The Somali Election Thread - Analysis & Prediction

[BlackRain]

Interesting analyzes .....

Ok now you all mentioned the favorite ones. What are the chances of somebody totally new coming and totally blind-siding us like HSM did four years ago. I need to see a list of all individuals running so perhaps i can read their bio?

The speaker election on Wednesday will totally clear a lot and here is hope that Hawiye will get it so it wipes out unuku leh and HSM at once so you can see fresh power in Moqdisho.

Sahal, i have a question if Hawiye run for speaker and they actually won it, does that mean HSM and Sheikh Sharif will be automatically disqualified or will they run?

[sahal80]

Interesting analyzes .....

Ok now you all mentioned the favorite ones. What are the chances of somebody totally new coming and totally blind-siding us like HSM did four years ago. I need to see a list of all individuals running so perhaps i can read their bio?

The speaker election on Wednesday will totally clear a lot and here is hope that Hawiye will get it so it wipes out unuku leh and HSM at once so you can see fresh power in Moqdisho.

Sahal, i have a question if Hawiye run for speaker and they actually won it, does that mean HSM and Sheikh Sharif will be automatically disqualified or will they run?

Yes and thats why sharif hassan is behind it but there are no real candidates for the speaker post, only gorgortan. i think speaker will go for Dir, for this reason, garguurte is trying to reduce the dir numbers but it may backfire him

there is big opportunity now for the non hawiyes or let us say for the non Iriris. there is no HG opposition leader so they can replace the mj slogan no more abgaals!

there r 6 abgaal candidates; garuurte, osoble, jibril, sharif, badiyow and geedi! split abgaals votes between them how can they get other votes? atleast CC has no local rivals

i heard that cali geedi is the abgaals last card and that garguurte even knows this

garguurte is commiting big mistake not only himsef but the also on the entire HAG, he picked few notherners out of 45 mps. the rest may miss the election train. these are irir votes so the situation does not favor HAG this time as D&M is acting separately. having D&M president is possible and whats more important is who will they vote for the third round if they lose the race

[bromie1]

Guys. I call it for HSM. If I was a betting man i would say he is pulling this off easy. I also think he has more mps from southwest than the sharif guy. He used to go from tuulo to tuulo and knows the deal morethan everyone. He is going to win in the first round if not the second. Depending on the speaker seat ofcourse. So there.

[LightAtNight]

Interesting analyzes .....

Ok now you all mentioned the favorite ones. What are the chances of somebody totally new coming and totally blind-siding us like HSM did four years ago. I need to see a list of all individuals running so perhaps i can read their bio?

The speaker election on Wednesday will totally clear a lot and here is hope that Hawiye will get it so it wipes out unuku leh and HSM at once so you can see fresh power in Moqdisho.

Sahal, i have a question if Hawiye run for speaker and they actually won it, does that mean HSM and Sheikh Sharif will be automatically disqualified or will they run?

If Mjs are now anti abgaal, that tells you abgaals are doing something right

[FarhanYare]

Interesting analyzes .....

Ok now you all mentioned the favorite ones. What are the chances of somebody totally new coming and totally blind-siding us like HSM did four years ago. I need to see a list of all individuals running so perhaps i can read their bio?

The speaker election on Wednesday will totally clear a lot and here is hope that Hawiye will get it so it wipes out unuku leh and HSM at once so you can see fresh power in Moqdisho.

Sahal, i have a question if Hawiye run for speaker and they actually won it, does that mean HSM and Sheikh Sharif will be automatically disqualified or will they run?

If Mjs are now anti abgaal, that tells you abgaals are doing something right

[FarhanYare]

Sahal,

I don't think it is as simple as you put it. Abgaal are not simply gonna divide their votes because there are six candidates representing them. Well I hope that to be the case. Otherwise, we are in for a shocker!

[smooth]

Every round the votes start again, in the first round they will be fiercely divided due to the number of candidates participating, mark my words, Shariif Sakiin will blitz the first round with at least 60+, no one will come close to him in the first round in sheer numbers.

That same block however may not be enough in the second round unless he has found a way to significantly add to them outside the D&M block, I know so far he has 5 from Galmudug alone that takes him to a total of 74 at least, and I expect him to pick up at least another 10, he spent all that time campaigning while having 69 in his pocket from the very start.

