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If Amisom left Somalia today

Daily chitchat on Somali politics.

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Nomand
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If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Nomand » Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:31 am

Somalia today is build on complete falsehood. everything from FMS to 4.5 is build on AMISOM and if AMISOM left somalia today the whole thing would collapse.

do you think waare is capable of leading hiirshabeele if amisom was not guarding him in beledweyne?
do you think madoobe would even survive 2 hours in kismaayo without KDF AMISOM?
can lafatagreen survive even 30 minutes from al shabab without amisom?
can farmaajo survive without amisom?

for example take the MP seats.

Ogadeen got 12 seats because of 4.5 and because of the darod card. while dhulbahante got 8 seats. do you honestly think that ogadeen have more land and more cities in somalia then dhulbahante?

the dhulbahante in laascanood alone outnumber ogadeen in somalia 3 to 1. then you have leelkaase who have a bigger city then them in goldobog and are arguably 1/4 of gaalkayco.

My point is if the foundation of the house is build on paper don't be surprised when the building collapses and the whole thing is held together by AMISOM and the international community.

which is why the only way forward for Somalia is 1 man 1 vote, otherwise let AMISOM leave and lets see if you can survive on your own. Before AMISOM no one would ask the likes of waare or madoobe about the affairs of Somalia. and after AMISOM whether it is by the gun or by the ballot they will return to their irrelevancy.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Voltage » Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:58 am

Lol at "Hirshabelle.",

Beledweyne Town didn't even have a single administration until Shabaab took it over.

There wasn't a single clan that could take over more than 1/3 of the town.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby UgaaskaBarakaysan » Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:58 pm

Warkaan wa xaqiqatan, Somalia as it is now is like a house of cards and the only thing holding it together is the IC and AMSIOM. There has been no bottom up rehabilitation of the state and thus this top down approach can't be sustained unless 1P1V is implemented.

As you said places like Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Koonfur Galbeed are only functioning due to the IC and AMISOM because of three truths that make it different to states such as Puntland and Somaliland and to a lesser degree Jubbaland but that is a special case.

Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Koonfurgalbeed have three things that make it non functional as independent states.

1) They don't have a source of income outside of the FGS i.e (Port, Taxation, etc.,)

2) They don't provide security services independently of AMISOM and would not last for even a day if those outside forces were to leave.

3)There are no services they provide to the populace in the areas that come under their jurisdiction, this can be insurgent held areas in Galmudug's case (CeelBuur, Ceeldheere, Xarardheere etc.,) or in Hirshabelle's case if you go on the road in many areas you will be taxed by insurgents and they hold sway in much of the region. For koonfurgalbeed the situation was volatile even with the selection of the current leader there and some segments of that populace were willing to put a person like roboow in power which shows some of their mindset.

The differences that JL, PL and SL have is that they receive some income outside of the IC, mainly from their ports (Berbera, Bosaso, Kismayo) they have foreign patronage that is able to directly invest and support the heads of these places (UAE For SL/PL and Kenya for JL outside of a AMISOM contingent) and this allows them to be more so independent. However JL has some similarities to the aforementioned areas in key ways as well that make it a special case.

Having said that I do agree that if there was no outside presence many of the people we see in power today would not be able to do so, in many ways the interference masks up a lot of the lingering wounds with a proverbial bandage. Only 1p1v will be able to remedy this, however many of the current fms leaders are trying to push this down the road which is a dangerous prospect.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Halmogg » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:40 pm

I agree, many bullshit paper mamuuls. The worst gotta be Hirshabelle

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby paperino » Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:19 pm

I agree, many bullshit paper mamuuls. The worst gotta be Hirshabelle
Why have you singled out Hirshabelle as the worst?

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Nomand » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:05 pm

Warkaan wa xaqiqatan, Somalia as it is now is like a house of cards and the only thing holding it together is the IC and AMSIOM. There has been no bottom up rehabilitation of the state and thus this top down approach can't be sustained unless 1P1V is implemented.

As you said places like Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Koonfur Galbeed are only functioning due to the IC and AMISOM because of three truths that make it different to states such as Puntland and Somaliland and to a lesser degree Jubbaland but that is a special case.

Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Koonfurgalbeed have three things that make it non functional as independent states.

1) They don't have a source of income outside of the FGS i.e (Port, Taxation, etc.,)

2) They don't provide security services independently of AMISOM and would not last for even a day if those outside forces were to leave.

3)There are no services they provide to the populace in the areas that come under their jurisdiction, this can be insurgent held areas in Galmudug's case (CeelBuur, Ceeldheere, Xarardheere etc.,) or in Hirshabelle's case if you go on the road in many areas you will be taxed by insurgents and they hold sway in much of the region. For koonfurgalbeed the situation was volatile even with the selection of the current leader there and some segments of that populace were willing to put a person like roboow in power which shows some of their mindset.

