Postby AbdiWahab252 » Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:50 am
[quote="MAD MAC"]Abdi
Qeybdid is Sa'ad and Aweys and Indacadhe are Ayr. How much loyatly can Awale command in your opinion? And where are the Abgal likely to come out of all this. With Musa Sudi out of the picture right now, the last I heard was that Omar Finish had signed on with the courts. If the Sons of Hirab are more or less joined on this one, (and of course I have not mentioned the Harti Abgal or the Suleiman of the Haber Gedir, players in their own right), can Qeybdid break that phalanx? Or was this Islamic Courts unity an illusion? Your take?[/quote]
Awale commands a significant cadre of loyalty among the Sa'ad. His fight in Xamar was supported by a majority of Sa'ad there but those who were pro-ICU have been drastically reduced especially after the ICU headed towards Galkacyo. Awale can now point out that this war indeed is a war against the Sa'ad after the attack on Galkacyo and not one against himself. Even the most die hard ICUer cousin of mine has admitted that the ICu want to cripple the Sa'ad power in general. He is now antiICU solely based on the venture into Sa'ad land in Central Somalia.
Finish is now in Baydhaba. His Abgaal powerbase was eroded along with that of Muse, Bashir Raage and Maxamed Dheere. They failed to consolidate their forces for a joint attack against the pawns of Sheik Sharif and the Cadaani, two ICU members. Overall, the Abgaal are now seeing the ICU revolution for what it is a power grab by the Cayr especially when the ICU resists the formation of Courts in the Lower Shabelle and the murderous rampage and rapes in the Abgaal interior cities of Cel Dheer and Jowhar commited by the Cayr in the ICU forces.
The Suleiman support the ICU as long as it at odds with the Sa'ad. They have yet to recover from the defeats inflicted by the Sa'ad in Mudug and Galgaduud. They hope the ICU will defeat the Sa'ad and allow them to reoccupy Sa'ad lands.
The ICU Unity is an illusion based on using pawns from other qabiils. This game has been played by all factions from Aideed's Government which included notable SNM Veteran and Ex-Somaliland President, AbdiRahman Tuur to Abdullahi Yusuf's government. However, what the ICU have done is the most dangerous: ADDED in ISLAM and JIHAD. This hijacking of Sharia law when it is actually Cayr designs on power is a disturbing development.
EYES/// the ICU uses a few pawns from other qabiils but the bulk of its fighters don't come from that qabiil. In the attack on Qeybdid, the majority of the fighters were CAyr & Suleiman with additional reinforcements from Abgaal, Murusade, Issaq, Oromo and Darood fanatics.