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NEWS ANALYSIS
Rogue states within states
- Anna Badkhen, Chronicle Staff Writer
Sunday, July 30, 2006
When eight Israeli soldiers were killed and two more captured in a cross-border incursion from Lebanon three weeks ago, Israel called it "an act of war." What has erupted since then has looked largely like a war between two countries.
But the aggressor was not the state of Lebanon: It was the militant group Hezbollah, acting outside the control of Lebanon's government, even though it operates freely within the country's borders.
In policy circles, Hezbollah is called a "nonstate actor," a somewhat academic term for radical groups -- al Qaeda perhaps being the best known -- that answer to no central government and that are increasingly roiling the global stage.
How to defeat or even contain such groups is a question of growing concern to governments, large and small.
"It's probably the most difficult issue facing America and other countries there is," said Stephen Cohen, an expert on South Asia at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
From the Middle East to South Asia to the Horn of Africa, the United States and its allies are increasingly forced to deal with such "states within states" that defy central authority, carry out terrorist activities in neighboring countries and threaten to draw outside nations into major regional conflicts.
"It is the major dilemma of warfare in ... the 21st (century)," said David Biale, a professor of Jewish history at UC Davis.
Groups hurt host country
The dilemma is apparent in Israel's current conflict with Hezbollah, which some analysts see as wreaking more damage on the group's host country than on the group itself.
"The question is, 'Whom are you deterring?' Israel can't be deterring the Lebanese state, because it's not after Israel," said Shibley Telhami, an expert on the Middle East at the University of Maryland.
Although it has members in the Lebanese parliament and Cabinet, Hezbollah draws most of its support from Iran and Syria, two countries that are hostile to Israel, and that have hinted they may enter the conflict if Israel's campaign extends closer to Syria.
Israel's attacks on Hezbollah, which is tightly embedded within sectors of Lebanon's population, cause civilian deaths and destruction, driving the affected people further into the arms of Hezbollah, warned Marina Ottaway, an expert on nonstate actors at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
"This is a really vicious circle," Ottaway said. "These periods of open conflict and open violence weaken the moderates ... and strengthen the radicals."
There have been exceptions. In less than two months of intensive air raids in 2001, the United States -- which was using a nonstate actor, the rebel Northern Alliance, as its infantry -- destroyed al Qaeda's training camps in southern Afghanistan and deposed the hard-line Taliban regime, which harbored the group. The majority of Afghans supported the U.S. campaign.
Al Qaeda most feared
Although the United States largely destroyed al Qaeda's haven in Afghanistan, the terrorist network remains the world's most feared -- and probably the hardest to contain -- transnational group.
Since the beginning of the U.S.-led "war on terror," al Qaeda has either been directly involved in or inspired numerous attacks, including bombings in Bali; Mombasa, Kenya; Madrid; Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt; and London, killing hundreds of people.
The al Qaeda branch in Iraq continues to launch frequent bloody attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces, and has sought to take over the leadership of Iraq's insurgency. Outside of Iraq, its November 2005 attacks on hotels in Amman, Jordan, killed more than 50 people.
"The only thing that we found works is if we can convert (groups like al Qaeda) ... isolate them in a state, so that it looks more or less like a state threat," said Chet Richards, a former U.S. Air Force Reserve air attache to Saudi Arabia, who has written extensively about nontraditional enemies the United States is likely to face in the 21st century.
"We did it in Afghanistan. But once ... you've taken down their main state basis, they become basically organized crime."
Although it lost control of Afghanistan in 2001, the Taliban has returned -- this time, as a nonstate actor, which in recent months appears to have gone from strength to strength, launching incursions into Afghanistan out of the tribal provinces of western Pakistan, where the Pakistani government has been unable -- or, some experts say, unwilling -- to rein it in.
Islamabad also has failed to control Pakistan-based groups that launch frequent terrorist acts against its eastern neighbor, India, over New Delhi's control of part of the disputed territory of Kashmir. After July 11 blasts killed more than 180 people in Bombay commuter trains, India has said -- although it has provided no evidence -- that Lashkar-e-Tayyaba was behind the attack. The group, which the U.S. government lists as a terrorist organization linked to al Qaeda, is based in Pakistan.
But while New Delhi regularly lambastes Islamabad for its perceived failure to restrain these groups, experts believe that over time they have come to operate independently.
"Even if these movements are created by somebody else, in the end, they acquire a life of their own," Ottaway said.
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has cracked down on Islamic militants since joining the U.S.-led war against terrorism in 2001. But he is confronted with an alliance of Islamic fundamentalist parties that controls one-fifth of the seats in the parliament, and with a military in which some of its senior ranks support the Taliban and the Kashmiri militants.
Added to the country's inadequate security resources, especially in regions that are virtually impassable, this opposition makes it "probably impossible for Pakistan to control its borders," said Ottaway.
Some observers fear the emergence of another nonstate actor in Iraq. Dan Senor, a former spokesman for the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad, warned in a Wall Street Journal commentary Thursday about the growing strength of the al-Mahdi Army, a militia loyal to firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr's supporters have 30 seats in Iraq's 275-seat National Assembly; his Mahdi Army has infiltrated the Iraqi security forces and runs its own courts that punish Shiites who do not follow the strict Islamic Shariah law.
