Until recently, I didn't believe Farmaajo had a shot at reelection. I also questioned why he made travel to Kismaayo such a huge existential issue. It doesn't make any sense for someone to pursue such proposition.
Just yesterday, I was questioning why Farmaajo cares about who goes there so much.
Ironically enough I had a conversation with old forum member Sadeboi this morning and one of Farmaajo's closest aides who is in his office every morning. [For those of you who wish to give Salaams to Sadeboi, he is in Africa having moved therr so I'll send him your wishes.]
Farmaajo WANTEDthe opposition to go. He WANTED them to pick that side. He WANTS them on the record on this issue of Kismaayo/Kenya/Madoobe/Ocean Case.
I have previously just logically kind of deduced the possible effects of the Court issue and also said everything WE SEE is "in transition" and there will be an account settling.
This is why Kenya is trying to post-pone the Court Case if it can't stop it.
It knows the possible ramifications in terms of upsetting the entire Somali political calculus which is why they want to post-pone until after next presidential election.
The court case WILL NOT be given another deferral. Kenya has already failed to post-pone it for a year when the Court instead agreed to November.
What I have found out is that Farmaajo's entire POLITICAL CALCULUS is on this issue.
It's not just Jubbaland and Madoobe, but HIS ENTIRE REELECTION CAMPAIGN centers on this issue and the first step is delegitimizing the opposition by putting them ON THE RECORD.
If things go as planned, going by the detailed step by step action plan Farmaajo put together, wallahi I have confidence this guy will break the curse and be reelected.
You won't even have to wait long, it's already mid-October, and the Court Case starts in couple weeks in November.
You will start to see the 2nd step in Farmaajo's plans (the 1st step was TO MAKE THEM TALK, ACT, GET ON THE RECORD which they all are now) in literally 3-4 weeks.
Wallahi the guy is a genius.
