Damn. This is frigging crazy!

[Voltage]

Alright so the title is clickbait, but enjoy nonetheless.This topic needs no introduction.


P.S. There were almost 20 "motion/impeachment" predictions by someone. Forum rules only allow 5 links so I picked the first couple ones 6 months into the current government's term (he was so sure there were about 3 predictions just in that month) and one each from 2018 and 2019. Perhaps later I will post more. It's really funny because if you look at the predictions in totality, you sort of realize if a bird farted, it was a sure sign of impeachment according to some people.

• September 5, 2017
  
  
  • According to Sahal, Farmaajo "Group" is pushing a motion against Kheyre in order to save Farmaajo from Qalbidhigax controversy. Apparently a recourse is through the Supreme Court headed by a pro-Damjadeed Northerner.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      Groupka Farmaajo oo ka hormaraya in motion laga keeno ayaa hoos ka wada motion ku lid ah khayre, sidoo kale wuxuu damacsanyahay in gobaha ay isku dhaceen khayre siyaarto sida baladweyne ahahahaha too late
      
      
      president can be removed not just by motion but also by the approval of the constitutional court. since this court is not there the case will be referred to the suprime court chaired by a pro Damjadiid waqooyi who was already fearing getting targeted by this govt so im sure he will agree unless he gets fired in the coming days
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 6#p4833162

• September 8, 2017
  
  
  • According to Sahal, "Kheyrlaawe" is gone, but he is fighting back. While Farmaajo has sent clan envoys to convince him to quietly leave, apparently Kheyre is staging an internal coup and even will attend the United Nations General Assembly instead of the President.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      kheyre is gone
      
      Khayrlaawe is up to no good but his latest moves look like a shadow diplomatic coup. word is that he is attending the UN GA in 12 September instead of Fakemaajo. he used to attend the IGAD and AU summits in Addis Abaa. will this be followed by internal coup? koley waa isku bilaabeen and Farmaajo is hiding under the HG motion against khayre. Farmaajo said he doesnt wanna people know their political infghting bc it was one of his promises... so he asked his tol to convince him resign.
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 8#p4834142

• September 19, 2017
  
  
  • According to Sahal, Kheyre broke the govt position on foreign affairs by siding with UAE/Saudi after getting threatened with a motion. Farmaajo followed behind him tk UAE side and was promised "90 million" by the Emirates. Fahad Yaasiin, angry for Qatar, is conspiring with a motion.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      After khayre got threatened by a motion in the last days he decided to side with the UAE and the Saudi camp against Qatar via Southwest and GALMUDUG also farmaajo visiting the UAE base and them promised $90 million and incorporating these troops into the SNA
      
      All this has angered fahad yasin who controls the foreign policy bc of Qatar
      
      Fahad has the pm who could replace khayre if he gets ousted for this reason he's considered conpirering with the motion
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 3#p4836499

• December 11, 2018
  
  
  • Sahal self-congratulates himself saying impeachment for Farmaajo is coming faster than he originally "predicted" for "early 2019." Also, the usual conspiracy about Kheyre and Farmaajo's bad relationship.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      This motion has reminded me of my two year term for Farmaajo presidency wich i stated in his first months. I also predicted early election by 2019....Now the only card left for him is khayre to go but khayre is threatening to join Mursal and says let me deal with him instead of you dealing with him so he can make sure he wont be targeted
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 0#p4913213

• March 19, 2019
  
  
  • According to Sahal, motion season has begun and Kheyre is behind a motion to impeach Farmaajo for selling the sea and working with Kenya. Kheyre apparently has the support of Mursal the Speaker and the Parliament who will give him the authority of the President.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      So kheyre motion against farmaajo is about kenya "and selling out the sea!" When he is in cahoots with kenya! Via Mursal he is planning to be the person who's accountable for the parliament wich means giving him the authorities the president enjoys now.
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 1#p4930856

[vinshom]

There is something called reconciliation.

[Somaliweeyn007]

Alright so the title is clickbait, but enjoy nonetheless.This topic needs no introduction.


