You are right to be suspicious. I would not be surprised if this was a political battle for resources within HG. It could even be more like a quiet battle for semi-permanent supremacy within HG is the aim to achieve a clear, definite, stable hierarchy.
Cayr was broken by Farmajo disarming Ahlu Sunnah. Also Cayr is the most vulnerable member of HG. Cayr is surrounded by Marehan on the NW/SW axis, Wacaysle/Murusade/Al Shabab in Elbur, and permanent conflict with Hawadle in the south (Matabaan). These guys are out for the battle of #1 in HG. They are not in the competition at all and have not been since Abdullahi Yusuf and even they know it.
Galmudug was started by Sacad. Saleebaan in competition started Himan/Heeb. To unite, Galmudug had to move to Adado. But when Galmudug finally moved to Dusamareb, Saleebaan were compensated with Presidency. It was the 1st time Galmudug had a non-Sacad President. No one appreciates it, but that was the single biggest disruption in HG since Aideed vs Caato and even that was within Sacad. There has never existed in memorable or even oral Somali history, where the highest political leader of something equally representing all 3 major HG clans was not a Sacad. Saleebaan has led something in Saleebaan's name,but never in the name of "HG" has there been any other leader but Sacad. The disruption was even more significant that it was Saleebaan and not even Cayr, whom Sacad feared more as a replacement. This was equally informing to Sacad and Saleebaan or basically the more resentful or disempowering Sacad felt, equally Saleebaan was inversely more confident and empowered. That plus the investment In Adado as temporary capital of Galmudug in the long standoff with Ahlu Sunnah was mutually reinforcing for the new ambitious Saleebaan.
I think that event was trigger A.
The last few years there was open conflict between Sacad and Wagarda/Marehan. The western border of Mudug went from a quiet, forced salemate since the 90's to fire and brimstone and the worst conflict north of Hiiraan in decades. Sacad basically lost the forced stalemate that was in their favor inherited through Aidid and USC actions in the 90's. Not only did they no longer have the access to grazing in parts of the rich grazing west of the North/South highway, but just as significantly there was no longer peace on their most vulnerable front. By virtue of conflict, you have to move back from the fault line. Sacad that used to look West for grazing/seasonal migration had to go back to looking East towards the coast as the standard for the first time since 90"s. Well, all those two decades they were seasonally migrating West, Saleebaan had moved in to take the routes they no longer used. This coincided with almost overnight post-civil war Somali development of "settlement/settling." So it is no longer just pressure on grazing routes that is caused by Sacad's new reality, but really it is now about deegaan and that comes into the political competition between Sacad and Saleebaan. All the way to the town of Hobyo, this is a faultline.
I think this situation is trigger B.
The port of Hobyo is being built after years and years of talking about it. Well moving from talk to building also came with a change from a community-informed way of looking at it one about competition with the entrance of money and greed.Who stands to benefit? Who is going to control logistics? Who is going to be supplying services in demand? Who will even be gaining from controlling routing stations and access points? Camaara is the biggest settlement between Hobyo and all the rest of the major towns and economic heart of Galmudug. Camaara is also ground zero in the intersection of the clan grazing and settlement right at the faultline outside Hobyo.
I think this development is Trigger 3
Let us look at the area in question;
- This is the route between Hobyo and all the rest major towns and economic heart of Galmudug. Notice where Camaara is.
- This is the political/administrative map of Galmudug with the clan boundary ("faultline") between Sacad and Saleebaan transposed over the Hobyo District which includes Hobyo and Camaara.
- This is a transposition of the clan, geography, and economy for the same area.
The result is called a "nexus."
The presence of a nexus is a primary indicator of what is the true "genesis" of a conflict.
Your suspicion that there might be more to this story than "Shabaab" is not without merit.
This just happened this week and when you include it into the larger narrative, it fits exactly a pattern already described by Voltage.OCTOBER 13, 2021 BY NEWS OFFICE
MALAYSHIYA-BEELEED XOOG KU QABSADAY DEKEDA HOBYO
Malayshiya-beeleed hubaysan ayaa xoog kula wareegay dekedda magaalada Hobyo ee Gobolka Mudug kadib markii lagu murmay badeecado ganacsi oo laga dejin lahaa halkaas.
Wararka ayaa sheegaya in malayshiyaadkaas lacag weydiisteen ganacsato doonayay in ay badeecado ka dejistaan dekedda magaalada Hobyo kadibna ganacsatadu diiday in ay bixiyaan lacagtaas.
Malayshiyaadka ayaa dalbanaya in la siiyo cadad lacageed oo cayiman si ay u fasaxaan dekedda islamarkaana looga soo dejiyo badeecadaha ganacsiga ee xanniban.
Tallaabadaas ayaa xiisad ka abuurtay degmada Hobyo kadib markii ganacsatada qaarkood la soo baxeen hubkooda.
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