The differences that JL, PL and SL have is that they receive some income outside of the IC, mainly from their ports (Berbera, Bosaso, Kismayo) they have foreign patronage that is able to directly invest and support the heads of these places (UAE For SL/PL and Kenya for JL outside of a AMISOM contingent) and this allows them to be more so independent. However JL has some similarities to the aforementioned areas in key ways as well that make it a special case.

Having said that I do agree that if there was no outside presence many of the people we see in power today would not be able to do so, in many ways the interference masks up a lot of the lingering wounds with a proverbial bandage. Only 1p1v will be able to remedy this, however many of the current fms leaders are trying to push this down the road which is a dangerous prospect.
not only do they not want 1p1v they are also against multiple location for MP selection. i asked myself this question if waare/lafatagreen or madoobe are secure in their position why would they care if it 1 place or 50 places? why are they fighting tooth and nail to make sure MPS are selected from 1 place only (farmaajo fought hard to add a second location)

then you have clowns celebrating this as if they have defeated farmaajo or won anything, not knowing the very same thing they are celebrating about is the same thing that is shouting "I AM INSECURE ABOUT MY POSITION"

a FMS leader that fully controls his territory would not care about how many locations the mps are selected from. Which is again why i am saying the whole thing is build on complete falsehood and will collapse the moment AMISOM leaves somalia, heck even today no one south of gaalkacyo controls more land or more people then mucalimo, not waare nor lafatagreen.

Madoobe has been in kismaayo for 8 years and still only controls what the kenyans gave him 8 years ago without adding a single inch.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Halmogg » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:12 pm

I agree, many bullshit paper mamuuls. The worst gotta be Hirshabelle
Mainy due to security and revenues. Hirshabelle wont last 10 mins without Amisom. It would improve eventually over time hopefully.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby paperino » Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:48 pm

Mainy due to security and revenues. Hirshabelle wont last 10 mins without Amisom. It would improve eventually over time hopefully.
Hirshabelle has one of the most fertile lands in Somalia. How come it isn't able to generate revenues?

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby balwarama » Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:14 pm

So the Midgaans don't want or can't handle a decent push back against their constant vitriol and attacks on the noble and blessed Ogaden nation?
Stop removing my posts, cunts!!

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Django » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:09 pm

Mainy due to security and revenues. Hirshabelle wont last 10 mins without Amisom. It would improve eventually over time hopefully.
Hirshabelle has one of the most fertile lands in Somalia. How come it isn't able to generate revenues?
I am puzzled ask yourour resident caucasian to explain.

They also neighbour benadir and could make a kill on agricultural produce yet our resident caucasian is busy about Villa ugandishu.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby UgaaskaBarakaysan » Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:47 pm

Warkaan wa xaqiqatan, Somalia as it is now is like a house of cards and the only thing holding it together is the IC and AMSIOM. There has been no bottom up rehabilitation of the state and thus this top down approach can't be sustained unless 1P1V is implemented.

As you said places like Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Koonfur Galbeed are only functioning due to the IC and AMISOM because of three truths that make it different to states such as Puntland and Somaliland and to a lesser degree Jubbaland but that is a special case.

Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Koonfurgalbeed have three things that make it non functional as independent states.

1) They don't have a source of income outside of the FGS i.e (Port, Taxation, etc.,)

2) They don't provide security services independently of AMISOM and would not last for even a day if those outside forces were to leave.

3)There are no services they provide to the populace in the areas that come under their jurisdiction, this can be insurgent held areas in Galmudug's case (CeelBuur, Ceeldheere, Xarardheere etc.,) or in Hirshabelle's case if you go on the road in many areas you will be taxed by insurgents and they hold sway in much of the region. For koonfurgalbeed the situation was volatile even with the selection of the current leader there and some segments of that populace were willing to put a person like roboow in power which shows some of their mindset.

The differences that JL, PL and SL have is that they receive some income outside of the IC, mainly from their ports (Berbera, Bosaso, Kismayo) they have foreign patronage that is able to directly invest and support the heads of these places (UAE For SL/PL and Kenya for JL outside of a AMISOM contingent) and this allows them to be more so independent. However JL has some similarities to the aforementioned areas in key ways as well that make it a special case.

Having said that I do agree that if there was no outside presence many of the people we see in power today would not be able to do so, in many ways the interference masks up a lot of the lingering wounds with a proverbial bandage. Only 1p1v will be able to remedy this, however many of the current fms leaders are trying to push this down the road which is a dangerous prospect.
not only do they not want 1p1v they are also against multiple location for MP selection. i asked myself this question if waare/lafatagreen or madoobe are secure in their position why would they care if it 1 place or 50 places? why are they fighting tooth and nail to make sure MPS are selected from 1 place only (farmaajo fought hard to add a second location)

then you have clowns celebrating this as if they have defeated farmaajo or won anything, not knowing the very same thing they are celebrating about is the same thing that is shouting "I AM INSECURE ABOUT MY POSITION"

a FMS leader that fully controls his territory would not care about how many locations the mps are selected from. Which is again why i am saying the whole thing is build on complete falsehood and will collapse the moment AMISOM leaves somalia, heck even today no one south of gaalkacyo controls more land or more people then mucalimo, not waare nor lafatagreen.

