Just two weeks after my analysis here Washington's ambassador in Mogadishu reaches the same conclusion: THE SOUTH IS LOST
Of course Washington is not stupid, their opportunistic strategy has always been hijack Somali state institutions,(Ethiopian tanks rolling in Mogadishu) install strong yes-man with corrupt ceremonial "parliament" and have their way with Somali resources and their ignorant clans. But Somali people are smart, we are not stupid like the rest of Africa. Most Somalis see alshabaab as the lesser of two evil and that is why it has been so hard to dislodge them.
Most Somalis want stable indigenous politics and economic development with zero strings attached. The West and other Capitalist vultures would laugh at this mentality. This is proven time and again with the fetish emphasis of centralizing "Somali political institutions" since Ethiopian invasion. How much help did GM state, a critical component of the fight against radicals, get? Negligible.
You think this change of heart is to the benefit of Somali people. Never. They now see the big picture and the consequences of their imperialistic greed. They see the South as lost cause and that the next meaningful front to contain this ideological movement would be Baledweyne- Harardheere line.
====== My analysis two weeks before ======
I think it is too late for the south now.
Anyone seen the Day After Tomorrow, where Jack Hall(Denis Quaid) draws a line on the US map and says, "evacuate anyone south of this line" The Veep looks at him and says what about the people on the North,. Jack looks at him and says, "too late for them"
I really think it matters little what Hiraab does or doesn't. There is 95% chance that south will sink. The new defensive line will have to be drawn in Baladwenye all the way to cost of Harardheere. South of Baledweyne will be lost to Islamists, North of Baledwenye can be defended if Habargidir wakes up and starts to think strategically.
Survival and consolidation
I think it is time that GM state(Habargidir) and Somaliland(Isaaq) should actively cooperate to fortify this line. Within a few years this line of thinking will be mainstream in both groups. GM state has always acted as a strategic buffer for Somaliland and a defensive umbrella for Hawiye subclans. I think this type of arrangement has served its purposes. Alshabaab and other Islamist groups will gradually overrun the south and consolidate their grip on south of Baledweyne to Raskamboni. GM state, Somaliland will have zero choice but to develop a single security strategy to keep that line intact. Unless I am giving too much credit to the collective intelligence of the duo. I think the Sacads always sense danger from afar, but I could be wrong about this generation.
New Somalia (Geography, religious, political and historical identity would be a crucial factor. )
South of Baledweyne(Wahabi Somalia)
North of Baledweyne (Free Somalia). I think the Saudis and free world would have to throw their lot on this side.
Anyone who thinks this is far-fetched scenario would only need to examine two developments.
1. None of the sub-clans in the South have had a genuine control over their territories for the past 30 years. This starts early in 1990s and continues until the present. Look at the level of dysfunctionality and lack regional political identity(a prime example would be Marehans.) Save Somalia when their region is literally infested with Alshabaab and African Union). Mudulloods have had 8 years of their own president and could not create a regional political identity of their own. If Southern clans could not do what needed to be done in peaceful and opportune time how can we expect them to do under constant alshabaab threat.
The opposite picture emerges if you look at the political identity and the level organization on the sub-clans that live north of Baledweyn.
This starts with Somaliland in 1991, few years later Puntland, then 2004 GM state. More importantly there is a strong local political and religious identity that makes it harder for an outsider to impose his wahabi crap.
2. In terms of pure power politics you have a delusional Haraadigii Bare character who thinks he can restore the lost days of "Barre civilization"
. Next, you have the usual local opposition groups that have 90% of the economy, 90% population and who will always smell Barre's mouth from Afgooye.
In the meantime you have the foreign people, the ones that drove their anti terror state apparatus on the back of Ethiopian tanks into Mogadishu, watching and waiting for democratic and united Somalia to miraculously take shape.
- Somalia would break up into two ideologically opposed camps, with Baledweyne being the dividing line. Think of North and South Korea.
- Hawadle needs to join GM state to survive.
- The sooner GM state and Somaliland start making plans for survival contingency the better.
- GM state business groups should make plans to move their investment away from the south. Population would have to follow.
- This would eventually mean the break up of Hawiye sub-clan alliance, one that started with United Somali Congress.
What about Puntland?
This state could go both ways. Strategically their interest perfect aligns with GM state and Somaliland. The question is can they put aside useless clan emotions(Darodism) and make hard decisions to survive. History shows they will not, but the younger generations could be different.
Lenin used to say the reward for political stupidity is death. This is certainly true for the South, one half of Somalia is gone. Will the other half make better decisions. We will know soon.