P.S. There were almost 20 "motion/impeachment" predictions by someone. Forum rules only allow 5 links so I picked the first couple ones 6 months into the current government's term (he was so sure there were about 3 predictions just in that month) and one each from 2018 and 2019. Perhaps later I will post more. It's really funny because if you look at the predictions in totality, you sort of realize if a bird farted, it was a sure sign of impeachment according to some people.

• September 5, 2017
  
  
  • According to Sahal, Farmaajo "Group" is pushing a motion against Kheyre in order to save Farmaajo from Qalbidhigax controversy. Apparently a recourse is through the Supreme Court headed by a pro-Damjadeed Northerner.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      Groupka Farmaajo oo ka hormaraya in motion laga keeno ayaa hoos ka wada motion ku lid ah khayre, sidoo kale wuxuu damacsanyahay in gobaha ay isku dhaceen khayre siyaarto sida baladweyne ahahahaha too late
      
      
      president can be removed not just by motion but also by the approval of the constitutional court. since this court is not there the case will be referred to the suprime court chaired by a pro Damjadiid waqooyi who was already fearing getting targeted by this govt so im sure he will agree unless he gets fired in the coming days
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 6#p4833162

• September 8, 2017
  
  
  • According to Sahal, "Kheyrlaawe" is gone, but he is fighting back. While Farmaajo has sent clan envoys to convince him to quietly leave, apparently Kheyre is staging an internal coup and even will attend the United Nations General Assembly instead of the President.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      kheyre is gone
      
      Khayrlaawe is up to no good but his latest moves look like a shadow diplomatic coup. word is that he is attending the UN GA in 12 September instead of Fakemaajo. he used to attend the IGAD and AU summits in Addis Abaa. will this be followed by internal coup? koley waa isku bilaabeen and Farmaajo is hiding under the HG motion against khayre. Farmaajo said he doesnt wanna people know their political infghting bc it was one of his promises... so he asked his tol to convince him resign.
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 8#p4834142

• September 19, 2017
  
  
  • According to Sahal, Kheyre broke the govt position on foreign affairs by siding with UAE/Saudi after getting threatened with a motion. Farmaajo followed behind him tk UAE side and was promised "90 million" by the Emirates. Fahad Yaasiin, angry for Qatar, is conspiring with a motion.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      After khayre got threatened by a motion in the last days he decided to side with the UAE and the Saudi camp against Qatar via Southwest and GALMUDUG also farmaajo visiting the UAE base and them promised $90 million and incorporating these troops into the SNA
      
      All this has angered fahad yasin who controls the foreign policy bc of Qatar
      
      Fahad has the pm who could replace khayre if he gets ousted for this reason he's considered conpirering with the motion
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 3#p4836499

• December 11, 2018
  
  
  • Sahal self-congratulates himself saying impeachment for Farmaajo is coming faster than he originally "predicted" for "early 2019." Also, the usual conspiracy about Kheyre and Farmaajo's bad relationship.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      This motion has reminded me of my two year term for Farmaajo presidency wich i stated in his first months. I also predicted early election by 2019....Now the only card left for him is khayre to go but khayre is threatening to join Mursal and says let me deal with him instead of you dealing with him so he can make sure he wont be targeted
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 0#p4913213

• March 19, 2019
  
  
  • According to Sahal, motion season has begun and Kheyre is behind a motion to impeach Farmaajo for selling the sea and working with Kenya. Kheyre apparently has the support of Mursal the Speaker and the Parliament who will give him the authority of the President.
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      

      So kheyre motion against farmaajo is about kenya "and selling out the sea!" When he is in cahoots with kenya! Via Mursal he is planning to be the person who's accountable for the parliament wich means giving him the authorities the president enjoys now.
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 1#p4930856

Sahal likes storytelling it seems

[XHKS]

