away from our internal affaires if she wants to treat her the same way. This ambiguous position of hassan sheekh works for him in many ways and in every side.
Sahal80

What I like in this govt is that they excercise al taqiya(dissimulation)

What defines a mature politicians is the significant diplomatic success that they could achieve unlike of these who are sitting on their lazy asses.

Al siyaasa fan al tamkin(politics is the art of overcoming)

This ethiopian change of attitude is merely circumstantial and much related with the geopolitical shifts in the whole region.

Looks like they are adopting a new policy towards somalia the same policy they had towards sudan, this means ethiopia will be a mediator or that the govt is securing the ethiopian endorsement of its positions on the reconciliation and forming local administrations.

In this regard, news are saying ahmed madoobe is on his way to ethiopia.

A secret govt delegation lead by farah abdulqadir have been visiting ethiopia days ago.

[Khalid Ali]

The Ethiopians know that they do not want to lose Somalia to Egypt so they want to meet hassan and the SFG half way we do not know what kind of promises they made to madoobe but i am certain sahal , the ethiopians will never officially support Jubbaland. So they want to stay very neutral at the same time have better relations with Mogadishu. They are not fundamentally against Jubbaland but the timing for them to support madoobe is just not right. Ethiopia still has influence in Somalia with its troops there but this is diminishing since the SFG is gaining more momentum international support and also its getting more support and with in the country as it moves into different parts of the region.

[BigBreak]

but ethiopia has a stronger relationship with somaliland, de facto they treat us as a country and are virtually in a security pact with somaliland which such news was crowned off by pm hailemariam's speech defending somaliland 'to the hilt'

[sahal80]

The Ethiopians know that they do not want to lose Somalia to Egypt so they want to meet hassan and the SFG half way we do not know what kind of promises they made to madoobe but i am certain sahal , the ethiopians will never officially support Jubbaland. So they want to stay very neutral at the same time have better relations with Mogadishu. They are not fundamentally against Jubbaland but the timing for them to support madoobe is just not right. Ethiopia still has influence in Somalia with its troops there but this is diminishing since the SFG is gaining more momentum international support and also its getting more support and with in the country as it moves into different parts of the region.

I agree with you.

[sahal80]

but ethiopia has a stronger relationship with somaliland, de facto they treat us as a country and are virtually in a security pact with somaliland which such news was crowned off by pm hailemariam's speech defending somaliland 'to the hilt'

Ethiopia has a whole interests in ex somalia not a partial interests.

[BigBreak]

somalia will do harm to itself it was to have a bad relationship with somaliland, only a good relationship with us will be the key to somalia's normalization as a country - recognition of somaliland's independence is a pre condition to a good relationship let us not be a new ethio/eri relationship of emnity

[Waqooyism]

Ethiopia does not have good relationship with Smiling Cullusow aka Hassan NGO. In fact, they are at all time low.

And that's great news. Ahmed Madobe of Jubbaland gets better reception.

[sahal80]

somalia will do harm to itself it was to have a bad relationship with somaliland, only a good relationship with us will be the key to somalia's normalization as a country - recognition of somaliland's independence is a pre condition to a good relationship let us not be a new ethio/eri relationship of emnity

Ethnically, your not different than any somali group and ethiopia has in each somali region a different interests. Somaliland has economical roles and is very close to the djboutian role. Puntland has political role and is more strategic to ethiopia because they have leadership role in somalia clan-wise also its galdogob at the borders is situated in central somalia.
Mogadisho has the state role

The relationship between ethiopia and somalia has nothing to do with somaliland, we have our enough southren problems and our president is a wise man, he doesn't claim somaliland, all he talks about is willing to unite with them. he said to the khatumo girl who asked him why he is not talking about them that he feels bad when he sees a soldier arresting a girl with a blue flag but he needs to sort out the things with them not with her group and that he will seek midnimo even if it costs him a referendum.

[SANDIEGUY]

You really believe ethiopia will side with hassan over ahmed madoobe?

[sahal80]

You really believe ethiopia will side with hassan over ahmed madoobe?

What political cards the shaykh has comparing to mogadisho?

Ethiopian policy was not to side with any somali region againist the other but from now on they will support the govt in the whole south or south of puntlad.

Besides mogadisho having a regional political cards they are worry now as the egyptian media is talking about the ONLF and some oromo groups in these days and all of them have offices in asmara so defo egypt will fund them through asmara.

Its about the geopolitical shifts.... and they want to keep the horn integration.

That is it. Let us stop here.

[SANDIEGUY]

Thats exactly why Ethiopia will do whatever it can to keep the kheikh happy because of the ONLF threat. What do you think the sheikh will do if they decide to sideline him? Perhaps he will pay a visit to egypt to secure funding through jubaland?

[sahal80]

Thats exactly why Ethiopia will do whatever it can to keep the kheikh happy because of the ONLF threat. What do you think the sheikh will do if they decide to sideline him? Perhaps he will pay a visit to egypt to secure funding through jubaland?

Yeah, do it then!

[zidane88]

What a laughable bunch are you!. this Government shall work proper when the pigs fly. Lip service won't change the reality on the Ground as the so called Mr President is losing his support among Somali Clans day by day. Had he behaved in a Reconciliation President, things would have been different and smooth, but instead he choose the hard way. He should learn crawling (his nick ) before trying to run. Don't try to convert us into disguised Nationalism and autistic Government (no pun intended) my two cents.

[SANDIEGUY]

Thats exactly why Ethiopia will do whatever it can to keep the kheikh happy because of the ONLF threat. What do you think the sheikh will do if they decide to sideline him? Perhaps he will pay a visit to egypt to secure funding through jubaland?

Yeah, do it then!

I am not the sheikh akhi, dont take it personal

[Waqooyism]

Sahal80,

I'm from Ethiopia and I know the game of the political elite in Addis Ababa. PM Hailemariam Desalegn is very smart and educated man. He dislikes Hassan and Sheikh Madobe equally but at this very moment, he knows Hassan is a salafist who belongs to Damul Jadid and thus is close to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Hassan made the mistake of hosting few Egyptian military officials earlier this month. The Ethiopian elites who are working behind the curtains decided to invite Madobe to counter this.

The message from Addis Ababa and the TPLF was: Somalia if you can host Egyptians and possibly Ethiopian oppositions in the future, we can also host your rivals.

Same cards Mengistu and Siad Barre were playing in the 1980s.

Ethiopia doesn't trust Cagdheer Sheikh Madobe, who is not only sympathetic to ONLF but is former al shabab member and still secretly holds their doctrines.

Now its a case of minimization. Who is more bigger threat? Hassan and Egypt are and for that reason, Ethiopia will tackle them now and later deal with Sheikh Madobe, ONLF and his many tribal militias.