"Much like (Hezbollah's leader) Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah in southern Lebanon, Muqtada al-Sadr has tried to establish a state within a state inside Iraq," Senor wrote.
The latest example of a nonstate actor sweeping to power is Somalia. There, the Islamist militia of Islamic Courts, a group Washington accuses of having ties with al Qaeda, overpowered the disorganized, U.S.-backed warlords last month in the capital Mogadishu and has clashed with the militia of the U.S.- and U.N.-backed coalition government, which convenes in the western Somali town of Baidoa, and which controls virtually nothing inside Somalia.
On Friday, 18 ministers in the 102-member Cabinet resigned, and the Islamic militia seized the presidential palace in Mogadishu. "Our biggest threat in the future doesn't come from strong states, but from weak states, states that don't control their own territory, states that have no way of resisting terrorist training camps on their territory," said Donald Steinberg, an expert on U.S. national security policy with the International Crisis Group in Brussels.
"The basic strategy is to strengthen weak states around the world, so that they don't become breeding grounds for these transnational threats."
Christopher Hamilton, an expert on counterterrorism at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, pointed to the example of the Palestinian territories, where the militant group Hamas, which Washington lists as a terrorist organization, swept to power in January elections, replacing the weak government of the Fatah party.
"It was a failed state -- there was no law enforcement. The crime, the corruption was unbelievable," Hamilton said. "When you have no legitimate powers, illegitimate powers flow in behind it."
Since then, the Hamas administration has struggled to survive in the face of international sanctions, while Palestinian militants continued to fire rockets into Israel. Armed Hamas members were involved in the capture of Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit, which sparked Israel's military re-entry into Gaza.
Law enforcement needed
Lebanon, which is trying to re-establish itself after three decades of civil war and domination by Syria until it withdrew its troops last year, is another weak state providing fertile grounds for nonstate actors to flourish, said Telhami.
The "rapid Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, which is supposedly a good thing ... created a vacuum of power," he said. "For international security, it's much better to have stable states than weak states."
Apart from authoritarian solutions, one measure the United States and other major powers can take is to help countries like Lebanon build stronger security forces answerable to a central authority, said Hamilton."A strong counterterrorism establishment of law enforcement and intelligence-gathering is an absolute requirement," Hamilton said.
But simply supporting Lebanon's security forces is not enough, said Telhami. Hezbollah has drawn much of its support from the country's largely poor Shiite population by establishing a network of social services, which successive central governments have been either unwilling or unable to provide. It also feeds into the popular discontent over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Telhami noted. "It has to be a careful, patient, multipronged strategy," Telhami said. "One cannot pretend that the ... Hezbollah problem (is) divorced from the fact that the Israeli-Palestinian issue has not been resolved and the Syrian-Israeli issue has not been resolved. As long as they are not resolved, groups (like Hezbollah) will emerge in weak states that cannot resolve them."
This approach can be bolstered by fostering democratic institutions and improving the economic situation on the ground to make the region less supportive of militant groups like Hezbollah, said Wayne White, a former senior Middle East intelligence analyst for the U.S. State Department.
"The way to solve (the Middle East crisis) is creating a democratic and prosperous Middle East," said White. "The question is, when is that going to happen? It could be decades long, it could be generations."
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States within states
Some international militant groups that operate outside the realm of control of their host countries:
Al Qaeda (The Base)
Leader: Osama bin Laden
Strength: Probably several thousand members and associates
Funding: Collects financing through Muslim charities and businesses around the world. Some experts say al Qaeda draws on profits from the international drug and diamond trades, runs businesses, is funded by foreign governments and uses bin Laden's own funds. The 9/11 Commission report said there was no credible evidence to substantiate these allegations. Amount unknown.
History: Established around 1988, al Qaeda is a Sunni fundamentalist organization that wants to establish an Islamic caliphate throughout the world. After being forced out of Sudan, it set up training camps in southern Afghanistan as early as 1989, training more than 5,000 militants there. It organized the deadly simultaneous bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and the attack on the U.S. Navy destroyer Cole in a Yemen harbor in 2000. After al Qaeda attacked the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, the United States destroyed al Qaeda's bases in Afghanistan and deposed the Taliban regime, which harbored the organization. It continues to operate worldwide as a decentralized, secretive network. It claimed responsibility for the bombings of two Bali nightclubs that killed 202 people in October 2002; the March 2004 train bombing in Madrid, which killed 191 people; and the July 2005 subway bombing in London, during which 52 people were killed. Al Qaeda in Iraq -- whose former leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was killed last month -- has proved to be a formidable adversary.
Hamas
(Islamic Resistance Movement)
Leader: Khaled Mashaal (exiled; lives in Damascus, Syria)
Strength: More than 1,000 active members; hundreds of thousands of supporters and sympathizers, mostly Sunni.
Funding: Mostly from Palestinian expatriates, Muslim charities, Persian Gulf donors and Iran. Now that Hamas controls the government, it also has access to Palestinian public funds. The organization's annual budget is estimated between $40 million and $70 million.