2013

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=330069


sahal, lakin ina adeerow naga daa beentaan aan xadka lahayn, saan waba indocadays

sahal, is the greatest analyst of islamist movement in somalia

Voltage, sahal is guy that hears rumors but cant synthesise with factual evidence, nevertheless there is some truth to his speculation about islamist intentions and tribal intentions

the truth is somalia is in institution building stage, so the under the table politics and money dont cut no more, hence why sahals predictions are right at the motive level and wrong on the outcome, never the less, the motivations and quest for power of politicians is true.
there isa power greater then ethiopia UAE and others in play, Uncle sam has a base in mogadishu and has the money, force and inteligence to bend anybody world wide to his will in somalia


sahal is one my favorite snetter waan dhiba sometimes because I know he is motivated by xawadlisim

[IRONm@N]

Lol, This Sahal guy is shameless.
I saw a few post of him that were all like that, I guess he doesn’t care about his credibility.

[FarhanYare]

Research culus

[Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE]

Where is sahal madow badane..come collect your L

[Voltage]

Eaglehawk, Sahal is also one of my favorite snetters wallahul cadiim.

Even this topic which is a direct attack on his credibility is not necessarily about Sahal the Person, it's about Sahal as a conduit for ku tiri ku teen (speculation, hearsay which in Somali terms is always presented as fact and not subjective conjuncture or rumor; it's not even an "opinion").

Sahal is a big boy though so I feel no need to infantilize him and treat him with kiddy gloves. My position is "I respect you, but that's bullshit."

Sahal is not an "analyst" of Islamism in Somalia. An analyst engages in "analysis" which implies deep dive introspection, an impartial or at least an open mind to prevent your "blindspots" (subconscious inclination/bias) from interfering with the subject matter, and knowledge gathering governed by a methodology and not simply "chance." Even if we let go "someone told me" as qualitative methodology (narrative), what provides legitimacy to the inference we are supposed to derive from the story? Without that legitimacy, it's not an analysis but anecdote.

What Sahal does very well, more than any other single person on this entire forum, is manifest in his own physical form (i.e. his "person") the political hopes, dreams, and pitfalls of the Somali State himself. As a secularist, it pains me to say a plurality, maybe even a majority, of people in the Somali State believe in Islamism as the vehicle to achieve those aspirations. But this is extremely nuanced with regards to the Somali State because the Somali people are still a developing (if even) society beholden to a culture that is probably the single biggest check on competing ideologies which include the type of "Islamism" that scares the West.

Xeer (customary law at the center of Somali culture) is probably one of the most xenophobic systems ever developed by man. Xeer absolutely hates anything else that wants to speak beside it.

Xeer has already spoken and said "Islam, I gave you enough space". He adds "Because my people call you God's message, I have compromised to the best of my ability." He laments "When you insisted on being the one to marry my sons to my daughters, I relented, but NOT before you agreed I would seek my daughter's hand for my son."

In my opinion, Islamism as understood internationally is already dead in Somalia. You just don't know it, because it is on life sport. Also, nerves sometimes continue to kick long after a chicken's head is cut.

Somali Islamism, however, which Sahal manifests is probably the form the Somali State will take. It would be an "Islamic State" that judges with Xeer and not Xudud (Hudud Laws or corporal punishment in Sharia Law) for the thief. It would be an "Islamic State" that judges with International Law and not Qisas for the adulterer. It would be an "Islamic State" where our friend Sahal, despite all his redeeming good qualities, is fundamentally first a citizen of his Xeer polity (in his case principally Xawaadle) and not the Somali Islamic State let alone the "Ummah."

But of course Xeer formed because we were never united. We were countless segmented lineage groups fighting for scarce resources and Xeer came and gave us the mechanism to settle conflict. We then asked him to stay and be the judge. Xeer never concerned himself with UNITY because that was not his mandate; it was irrelevant to him. And of course, he was too busy settling conflict. He is hardly available to this very second.

The world, however, has changed and we were dragged, kicking and screaming to the new world order of "States." For their very existence, States require unity apparently and, because our esteemed judge Xeer has recused himself "officially," we need a face for this new system. How about Islam? Islam unites!

So Islam is the face that will unite a people that have NEVER been united, but to sustain unity, we all know Xeer will be the real judge when it comes to settle conflict and give us meaning as the Somali people group.