[TheblueNwhite]

Mid to late January Allah na gaarsiiyo. Thats when the real contenders will be shine through.

[THE_TRUTH1]

Hassan sheikh and CC are In trouble




Kulankan ayaa looga hadlay sidii la isaga kaashan lahaa doorashada soo socda, iyo sidii loogu midoobi lahaa in is bedel dalka ka dhaco

[CaliQaseV2]

Hassan sheikh and CC are In trouble




Kulankan ayaa looga hadlay sidii la isaga kaashan lahaa doorashada soo socda, iyo sidii loogu midoobi lahaa in is bedel dalka ka dhaco

Hawiye futo madoobe yaa ka maqanba?

[AbkoowDhiblaawe]

Hassan sheikh and CC are In trouble




Kulankan ayaa looga hadlay sidii la isaga kaashan lahaa doorashada soo socda, iyo sidii loogu midoobi lahaa in is bedel dalka ka dhaco

Hiiraab plotting.

[sahal80]

Interesting analyzes .....

Ok now you all mentioned the favorite ones. What are the chances of somebody totally new coming and totally blind-siding us like HSM did four years ago. I need to see a list of all individuals running so perhaps i can read their bio?

The speaker election on Wednesday will totally clear a lot and here is hope that Hawiye will get it so it wipes out unuku leh and HSM at once so you can see fresh power in Moqdisho.

Sahal, i have a question if Hawiye run for speaker and they actually won it, does that mean HSM and Sheikh Sharif will be automatically disqualified or will they run?

If Mjs are now anti abgaal, that tells you abgaals are doing something right

mid abgaal ah baan waagii saacid iyo yuulka la kulmay. ninkaan cajiib waaye mutacalim maaha laakiin si simple ah uu wax walbe kuugu dhigaa. wuxuu yiri:" eeboow anaka iyo mj hal muqaayad oo xamar la dhahaan laheen laakiinse muqaayad kaleey ka furteen garoowe...ee ma soconayso labada muqaayadaa tartamaa muga sharekoodii mareexaanaan siiyey kkkkk

[BlackRain]

Nothing against Abgaals , but their tenure was total failure. Imagine having the capital , money and the international aid. They even had the arms embargo lifted a while back! WHAT we got in these 8 years is jareer apes breading like rats in the capital and they can't tell em to leave. Their president is guarded by these same bantus day n night with no hope of seeing the back of these jareers.

[jayalism]

Smooth and Sahal

What is your analysis of the four men in that picture? Does anyone have a chance?

And what about HG as a group. Do they have a chance to challenge CC and HSM?

[LightAtNight]

Nothing against Abgaals , but their tenure was total failure. Imagine having the capital , money and the international aid. They even had the arms embargo lifted a while back! WHAT we got in these 8 years is jareer apes breading like rats in the capital and they can't tell em to leave. Their president is guarded by these same bantus day n night with no hope of seeing the back of these jareers.

This is totally unfair of you, president hassan has put such extraordinary effort in turning around the most failed state in the world, Somalia today is unrecognisable from how it was from four years ago, the people have have benefited most from the progress that has been made are reer mogadishu and everybody can witness the leaps and bounds progress mogadishu has made.

You're saying imagine having the captial? what does that actually mean? Having the capital means you actually have more challenges to deal with not less, go back and reflect on the foolishness of this post, so easy for you to be dismissive in your comfort in the west or wherever you are. Do you know the daily challenges of brining back a state that collapsed more than two dacades ago? did you want everything to be up and running in four years?

The bantus are necessary, building a security force is not like making a wish to a jinni and suddenly everything appears, it takes years and a lot of effort, it goes back to the same problem of having had a security vacuum for more than 2 decades, Also the difficulty of getting funds and in the right amount and using the right channels, I cant exhaust the list of challenges that a nascent government faces, you cant just click your fingers and get everything you want!!

And why did you talk about abgaal, what does abgaal have to do with this, the somali government is a national government that reflects all the clans in the country, the only abgaal is the president here

Anyway whether hassan comes back or not, he has made his mark and laid the foundation for a functioning professional government that did not exist before, Viva hassan sheikh