Postby Steeler [Crawler2] » Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:34 am
"As like any war, the actors always and most likely feel that the war would be a little touch on the enemy and it would end fast, but it always turns out to be wrong, and the war lasts for months then turns to years. "
This is not always true, but it is not infrequent that one or both sides miscalculates. For a meaningful analysis of this problem, we should look at this from the Hizbollah viewpoint. Why did Hizbollah initiate hostilities? What does Hizbollah hope to achieve? Clearly Hizbollah knows that even if it can achieve its long term objective of destroying Israel (and I think they realize that that is unrealistic) that would take a VERY long time and a LOT of their own blood. Did Hizbollah initiate this conflict with the intent of starting a general war? Or were they driven by their main sponsor, Iran? And if so, why?
To me the answer is obvious. Iran initiated this conflict in order to draw world attention away from its nuclear program. Iran was well aware that the US would support Israels response against Hizbollah, whatever that was. Therefore, no matter how things shook out, the US was going to lose even more political capital in the world in general, and the Islamic world in particular, thus making it even more difficult for the US to put pressure on Iran politically through the UN. In other words, this fight isn't about Lebanon or Israel at all. It's about Iran.
"I mean today, the US, France, British, Syria, and Iran are all waiting for a call or a sign, to go into war. "
Most certainly none of these states wants a general conflict. The US is knee deep in Iraq, France doesn't want a real fight with anyone anymore, and Syria and Iran know that a war with the US and or Israel would mean their economic destruction. Their economies are rocky as it is, so serious economic disruption could well mean a change in government in either country - and they know it. So I don't think anyone is seeking open conflict at this point.
"there is no way any of the actors of this war can hope for a imediat ceasefire, because its a long way before any one would stop firing."
I don't think the Iranians want an immediate ceasefire. They will wait until the nuclear issue has receded, and then press Hizbollah to seek a ceasefire.