Xeer, my friend, is the tenured professor in the Somali University. He sho aint going no where and he don had it up to here with the shenanigans corrupting his craft.

So sxb, what Sahal expresses in his very person, and what I find so fascinating about him, is the manifestation of the Somali people's reality in Somalia today; facile in outlook, pragmatic about livelihood, fixed to custom, adaptable to exigency, and most importantly, transactional with ideology.

[Voltage]

Where is sahal madow badane..come collect your L

Somehow I knew you would enjoy this.

[Voltage]

I don't want to beat a dead horse and this isn't personal, but I did promise to post more. I can't be bothered with all the rest of them, but I will just post the last three predictions before the past weekend's prediction.

• April 23, 2019
  
  
  
  • According to Sahal, an impeachment motion has been started against Kheyre. The people that started the motion want the PM so they can influence the coming election in favor of the opposition.
    
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      
      

      Fiqi says this is the last chance if farmaajo before shirka juun. Already some started today a motion against kheyre. They want the PM so they can influence next election for favour of HG. Nin labada lugood dhooqo uga jiraan baa saas u fakarayaa ....
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 0#p4936185

• October 11, 2019
  
  
  
  • According to Sahal, a decision has been reached in Kismaayo during Madoobe inauguration for the opposition to bring a motion against Farmaajo. Apparently the motion is planned by Shariif Sakiin and "countries" are pouring money into the opposition for this.
    
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      
      

      Siyaasiyiinta Qabiilooyinka waa wayn ee mucaaradka gees ka gees Somalia oo kismaayo ku qulqulaya ayaa heshiis ku gaarey in Farmaajo lagu tuuro motion. i have already made a thread about this i said the agenda was to prepare banaanbaxyo first now they have alot of anti constitution points lake messing with former presidents and placing sactionins on a Somali city. countries are pouring money into opposition.
      
      this guy will be dealt by sharif hassan he is his sleeping cell...the guy who heads this court was pro SL he must be their sleeping cell and gonna put the last nail on his coffin kkkk
      
      my friend my predictions are based on sources
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 0#p4956248

• November 12, 2019
  
  
  
  
  • According to Sahal, the opposition has a motion against Kheyre while also planning massive anti-govt protests. Because Kheyre is Hawiye while Farmaajo is Darod, the International Community is dealing with Kheyre as President to unite the burning city of Mogadishu.
    
    
    
    • Of course, none of this ever materialized.
      
      
      

      there is a isbadandool banaanbacyo and a motion against kheyre by the madasha group. current situation empowers kheyre as a local politician the IC will see him the right man to govern and deal with the situation instead of ousting the whole govt. its your time kheyre to make such move and save Xamar
      
      https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 4#p4961655

[Sagaashan]

I notice a pattern with all his predictions. Sahal believed the PM will be ousted in his earlier predictions, and has recently changed to the presidency. I don't blame the guy. He seems to be in hibernation due to the fact these two young politicians are unlike what he has ever encountered. For him, he does not believe two Somalis with a mandate and separate authorities can coexist. Unfortunately, these things have been confirmed by previous administrations who were afterall after a "bounty" or "loot" rather than engaged in the interests of state building and institutions. The best way to steal was through confusion and they achieved this goal through endless motions. So that is the world Sahal derives his motivation and "analysis." So he is literally a victim of the Somali political system in the past decade or as you put it "pitfalls of the Somali State"

Sometimes you feel sorry for the young gent. Even in this late hour and the end of this administrations mandated term, he still has not given up on that "motion" pony horse hoping for its late arrival and bringing his wishful thinking into reality. Even the corrupt "motion-based" administrations of HSM and Sh. Shariif have kept inept PMs for at least a year, so what gives him the impression, that people who have stayed together for longer periods would all of sudden fight and ruin their legacies, is beyond comprehension.

I don't expect the guy to benefit from this shrewd and embarrassing record and use it for self evaluation. He will undoubtedly come back with the latest rumor, or perhaps, get giddy with the next picture from Kheyre with Mahad Salad/Fiqi and exclaim "ITS OVER"