WILL ETHIOPIA ATTACK?

[Cawar]

Why do all Isaaqs sound the same??? well perhaps ...with the exception of Galol...eventhough he does sound like one sometime???

It makes you feel like tis is a Republican indoc-tor-niation..

One calls you Candhoole....the next thing you know everyone of them has copied the name and calls the same.

One dares to call the great Cawar a Bantu...next thing you know...each and everone of them is calling Cawar a Bantu...

Whats up with that??? who is the Carl Rove here???

Galol,

These Ceyr Mafia need to be kept on a leash...way is mahdiyeen with all their bililiqo and millions of foreign aid from Libya to Iran..they want to rule the whole nation....since when does Hawiye have such ambition???
I say Kudos to Zenawi for keeping them on a leash.

[Cilmiile]

Galool,

You are not hospitable to the Cagdheers. That is why they are burning your trucks in Ogaadeeniya and have crippled Isaaq trade with Region 5

As for Ethiopians not being in Somalilland, I was taking this habar jeclo lady guest at our house to her place and we stopped at a shop. While she was inside an Ethiopian family parked next to us. And the kid recently from Northern Somalia recognized their language and exchanged greetings with them.

I asked them how he knows them and he explained that they lived in Tuulo such and such, his mother's hometown in Sanaag. he said they were all over the place. They even drive camels because Somalis nowadays are too lazy to drive them. Hawiye also are employed in that capacity. For Dollars.

For once, stop being narrow-minded and parochial and get your mind in gear. You dont even know the danger that is facing you.

[Basra-]

MY goodness!


Look at you all-- Pseudo Pundits-- discussing somali politics with military view point & know how. This is truly sad-- while the real men are in Somalia Fighting for their country & rights-- all you are sitted here,comfortably underneath your wool blankets typing your way to no where.Well keep the work-- i love reading them anyway.(well at least one thing comes of these discussions, F killer comes out as a normal semi-adult person who actually has some opinions no matter how much incongruent they sound)

[KUN-DILE]

Candhoole
There are sea ports everywhere including tiny Djibouti. If the Ethiopians were to annex a sea port as of today, then surely they are massing their troops in the outskirts of the Kismaio and what have you. It is not Berbera.

But I wouldn't think there is any plan to annex anywhere from the Ethiopian side, they just want to keep the status-qou as it is as long as they can. That means, no Recognition of Somaliland, no peace in Somalia(proper) and the stallmate. They ain't helping Col. Yey to rule Somalia, he is just one of their last sticks that they use to stir the Somalia pot.

[fagash_killer]

wel said kundile no recognition of somaliland and no peace in somalia, its true when they say if somalia is invisible so is somaliland.somaliland is depends on somalia nomatter how much some of them hates them to death we all need each other, and i agree with seikh shariff xassan when he said i call my brothers of puntland and somaliland to join this war.this is not only the survival of somalia but also the survival of all somalis

[Galol]

Cawar

Are you calling me a part-time Isaq? Deeply insulted I am. This man is proper Reer Hashim; of the laba dhagax dhexdood laga soo abuuray subclan. I bet you never heard that before did you?

As for the Ceyrs. I thought it were the sacads that did the robbing and the violence? I must admit I havent heard much about Ceyrs at all till the Wadaads came on the scene. But then I am not Bantu jareer wallaweyn like you.

[fagash_killer]

cawar just read this article written by a isaaq guy.

Somaliland Is Independent From Somalia, But Is It So From Ethiopia?
AbdiRahman Maxamed (haadka) — --- — 24 November, 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Are we independent from Ethiopia? The truth is I do not know! But what I
know is Somaliland and Ethiopia do not have the same interests in Somalia.
In addition, I believe Somaliland has brought many things to the table
while Ethiopia has not even recognized us!

Let me explain first how we do not have the same interests. Ethiopia does
not want a strong Somalia at any point of time while Somaliland badly
needs a strong government that represents all Somalia so that we have
someone to address our recognition issue. We are in Africa, and
recognition is much harder than anyplace else and involves the other
party. Whether it is by direct talks or by the UN's intervention, having
Somalia back will speed our recognition process.

I will come back to Somalia, now can someone tell me what Ethiopia has
brought to our table? Ethiopia today does not recognize Somaliland just
because it feels shy to be the first. On the other hand, Somaliland was
capturing Iitihaad and non Iitihaad people in Somaliland years ago. Are we
giving too much for too little? I was in 2002 when they arrested people
from the fifth region and I wondered why we are interfering in Ethiopian
inner conflict. An elder answered me, they are terrorists; the whole world
is fighting them and we should follow the international laws. I asked him
back: are we strong enough to fight terrorists in the horn of Africa today
when we do not even have water in Hargeisa? The answer was not what I
heard but what I saw. Years later, Real terrorists came down to Somaliland
and killed westerns and planned to disturb our Elections. That is a
shameful fact you will not hear much. People try to avoid terrorists; our
government invited them over! Talk about a policy that made us enter a war
with terrorists, one that put our families and democratic transition in
danger. We placed all that on the Somaliland –Ethiopian table and still,
Ethiopia does not bother itself to recognize Somaliland

Back to our interests in Somalia, today Ethiopia declares war at Somalia.
Just saying that is against the international law, justice and it's
amusing to Somalis in general. Where are our ministers who love keeping
the international law years back? Sadly, our government that we assumed it
stands for peace, freedom and fairness still calls the war- loving
Somali-hating Ethiopia: a friend! In one statement, Riyale said "Ethiopia
has the right to see its interest in Somalia"! What about us Mr.
President? What about Somaliland's interest?

