The Somali Election Thread - Analysis & Prediction

[CaliQaseV2]

So, who is to take the Senate Speaker?

[Osob101]

The clue lies in the Interim Consistution regarding the Upper House Dilema and why I personally am not sure about it. As someone who has witnessed some of this process first hand, something very very odd that contradicts a piece of the interim Consistution which is supported this Government happened.

[CaliQaseV2]

Something you can't say?

[Osob101]

So, who is to take the Senate Speaker?

Forget a Speaker the entire Upper House that has been created as is now is Illegitimate according to the Interim Consistution which the elections is based on and that's all am going to say for now

[CaliQaseV2]

Obviously there is no going back now. What are they gonna do about it?

[UlteriorMotive]

what a stange thing. This must be the most complex form of becoming a president and forming a goverment in the world.

[fanaanYG]

Guys can we say D&M are the most qabiilist in Somalia? Or are they fool and blindly follow what their massiah Shariif Sakiin said so? How come they all vote for him?

P.s All the candidates are losers who want personal gain and wealth.

[smooth]

Guys can we say D&M are the most qabiilist in Somalia? Or are they fool and blindly follow what their massiah Shariif Sakiin said so? How come they all vote for him?

P.s All the candidates are losers who want personal gain and wealth.

He is the only guy that picked his mp's completely uncontested by anyone, not by P/land, HSM, Galmudug, Hiirshabelle, J/land and even DIR, if he managed to pull of a sneak 69 coup like this with no argumentation and willing to sacrifice the speaker, it says a lot about his confidence of winning, every other MP election was heavily contested and disputed going through various ratification.

Dir Mps will not all vote for Xassan sheikh. Isaaq maybe. But the Northern Dir, Issa & Samaroon men like Bayle & Abdi Ismaciil Samatar will not vote for Xassan, Biyomal, Sure and other southern Dir will not vote for him.

He might only have 28 out of 61 Dir Votes. Atleast 33 might vote against him.

I happen to agree with you on that, at least that's the only dispute I have with Sahal, but all the rumours say he has them in the pocket, I am yet to be convinced and even if he does, these people are totally unprepared of the seismic shock waves.

Remember Shiekh Shariif had the same deals in place and he was betrayed by many people last minute when the situation changed from what it was meant to be, I believe the same will happen with the DIR votes this time, I know they absolutely won't go with the Darood block, so it's between Sakiin and HAG block.

farmajo is in nairobi so who campaigns for him in xamar? fahad yaasiin and group of ala sheeikh(murursade wing and their dhulbahante in-law abdikarim jamac director of city university). received money from qatar

so its not about the guys guys rather their team workers. wasnt fahad the main garguurte campaigner in 2012?

he wants to be a minister and mp but every thing goes for farah

this info is 100% correct in principle....you can check out my thread from april

http://www.dhacdo.org/wada-hadalo-hoose ... -farmaajo/

farmajo will not have an abgaal pm hes against certain subclans domination and wants to pick from smaller subclans. i can say his pm will pm an intellectual ala sheikh could be murursade....if hawadle he will appoint afyare elmi or abdinur sheekh

Interesting stuff I did not see the thread and makes sense, I was personally told by Fiqhe they have an agreement with Damul Jadiid against the other camp, now I wished I asked him more thoroughly, because I assumed he was talking about CC (because he did earlier)

I will catch one of his relatives sometime this week to clarify this statement, just to see who Ahla sheikh think they are fighting against, this would tell a lot, so far it looks like Ahla sheikh, Damul Jadiid, Farmaajo coalition against CC and Sakiin

Something that's hard to stomach make sense off to be honest, I know him and CC are buddies but he is staunchly Anti P/land J/land cannot see CC voters taking to him, and I know personally at least 5 supporters of him in Galmudug (DIR, minorities) and the bulk of Galmudug vote in the second panic round is up for grab's.