Madoobe has been in kismaayo for 8 years and still only controls what the kenyans gave him 8 years ago without adding a single inch.

When someone has always been irrelevant or non existent in positions of power they will boast about having an empty title to mask their insecurities. As was said many of these paper states don't control anything and are guarded by AMISOM in a few buildings anything outside of that they have no authority. And rely on poorly equipped militias to fight against the insurgents.

The FMS "leaders" only want one voting place so they can bring representatives that will work towards their interests, if you have multiple areas to choose your mps then they will be beholden to the communities that brought them. Hopefully this is implemented soon and if not, It will be interesting to see what happens when the amisom mandate is over and it's back to survival of the fittest, many of the people you see acting like they are players will have to go back to their positions of irrelevancy since they got no muruq :lol:

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Caytame » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:10 am

So the Midgaans don't want or can't handle a decent push back against their constant vitriol and attacks on the noble and blessed Ogaden nation?
Stop removing my posts, cunts!!
It's a therapy in session, this is like a sanctuary place for them. :lol:
this is where they come to engage in public therapy and make each other feel better. :lol:

idk about you, but it makes me feel good knowing there are niggas who crying about us 24/7.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Voltage » Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:21 pm

So the Midgaans don't want or can't handle a decent push back against their constant vitriol and attacks on the noble and blessed Ogaden nation?
Stop removing my posts, cunts!!
Do you notice how absolutely nobody took your bait? Nice try. Ogaden on this site became magaca layskaga qaraabto.

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Re: If Amisom left Somalia today

Postby Nomand » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:40 pm

Warkaan wa xaqiqatan, Somalia as it is now is like a house of cards and the only thing holding it together is the IC and AMSIOM. There has been no bottom up rehabilitation of the state and thus this top down approach can't be sustained unless 1P1V is implemented.

As you said places like Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Koonfur Galbeed are only functioning due to the IC and AMISOM because of three truths that make it different to states such as Puntland and Somaliland and to a lesser degree Jubbaland but that is a special case.

Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Koonfurgalbeed have three things that make it non functional as independent states.

1) They don't have a source of income outside of the FGS i.e (Port, Taxation, etc.,)

2) They don't provide security services independently of AMISOM and would not last for even a day if those outside forces were to leave.

3)There are no services they provide to the populace in the areas that come under their jurisdiction, this can be insurgent held areas in Galmudug's case (CeelBuur, Ceeldheere, Xarardheere etc.,) or in Hirshabelle's case if you go on the road in many areas you will be taxed by insurgents and they hold sway in much of the region. For koonfurgalbeed the situation was volatile even with the selection of the current leader there and some segments of that populace were willing to put a person like roboow in power which shows some of their mindset.

The differences that JL, PL and SL have is that they receive some income outside of the IC, mainly from their ports (Berbera, Bosaso, Kismayo) they have foreign patronage that is able to directly invest and support the heads of these places (UAE For SL/PL and Kenya for JL outside of a AMISOM contingent) and this allows them to be more so independent. However JL has some similarities to the aforementioned areas in key ways as well that make it a special case.

Having said that I do agree that if there was no outside presence many of the people we see in power today would not be able to do so, in many ways the interference masks up a lot of the lingering wounds with a proverbial bandage. Only 1p1v will be able to remedy this, however many of the current fms leaders are trying to push this down the road which is a dangerous prospect.
not only do they not want 1p1v they are also against multiple location for MP selection. i asked myself this question if waare/lafatagreen or madoobe are secure in their position why would they care if it 1 place or 50 places? why are they fighting tooth and nail to make sure MPS are selected from 1 place only (farmaajo fought hard to add a second location)

then you have clowns celebrating this as if they have defeated farmaajo or won anything, not knowing the very same thing they are celebrating about is the same thing that is shouting "I AM INSECURE ABOUT MY POSITION"

a FMS leader that fully controls his territory would not care about how many locations the mps are selected from. Which is again why i am saying the whole thing is build on complete falsehood and will collapse the moment AMISOM leaves somalia, heck even today no one south of gaalkacyo controls more land or more people then mucalimo, not waare nor lafatagreen.

Madoobe has been in kismaayo for 8 years and still only controls what the kenyans gave him 8 years ago without adding a single inch.

When someone has always been irrelevant or non existent in positions of power they will boast about having an empty title to mask their insecurities. As was said many of these paper states don't control anything and are guarded by AMISOM in a few buildings anything outside of that they have no authority. And rely on poorly equipped militias to fight against the insurgents.

The FMS "leaders" only want one voting place so they can bring representatives that will work towards their interests, if you have multiple areas to choose your mps then they will be beholden to the communities that brought them. Hopefully this is implemented soon and if not, It will be interesting to see what happens when the amisom mandate is over and it's back to survival of the fittest, many of the people you see acting like they are players will have to go back to their positions of irrelevancy since they got no muruq :lol:
Yes, either way, 1pv1 or amisom leaving is the same to us. What is limiting us is this bullshit amisom crap.


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