History: Founded in Gaza as the Palestinian political arm of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood in December 1987. Its founding charter commits the group to the destruction of Israel, and the creation of an Islamist state across what is now Israel and the Palestinian territories. Hamas is believed to have killed more than 500 people in more than 350 separate terrorist attacks on Israelis since 1993. Most of the attacks have been carried out by suicide bombers, but the organization also uses mortars, short-range rockets and small arms. In addition to its military wing, Hamas runs schools, orphanages, mosques, hospitals and soup kitchens. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Authority's parliamentary elections, and Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas became prime minister. Its continuing refusal to recognize Israel has led to economic sanctions against the Palestinian government.
Hezbollah (Party of God)
Leader: Hassan Nasrallah
Strength: About 500 full-time fighters, all or mostly Shiite Arabs.
Funding: Mostly from Iran, an estimated $20 million to $40 million a month; also from Muslim charities.
History: Founded with the help of Iran in Lebanon, in response to the Israeli invasion and occupation of 1982-2000. In October 1983, Hezbollah sent a truck laden with explosives smashing into the multinational force barracks in Beirut, killing 241 U.S. Marines and 56 French troops. Over the last 24 years, Hezbollah has evolved into a political and social organization that holds seats in Lebanon's parliament and one Cabinet post. Hezbollah maintains cells in North America and Europe, and receives financial aid, weapons and training from Syria and Iran. According to the Department of State, the group boasts several thousand supporters and several hundred militant operatives. The U.S. government has designated Hezbollah an international terrorist organization.
Jaish-e-Mohammed
(Army of Mohammed)
Leader: Maulana Masood Azhar
Strength: Several hundred armed supporters.
Funding: Probably al Qaeda, Pakistani expatriates. Amount unknown.
History: Jaish-e-Mohammed was founded in Pakistan in March 2000, allegedly after Azhar's meeting with Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. Its aim is to unite Indian Kashmir with Pakistan. One of the group's leading members, Sheikh Omar Saeed, has been sentenced to death for the 2001 murder of American journalist Daniel Pearl. After the group was founded it enjoyed state support and Pakistan's state-owned television station broadcast Azhar's recruitment rallies for the fight in Kashmir. In December 2001, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf banned the group, which the United States lists as a terrorist organization. India says it helped carry out the 2001 attack on Parliament in New Delhi. Indian and foreign observers say Pakistan's intelligence agency has actively aided some of the insurgent groups operating in Indian Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim province in northern India. Pakistan denies that it provides these groups with any support.
Lashkar-e-Tayyaba
(Soldiers of the Pure)
Leader: Abdul Wahid Kashmiri
Strength: Several thousand members in eastern Pakistan and Kashmir
Funding: Donations from the Pakistani community in the Persian Gulf and Britain, Islamic charities, Pakistani and Kashmiri businessmen. Also solicits funding through a Web site of its political wing, Jamaat ud Daawa. Amount unknown.
History: Lashkar-e-Tayyaba is one of the three largest and best-trained groups fighting in Kashmir against India. It was created in Pakistan in 1989, is based in Pakistan and is thought to include members of the Taliban. The United States lists Lashkar-e-Tayyaba as a terrorist organization linked to al Qaeda. India holds Lashkar-e-Tayyaba responsible for the December 2001 attack on India's parliament in New Delhi, which killed nine security personnel and parliamentary staff and put the two nations on the brink of a nuclear war. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf banned Lashkar-e-Tayyaba in January 2002 under pressure from the United States. India says Lashkar-e-Tayyaba may be behind the July 11 commuter-train bombings in Bombay, which killed more than 180 people.
Taliban (The Students)
Leader: Mohammad Omar
Strength (current): Several hundred. The core of insurgents is surrounded by a mix of local tribesmen, paid recruits and gangs linked to drug smugglers.
Funding: Rich Middle Eastern and Pakistani donors, drug trade. Amount unknown.
History: The Taliban was formed in September 1994 in southern Afghanistan. Its fighters were initially trained by the Frontier Constabulary, a paramilitary force of Pakistan's Interior Ministry. Heavy infighting between Afghan warlords, which followed the 1989 withdrawal of Soviet troops after a decade-long occupation, paved the way for the Taliban's sweep to power in two-thirds of Afghanistan by mid-1997. In October 2001, after the Taliban refused U.S. demands to extradite Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda members operating in Afghanistan, the United States led a successful military campaign to oust the Taliban. It has since regrouped in Pakistan and operates in southern and southeastern Afghanistan, launching almost daily attacks on international and Afghan forces. Pakistan, which struggles to rein in its western provinces, says it now has no control over the Taliban.
Sources: San Francisco Chronicle archives, Associated Press, BBC, Boston Globe, Center for Contemporary Conflict, Center for Defense Information, Council on Foreign Relations, Federation of American Scientists, GlobalSecurity.org, U.S. State Department
Compiled by Anna Badkhen
Chronicle staff writer Matthew B. Stannard contributed to this report. E-mail Anna Badkhen at
abadkhen@sfchronicle.com.
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