Outside of Shariif Sakiin, Sh Shariif and HSM, I do not see them voting for Farmaajo if HSM doesn't get through, they will all go with Sakiin who is heavily Pro Galmudug (excluding MX), I haven't seen Farmaajo approach in Galmudug at all, even the minorities I met it's between Sheikh Shariif and HSM, with some bitterly pissed at the latter. There is a lot of surprises in store.

You need to give us a breakdown were the first/second/third votes for Hiirshabelle will go to, what % is going HSM?

[sahal80]

I think the top 5 in the first round will be


1. Xassan Sheikh (HAG Hawiyes, Half of Northern Dir) 95 votes
2. Farmaajo (Majority of Darood, Majority of .5, Some Southern Dir, mybe some Murursade & Xawadle, Half of Northern Dir) 110 votes
3. Shariif Sakiin (all of Digil & Mirifle) 69 votes
4. Sheikh Shariif (Alaa Sheikhs, Some Dir, Some Hawiye) 35 votes
5. Omar Abdirashid (Some PL, mainly Mj) 20+ votes

Sheikh Shariif alaa Sheikh votes & Omars votes will go to Farmaajo but Sharif Sakin the bastards has 69 votes and is Anti Darood he most likely will support HSM. But he will come out a looser loosing the Speakers position if they abstain from running for it, because HSM or Sheikh Shariif will not want to upset Darood & Not select a PM from them, Most likely Ogaden. instead he might get couple of important ministers he selects. If Darood wins he bet on the wrong horse, not get to select his ministers and loose the Speaker. Dir might gain the Speaker.

kkkk whos crazy to vote for sharif? if he secures his 15 subclan seats i will be surprised. any abgaal who gets few votes out of his subclan will be osoble

garguurte has neither abgaal votes it will be divided between him and osoble

all harti darod and ogaden support CCC. CCC atleast will get 65 seats in the first round(40 PL and 25 JL) with the upper house around 100 as his maximum number

so he needs sharif hassan votes=70 thats 170

still needs 200 or two-thirds of the vote based on their presence if all elected if not 185 the least like the last year. garguurte got 190


the number of the two houses is 329

in the first round, garguurte will get a mix of HAG and dir votes let us give him maximum 120 votes

farmaajo is not the front-runner candidate....no way bc mps are pro-maamuls 70%

i said farmajo will be the third and this is a set up. if sharif hassan votes CCC garguurte will vote for farmajo

farmajo can win over CC bc they r the same clan and has other votes

if farmajo does not get enough votes for the second round then CCC will have big chance to win.

[smooth]

Sahal

Great analysis, Nugaal needs to give us break down of the supposed Harti block against CC, his analysis is interesting if true, but sources needed, because the words on the street and every finger is pointing to CC big majority for several months now

He is true about the Dhullo'z selection of Gaas being rejected and the Pro Khaatumite's elected, but I thought Gaas struck a deal with them, the only reason I find what he is saying is credible, is because of gaas deal with HSM which only makes sense with his analysis that the D block vote split between Farmaajo/Yuulka

But I cannot see J/land going anywhere but CC, the man virtually helped build that place, and I know CC was pro Khaatumo in the background which puts a big hole in his theory, but it's interesting nevertheless, Munafiqnimo is rife in these elections.

If HSM manages to pull this off just as he managed to fight off IC and the election being held in Xalane (he would certainly loose if he didn't win this) this will go down as the greatest coup, what he and Guleed did in Galmudug had I wrote all is remarkable, iskudirka is on another level

I will regard him as a genius if he wins. Hate the man all you want, but strategy wise he is on another level, just like you, I do not believe any HAG will make it to the second round and most certainly not beyond it except him, and even if he looses he will spoil it for CC, remarkable, all this while the entire IC is against him including UAE that didn't even invite him.

