FYI:"Gedo" standoff isn't about Gedo/Farmajo; it's about Awlyahan & Biyamaal & Gaaljecel, etc

[Voltage]

Recently, I described the concept of "Audience vs. Constituency" to describe how multiple channels of communication can exist.

Ahmed Madoobe and Deni and those invested in legitimizing the KDF Vichy charade in Kismaayo have recently made a sudden, impractical death at the alter type of obsessive stand on "Gedo."

1. Well just prior to this, Ahmed Madoobe and Deni signed the Electoral agreement in Mogadishu

2. In it, Jubbaland was given two electoral locations; Kismaayo (Lower Jubba) and Garbaharey (Upper Jubba or Gedo).

3. The situation in Gedo is 100% what it was at that time. Virtually nothing has changed in Gedo that would explain Madoobe/Deni's signature then and their coordinated, alarmed grandstanding now..

4. The only thing that has happened is the stunning and widespread defection of clans originally told to vote in Kismaayo who have refused and announced they wanted to be included in a new Gedo voting list.

5. Among these clans, a significant plurality of Jubbaland's entire clan diversity represented by their highest traditional leaders---is included even the Cawlyahan, the largest section of Ahmed Madoobe's own Ogaden clan living in Somalia. From their MP Hamza Sh to their universally acknowledged Ugaas Qorane, they have announced as well their desire to have their vote moved to Gedo/Garbahaarey.

6. If this were to succeed, what it says about Ahmed Madoobe and his "admin" in Kismaayo would be so damning, so irreparable in reputation and character, and so existentially dangerous to whatever little "legitimacy" barely holding this charade that whatever can be gleaned from his standoff is inversely just how fearful he is about the "Kismaayo Defection" towards Gedo.

So really, the usual persons seem to be completely unaware about anything remotely under the surface as usual.

This is why virtually no one responded to the Gedo stunt in the Partnership conference and why in the end, what Madoobe wants to achieve by this is a "compromise" where they let go of "Gedo" but in exchange the electoral agreement is " final" and Kismaayo has the same clan list.

Nevermind that the ignorant persons are so wrong about "no voting in Gedo," but really neither Marehan nor Farmaajo Gov are even taking this seriously at all----because Madoobe's fight isn't even targeting them!

Thers is an entire plurality of Jubbaland's clan communities Madoobe is quietly targeting and IT IS THEY WHO WILL BE DEFENDING THEMSELVES SOON.

Madoobe and Deni may be using the worthless and aimless "madasha" and resentful creatures like someone here for his entirely selfish reasons, but I can assure you soon, the silent target and "majority of Jubbaland" will deconstruct this farce.

[Sbashi]

These guys don't understand it. Ultimately those mps will play a large role in electing farmaajo, and even a larger role in whether jubbaland will stay in madoobe's hands. if a xalal mps are elected he will be kicked out quickly.

[Caytame]

more calacal
53 days left. I hope farmaajo picked the Nigerian toilet he'll die on.

[grandpakhalif]

Gedo issue is done, Garboharay will reign supreme, the fool Madoobe cant force elders to vote in Kismayo they are fleeing the dulmi of this corrupt monster.

[Voltage]

For Reference:

1. Here is the October letter written by Ugas Qorane--- the traditional chief of Cawlyahan sub-clan.
   • The Cawlyahan are most powerful section of Ahmed Madoobe's own Ogaden Clan ínside of Somalia.
     
     He essentially says the election of their MP under 4.5 is their prerogative and not Ahmed Madoobe's and they will decide where suits them in the two Jubbaland locations of Kismaayo and Garbahaarey.
2. Shortly after, Cawlayahan decided to request their election location be moved to Garbahaarey in Gedo instead of Kismaayo in a public clan meeting.
   • Here Ugaas Qorane gives a 20 minute public address announcing their clan decision. Among the reasons for wanting to be moved to Garbahaarey, the Ugas cites electoral indepedence, integrity, security, rule of law, and freedom from compulsion and duress.
     
     He basically said there is Tyranny in Kismaayo under Ahmed Madoobe and Liberty in Garbahaarey under the Gedo Regional Admin named by the Federal Government.
3. Here is Hamza Sheikh, the sitting MP of Cawlyahan/Ogaden and one of the most powerful female politicians in the country. She is also someone who was favorable to Madoobe in the begining, before becoming disillusioned by his naked turn to warlordism and petty gangsterism.
   • At 3:11, concurring with the traditional leader of her clan in requesting their location change to Garbaharey, she quite literally uses the word "safe /safety" to make her choice implying being pushed to vote in Kismaayo under Madoobe carries an " existential threat" to life, liberty, or both.
4. Similary in the same video after her, other leaders of some of the biggest clans/communities in Jubbaland speak similarly announcing their request to be moved to Garbaharey instead of Kismaayo as a location to exercise their MP vote.
   • Among the leaders are the Sultan of Biyamaal and the Ugaas of Gardheere Samaale.
     
     Incidentally, Biyamaal is the strongest Dir clan in Jubbaland while Gardheere Samaale is the strongest Hawiye clan in the state.
     
     At 6:03 they are all asking to be to be moved to Garbaharey for the same reasons as above.

[Voltage]

In my estimation, with the gravity surrounding the concerns and fears communicated by these civil society representatives------- there should be 0 "compromise" on this matter.

1. What has been expressed is conscientious dissent
   
2. There should be ZERO compulsion on this matter
   
3. Especially for reasons of political expediency
   
4. Otherwise there is culpability and negligence.

Moreover, there should be ZERO CONFUSION about the ethical and moral liabilities involved.

Carrying out the franchise should be empowering----not dehumanizing; being forced to weigh the cost of personal sacrifice.


This is beyond politics; beyond the petty, reductionist factionalism kind Madoobe understands.


This is about Human Rights.

[Caytame]

LET THIS BE HEARD LOUD AND CLEAR!

Farmaajo has 54 days.



THERE'S ZERO DOUBT EVERYTHING I HAVE JUST SAID.