In the article, "Ending Somaliland's self-imposed isolation ", the author
Rashid Nur suggested to stand with the TFG because the UIC declared Jihad
on Ethiopia. I disagree with my brother Nur in the point that the UIC is
the one who started the war. It's Ethiopia that has been supporting war
lords in the last 16 years so that Somalia never stands up. If you asked
me, that is one reason we are not recognized at the moment. Add to that,
it is Ethiopia who is sending troops to Somalia. So I think it's obvious
to be an ally today with who is right and it's more obvious to stand with
who is winning than who is loosing. But I agree this is the chance to end
our self imposed isolation but not in a way that we will pay its price
later on like calling for terrorists.

I am not saying lets declare Jihad at Ethiopia. Somaliland stands for
peace and so we should try our best not to have war in the region. Not in
a shy statement that no one reads, but in action by stopping our friendly
relationship with Ethiopia at this time. Weeks ago both UCID and KULMIYE
questioned our relationship with Ethiopia. Unfortunately, that step was
interrupted by the show that took place in the news which showed the UIC
as a monster and evil enemy to Somaliland.

Back to the table, today UIC is ready to give things. It already offered a
compensation for the genocide the former regime committed to Somaliland.
Weather that makes sense or not, itÂ’s a sign for friendship the both
parties are desperate for. Of course, they want Somaliland to unite with
them. That is exactly what India asks Pakistan every time. So it is time
we understand that and should not take that as a sign of hostility.
Simply, we can calmly say no to union but welcome any cooperation between
the two parties. We should know that every one in Somalia wants Somaliland
and here and there we will find names that we consider war criminals. But
the UIC is at least aware of that and ready to talk about it. This also a
lesson to the USA, UK and Ethiopia who took us for granted and kept
ignoring our quest for recognition.

Why would we let Ethiopian weapons arrive at our ports when we know it
will be used against Somalis?

Let me tell you what is more ridiculous, we are doing that for free!

Somaliland Ha Noolaato



AbdiRahman Maxamed (haadka)
mrabdi@gmail.com

[Cawar]

Galol

Never knew your name stood for a tree.


"This man is proper Reer Hashim; of the laba dhagax dhexdood laga soo abuuray subclan. I bet you never heard that before did you"

No never heard of that...But if anything is a consolation....I am a real Binu Hashim.

[Galol]

Cilmiile

The Dabayaco `official' poet of Siyad Barre Axmed Cali Afyare said this in an usual departure from the norms of the time about the last war to liberate the Ogadens:

Nimanyahow Hargeysiyow Deggani Hawdka iyo Xeebta

Alleylehe dagaalkii Galbeed woow hengalateene

hantidiyo naftaba wow hurteen hanadadiineeye

And what do they do? The fockers turn on us and support Siyad Barre when he attacked us. They became not oppressed Somalis but Daarod clannists. Big mistake. Siyad lost and their cause lost.

And now they burn our lorries bringing them sustenance. Of course we welcome them.

[Galol]

"The more probable theory is the old one which supports the break - up of the old failed state of Somalia. In this case, as a Somalilanders I have no problems whatsoever. But even if that is the more probable theory, I still oppose any harm done by the Xabashi to the Somalis whether its the ICU or any other government in southern Somalia."

Kundile

Brilliant point.

[AbdiWahab252]

Hmm.... This reminds me of a catch 22 situation. The ICU can not be negotiated with as they ultimately want to occupy the whole nation and they use funds and troops from foreign allies. The TFG is using foreign troops from Meles and IGAD yet the TFG is morally bankrupt and lead by a inept President who will stoop to any level to perserve power.

So your focked if the ICU win and your focked in the long term if the TFG wins. Its like being forced to choose how to die.

For the debaters, can't we simply debate without poking personal insults.

My take on the Ethiopian invasion. It will simply allow Zenawi to help defuse the rising tension in Ethiopia. He is using Somalia as a valve to ease off the pressures facing him. There is a lot of internal opposition to Zenawi from all sectors of Ethiopia. This has seeped into the Military too and Zenawi believes an adventure in Somalia would whip up patriotic fervor and shield him from political opposition. A classic case of "Wag the Dog"

However, a military adventure in Somalia poses many risk. The two key ones are that Somalia will end up being a long, bloody insurgency which will drain resources from confronting rebel groups like the OLF & ONLF. The second threat is that Somalia ends up drawing more foreign insurgents to fight and Somalia becomes a mini Iraq, a training ground for all East African radicals.

Zenawi will enter a quagmire in Somalia and will be forced to leave with his tail between his legs.