[sahal80]

Interesting stuff I did not see the thread and makes sense, I was personally told by Fiqhe they have an agreement with Damul Jadiid against the other camp, now I wished I asked him more thoroughly, because I assumed he was talking about CC (because he did earlier)

I will catch one of his relatives sometime this week to clarify this statement, just to see who Ahla sheikh think they are fighting against, this would tell a lot, so far it looks like Ahla sheikh, Damul Jadiid, Farmaajo coalition against CC and Sakiin

Something that's hard to stomach make sense off to be honest, I know him and CC are buddies but he is staunchly Anti P/land J/land, and I know personally at least 5 supporters of him in Galmudug (DIR, minorities) and the bulk of Galmudug vote in the second panic round is up for grab's.

Outside of Shariif Sakiin, Sh Shariif and HSM, I do not see them voting for Farmaajo if HSM doesn't get through, they will all go with Sakiin who is heavily Pro Galmudug (excluding MX), I haven't seen Farmaajo approach in Galmudug, but I have seen CC supporters.

You need to give us a breakdown were the first/second/third votes for Hiirshabelle will go to, what % is going HSM?

exactly..garguurte, farmajo(back-up cabdidate) three ala sheekh wings(daljir/fiqi(garguurte)murursade(farmajo)bukhari/abtidon(saleban garguurte)+ina carte, mahad cawad(Dir)

sharif hassan and goodah have reached a deal to go for the speaker but recently garguurte was inviting him as sanlolshe is campaiging for CC so i never heard any thing new.....it was part of garguurte attracting all the HAG candidates he fought them during the mp selections like fiqi....im waiting info from someone regarding godah

i think he may changed his mind bc now the websites r talking about CC abd sharif hassan persuading shakuur to go for the speaker post and that they will vote for him...IF UAE pays him money he will kkk

[smooth]

i think he may changed his mind bc now the websites r talking about CC abd sharif hassan persuading shakuur to go for the speaker post and that they will vote for him...IF UAE pays him money he will kkk

I heard this angle, I cannot see this happening, CC has a deal with Shakur to make him PM which is a very powerful rumour I heard from the Ceyr knowledgeable circles, he want's HG as a PM no doubt, the speaker strategy will nullify this, this is why I think it will go with DIR, CC is hoping to lure Galmudug voting block with this, he already has supporters inside especially from his maternal side.

This kind of move will not suit the CC camp, I think this is just pure scaremongering PR, so is the Goodah stuff, after the speaker election everything becomes more clear, You need to give us an update in Hiirshabelle how the votes will go, I have a good idea of Galmudug how they are split.

[sahal80]

i think he may changed his mind bc now the websites r talking about CC abd sharif hassan persuading shakuur to go for the speaker post and that they will vote for him...IF UAE pays him money he will kkk

I heard this angle, I cannot see this happening, CC has a deal with Shakur to make him PM which is a very powerful rumour I heard from the Ceyr knowledgeable circles, he want's HG as a PM no doubt, the speaker strategy will nullify this, this is why I think it will go with DIR, CC is hoping to lure Galmudug voting block with this, he already has supporters inside especially from his maternal side.

This kind of move will not suit the CC camp, I think this is just pure scaremongering PR, so is the Goodah stuff, after the speaker election everything becomes more clear, You need to give us an update in Hiirshabelle how the votes will go, I have a good idea of Galmudug how they are split.

shakur as a speaker doesnt work bc CC has a HG pm card. the godah story is true 100% and it has to do with sharif hassan not CC. even garguurte said to him he and CCC will enter an unholy alliance against him like the ali khalif scenario. he offered to him alot of money and the finance minister post. it was godah who gone for sharif hassan bc of sanlolshes relations with the other two. gorguurte assured him that he and sanka are no more friends. godah is not that easy but he is a man who keeps his word unlike of garguurte.

[sahal80]

.

[FarhanYare]

Can somebody tell me why someone like Sh. Shariif is running for office again after loosing his last bid to get re-elected? This guy maba quusto .

Smooth,

Say what you said about Cumar buur markoo gado hobyo adigoo nool