For a long time, we didn't know what afwerki, abiye and farmaajo discussed in their meetings. Farmaajo said nothing, while abiye was on Ethiopian national TV saying Somalia will join Ethiopia, Ethiopia shouldn't be landlocked while Somalia has so much coastline that it doesn't even use, there's no reason to have two armies and economies etc....However, what he was leaving out, probably avoiding to anger amharas was that this horn integration would include Eritrea as well. How? Afwerki is already a dictator in eritrea, and he has exactly zero opposition there, if both Ethiopia and Somalia could do the same, then both abiye and farmaajo would mold into full blown dictator like afwerki. After achieving this goal, it would be easier to implement whatever policies the three men want since they'd only have to deal with each other. However, to do this, Ethiopia would have to get Tigray to fall in line since they have so much influence and power, and now afwerki is helping them do just that which means this war was planned. Couple this with the Ethiopian commandos sent to kismaayo to capture axmed madoobe, the Ethiopian soldiers sent to Gedo and, Baydhabo to rig the election in farmaajo's favor, and the troops trained in Eritrea for farmaajo who have now since returned to xamar, and everything becomes clearer. They met help each other stay in power, quell all 'rebel' groups in each other's country and the other two would help in this, farmaajo labelling onlf as a terrorist organization(to help abiye) comes to mind, I guess returning the favor of abiye sending his soldiers to get farmaajo reelected. Now tigray has already being labelled as a terrorist group in both Ethiopia and Eritreat.
if Abiye wins this war, you can expect a full scale war on JL first, then PL, and farmaajo will attempt to replace both with yes men like he did in other states, like abiye did in Ethiopia. This also hinges on farmaajo winning reelection.
