TPLF recapture of Mek'ele and Abiy calls for Negotiations!

[sahal80]

OLA have also surrounded Addis Ababa.

I HIGHLY doubt Farmaajo would have supported an invasion into Puntland, it would be a grave mistake dooming Somalia back to 91. Ethiopia barely survived Sacad militias and were forced to withdraw, besides, WHO would fight this war? Hawiye? Isaaq? Again, I doubt it, there would be no incentive, if anything it should be the more alarming to them seeing as they could be next themselves.

Today it's not about qabiil wars, its more intra qabiil wars, aka sub-clans competing with each other. There is NO reason why one sub should declare war against another tribe just to have another sub go behind his back and move in, Somalis are woke now.

let me explain to you easily.Wannabe dictator Mooge has entered into an integration agreement' with Abiy and Afwerki and a large part of it was kept secret but on the surface it was calling for a political, economic and military integration between these three countries that will be benefit more the landlocked Ethiopia and Eritrea at the expense of Somalia because Eritrea would secure Ethiopia's borders with Sudan and occupies the Tigray region and at the same time they both would occupy Somalia in the name of integration and a single army. They planned that after Amisom they would deploy Ethiopian and Eritrean forces in the name of integration instead of the Somali security transitional plan http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/africa ... 885210.htm

There was also london security pact funded by the donors wich was calling to train 3,000 soldiers for each state in line with the federal system. For example, Hiiraan in the past was militarily affiliated with Dusmareeb's 21th division and Gedo with baydhabos 60th division and now they were changed to JL 43th division based in Kismayo and Hirshabelle 27th division based in Baladweyne. Garowe still has its old 54th division as PL and Hargeysas 27th is gone. 21th now is limited to Galmudug so that there would be no security mixing between the FMS.
yes for balkanization
https://goobjoog.com/english/security-r ... arliament/

Mooge tried to get rid of this plan (that why he sent non JL troops to Gedo)which he signed in London and it was planned during the reign of Hassan Sheikh and he replaced it with the Ethopian and Eritrean plan. according this "integration plan" they would never withdraw because it was supposed to have one single army therefore PL was part of their security plan under this "integration" As for JL they tried to invade it with Eritrean-trained forces numbering 5000 even before this plan along with the Ethiopian forces but they failed. The outbreak of war in Tigray thwarted their plans in Somalia and the new US administration is interventionist like the democrats did before in Libya, Egypt and Syria so they intervened in favor of Tigray.
They also imposed secret sanctions on Mooge preventing them from aiding him in his failed extension.

[Gubbet]

I will say 1 thing; Isayas Afeworki knows the Tigrayans better than Abiy could.

If this was Abiy led war, I would believe ENDF has had a set back.

But this is a war led by Isayas.

Just remember;

1.Ethiopia is MOUNTAINOUS amd the extreme is Tigray.
2. A war of attrition can be played there for a considerable time using highlands as natural cover.
3. At this point with broken supply lines and 100% surrounded it is not in TPLF interests to he drawn OUT into a defensive position holding a territory.

The fact they are even foolish to go towards Mekelle tells me;

A. They were allowed to, even manipulated to do so by bringing ita defenses down
B. They took a bait set for them.

Abiy would never let them take Mekelle.

Isayas would.

Because Isayas wants to crush the TPLF generationally, not just eke out a technical or tactical victory in a rebellion.

I would even add the bait may have more than one objective; bring them out from mountainous caverns yes, but also

RESET THE INTERNATIONAL PR NEGATIVES.

The offer of negotiations is insult to injury to a wounded and vengeful TPLF that will be buoyed by rising self-confidence informed by the "capture" of "Mekelle."

They will not accept it; in fact they are even more likely to spit at it and if their advisors get through to them to public play along, the Abiy and Isayas will play so sarcastically saliently the Tigrayans will be forced to flick them off in anger.

Just that storyline is enough to give the ENDF all it needs to reset the pr narrative.

Then watch Isayas put on his gloves and look over the hillside at Badme to see the trap that corners TPLF last conventional operations.

Just study this man war leadership during Eritrean War of Liberation and the 1999 border war.

He is a master of war over Ethiopia"s northern Highlands.

[theyuusuf143]

Lesson learned do not phuk with northerners

[Phinks]

Nine: Amhara camp are the only centralists in Ethiopia, they will be dealt with soon enough. I've been hearing some rumours that Oromo have already tagged Amhara families and villages that have been living in Oromia for centuries for extermination, things are about to get heated.

Somalis on the other hand are doing way better, there are no mass displacements occurring unlike neighboring Ethiopia, neither is there a major war going on, we've got Syrians, yemnites and Chinese moving in. Ethiopias policy of establishing a federalist system of governance in Somalia is what's going to ensure it's demise, meanwhile Somalia is improving on all fronts and going on an upward trajectory.

Sahal: I'm aware of these backdoor secretive dealing going on between the FGS and Ethiopia/Eritrea, but that's hardly indicative of planning a regional war.

I know you have your doubts about Farmaajo, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt, IF what you are speculating is true and I'm in the wrong, then wallahi Farmaajo is hands down the most idiotic foolish inept politician we've had in somali HISTORY. There is simply no way that scenario will play out for Ethiopia and Eritrea taking over Somalia like that, no way. It would also be a major PR disaster for MX, that's why I doubt Farmaajo would sign off on something like that, it's just not feasible.

[NGM]

Ethiopians are celebrating end of war in the country, while Zoomalis are still killing each other, dividing each other and dissing their own president freaking hell 68 IQ nation can't get any dumber.