All of the above doesn't mean that the ICU will win. No, they will be severely weakened and after a series of defeats, the ICU will fragment as each group jostles to maintain its power and influence. Dahir Aweys and Indocaade will lose their power base as more radicals enter and see the current leadership as being out of touch.

The TFG also will suffer. They will be forced to take immense risks for the Ethiopian invaders and will be ordered to march ahead of the Ethiopians who are not keen on doing 90% of the fighting. The TFG forces will see that they are being used as a human shield and again will fragment. I see Abdullahi Yusuf going the way of Samuel Doe or the Afghan President Najibullah after the Soviets left.

The winners are no one. The political landscape will shift and Somalia ends up becoming a hotbed of terrorism. A virtual training ground for all radicals in the East & Southern Africa.

[Galol]

A/wahab

You are a depression-causing bugger arent you? .

How about this: Ethiopia sees the light and doesnt attack. The Wadaads lose their `enemy' and get forced to the mundane tasks of running the nation or at least the part they control. Being moronic and socio-economically illiterate they make a hash of it. People hate them and start a backlash against their petty oppression.

Meanwhile Yusuf and Geddi get their get together and form a really effective cabinet. The people pluck for them and the hated Wadaads lose their God-inspired cockiness and negotiate. Yusuf, never liked, nonetheless gathers enough confidence to come to Mog and form a govt including the most reasonable Wadaads. Puntland joins and Somaliland starts to hammer out a deal.

[Cilmiile]

[quote="KUN-DILE"]Candhoole
There are sea ports everywhere including tiny Djibouti. If the Ethiopians were to annex a sea port as of today, then surely they are massing their troops in the outskirts of the Kismaio and what have you. It is not Berbera.

But I wouldn't think there is any plan to annex anywhere from the Ethiopian side, they just want to keep the status-qou as it is as long as they can. That means, no Recognition of Somaliland, no peace in Somalia(proper) and the stallmate. They ain't helping Col. Yey to rule Somalia, he is just one of their last sticks that they use to stir the Somalia pot.[/quote]


Kud-Dile,

You can bury your head like an ostrich in the sand if you like but your land is in Ethiopian crosshairs. They lost their Eritrean initiative, now it is on to plan B.

Northern Somalia was the original Plan B of Haile Selassie. If his gambit to bring Eritrea under Ethiopian rule failed he was gonna turn his attention to Northern Somalia.

In the event in 1962 Eritrean lawmakers commited constitutional suicide and abrogated The UN mandated Federal Arrangement between the two countries and Ethiopia swallowed them.

Somali lawmakers may be commiting similar Hara Kiri but the main difference is that Ethiopia knows from Bitter experience that swallowing a whole country gives one indigestion.

So they are aiming for a narrow corridor that gives them access to the sea, and they will ethnically cleanse its inhabitants if need be.

In the meantime they will be fomenting conflict and strife in the south to forestall a United Somali response to this obvious land grab.


The Isaaq have a weakness and love for the English that is neither requited nor even recognized or realized.

The English from as far back as world war one were trying to offload Northern Somalia to Italy. That they failed to do was the result of Italian reluctance to take on the task of finishing off the Sayid and his declining insurgency. That and their failure to provide strong assurances in the matter of the meat supply to Aden.

In the early 30s when Selassie came to British Somaliland he was offered the land except for the coast which the British cherished for the access it gave to Somali livestock and control of the shipping lanes.

Selassie refused the deal holding out for the entire territory. Haile Selassie believed that the Axumite kingdom comprised Ethiopia proper as well as Eritrea, some parts of Sudan and Northwestern Somalia. The full annexation of this territory and Eritrea was not so much national policy as it was a divinely ordained destiny to be fullfilled.

Italy was also offered the same deal and likewise refused.



Some documentary support for these arguments:

The last British proposal put to Ethiopia was cession of Zeylac and its corridor in exchange for large parts of the Hawd. Ethiopia gets access to the sea, and the dismayed Somali tribesmen of the Hawd who were cut off by the theoritical boundary would be brought into the fold of British Somaliland.

question of cession of British Somaliland to Italy as part of general settlement after the war; its effect upon the Aden meat supply
Date: 1917.
British Somaliland-Ethiopia border: proposed cession of Zeilah. Part 2. . British Somaliland-Ethiopia border: proposed cession of Zeilah. Part 2. Somaliland: original correspondence The National Archives, Kew
Date range: 1933 - 1934.

Development of a port for Ethiopia in British Somaliland at Loyada including a note on the port at Zeilah [Zeila] by Mr J P F Ogilvie, General Manager of the Franco-Ethiopian Railway. . Development of a port for Ethiopia in British Somaliland at Loyada
Date range: 1942 - 1943.

Somaliland and Ethiopia for the exchange of land corridor leading to Port of Zeila for grazing areas in Haud region of Ethiopia Colonial Office: Central Africa and Aden: Original Correspondence The National Archives, Kew
Date: 1956.

[TZ Somali]

Its a question of how and not wen...

[smooth]

FQ

Excellent article..