U.S. probe unearths secret war games
By AP
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 which anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops and even then chaos might ensue, documents show.
In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of security needs.
The documents came to light yesterday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute.
"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."
There are now about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.
A spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which sponsored the seminar and declassified the secret report in 2004, declined to comment yesterday because she was not familiar with the documents.
The war games looked at "worst case" and "most likely" scenarios after a war that removed then-Iraqi president Saddam Hussein from power. Some are similar to what actually occurred after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003:
- "A change in regimes does not guarantee stability," the briefings said. "A number of factors including aggressive neighbours, fragmentation along religious and/or ethnic lines, and chaos created by rival forces bidding for power could adversely affect regional stability."
- "Even when civil order is restored and borders are secured, the replacement regime could be problematic -- especially if perceived as weak, a puppet, or out-of-step with prevailing regional governments."
- "A long-term, large-scale military intervention may be at odds with many coalition partners."