[Nomand]

10,000 soldiers are not needed to liberate kismaayo. rashid abdi is just making up things.

[Tallman77]

10,000 soldiers are not needed to liberate kismaayo. rashid abdi is just making up things.

True said langaabka reer koshin cannot even contribute 10 men to fight for kismaayo.

[Nomand]

10,000 soldiers are not needed to liberate kismaayo. rashid abdi is just making up things.

True said langaabka reer koshin cannot even contribute 10 men to fight for kismaayo.

what does reer kooshin or how many men they field in the battle ground have anything to do with anything on this thread?

or is barre hiiraale still in your nightmares. hiiraale only karbashed MJ he left poor ogadeen refugees alone in afmadow.

infact you know that during morgans time in kismaayo, ogadeen where banned because the hundreds of MJ Jees killed in kismaayo. it was hiiraale who lifted the ban and allowed ogadeen to live in kismaayo.

[Tallman77]

10,000 soldiers are not needed to liberate kismaayo. rashid abdi is just making up things.

True said langaabka reer koshin cannot even contribute 10 men to fight for kismaayo.

what does reer kooshin or how many men they field in the battle ground have anything to do with anything on this thread?

or is barre hiiraale still in your nightmares. hiiraale only karbashed MJ he left poor ogadeen refugees alone in afmadow.

infact you know that during morgans time in kismaayo, ogadeen where banned because the hundreds of MJ Jees killed in kismaayo. it was hiiraale who lifted the ban and allowed ogadeen to live in kismaayo.

Tell me which tuulo reer koshin live in Somalia your folks are in DDS mate cagjar is your president deal with it no amount of threats and counter threats will make you relevant especially now that smile has even put your reer koshinimo into question.

[Waachis]

It's simply not sustainable to fight a popular guerrilla movement on its own turf. So, Abiy, learning from mengistu's blunders, withdrew, is going to now re-group, recruit, and strategize. No doubt, TPLF will now be in a tough spot- if it takes the offensive, it will risk a more drawn out, war that will harm tigrayans more than benefit them- and also, risk losing even more territory [Eritrea took their disputed lands, Amhara took lands, and both are entrenched, watching events carefully]. and also, Abiy will not restore internet, communications, etc, let the tplf do that seeing as they're the govt- will be his response most likely. now tplf has to generate revenue, pay salaries of workers there, rebuild, etc, all on its own- and the roads to the outside world are all guarded by hostile forces on all sides-amhara, afar, eritrea, all hostile.

[Waachis]

OLA have also surrounded Addis Ababa.

I HIGHLY doubt Farmaajo would have supported an invasion into Puntland, it would be a grave mistake dooming Somalia back to 91. Ethiopia barely survived Sacad militias and were forced to withdraw, besides, WHO would fight this war? Hawiye? Isaaq? Again, I doubt it, there would be no incentive, if anything it should be the more alarming to them seeing as they could be next themselves.

Today it's not about qabiil wars, its more intra qabiil wars, aka sub-clans competing with each other. There is NO reason why one sub should declare war against another tribe just to have another sub go behind his back and move in, Somalis are woke now.

[tweet][/tweet]

[grandpakhalif]

Waachis Oromo.need to support Brother Abby and destroy the TPLF threat. You know they have remenants hiding in Kismayo the orphans of Gabre and we must eliminate them.

[zidane88]

Abiye succumbed from the western pressure hence his withdrawal from Tigre region. His main objective was to steal the election and there were two factors against that. One is TPLF, the other OLF ( whose war had been ongoing) but the west was silent about it. The vocal Oromo Nationalists like Jawar Mohamed and Bekele Gebra he imprisoned them.

Now, the sham election has happened there's no reason he continue the war when Ereterian troops are already withdrawing. Winning the majority seats now, waiting for his innaguration, and he's ready for a negotation with everyone. Same thing our own clown tries to duplicate but failed.

[mahoka]

It's simply not sustainable to fight a popular guerrilla movement on its own turf. So, Abiy, learning from mengistu's blunders, withdrew, is going to now re-group, recruit, and strategize. No doubt, TPLF will now be in a tough spot- if it takes the offensive, it will risk a more drawn out, war that will harm tigrayans more than benefit them- and also, risk losing even more territory [Eritrea took their disputed lands, Amhara took lands, and both are entrenched, watching events carefully]. and also, Abiy will not restore internet, communications, etc, let the tplf do that seeing as they're the govt- will be his response most likely. now tplf has to generate revenue, pay salaries of workers there, rebuild, etc, all on its own- and the roads to the outside world are all guarded by hostile forces on all sides-amhara, afar, eritrea, all hostile.

How is it that 4 million Tigray can take on Ethiopia and Eritrean combined might and still win but 30 million oromo is under Ethiopia’s boot? This is not an insult from me but rather a question. Does this inspire the oromo people? Are they going to learn from Tigray? What’s oromo public saying currently

[mahoka]

Abiye succumbed from the western pressure hence his withdrawal from Tigre region. His main objective was to steal the election and there were two factors against that. One is TPLF, the other OLF ( whose war had been ongoing) but the west was silent about it. The vocal Oromo Nationalists like Jawar Mohamed and Bekele Gebra he imprisoned them.

Now, the sham election has happened there's no reason he continue the war when Ereterian troops are already withdrawing. Winning the majority seats now, waiting for his innaguration, and he's ready for a negotation with everyone. Same thing our own clown tries to duplicate but failed.

“Same thing our own clown tries to duplicate but failed”

I hope you aren’t talking about farmaajo, he isn’t your leader, cagjar is your president my friend